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Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China
Alternative Title动态最优多因子组合的华北汛期降水模式误差估计及预报
Yang, J; Wang, QG; Zhi, R; Feng, GL; Feng, GL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate E Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
2011-02
Source PublicationACTA PHYSICA SINICA
ISSN1000-3290
Volume60Issue:2Pages:833-845
AbstractBased on the idea of using the historical-analogue information to revise the prediction errors of National Climate Centre numerical business model, for North China, based on analysis data of the CMAP from 1983 to 2009, 40 pieces of climate indices from NOAA, 27 years of the season prediction model results from 1983 to 2009 and 74 pieces of circulation characteristics materials provided by Weather Diagnostic Forecasting Room of National Climate Center, using the method of combining data analysis and numerical simulation of diagnostic tests, taking the advantage of the prediction error of the key information of similar model from the historical data, by identifying key factors, optimizing allocation of the different factors of different forecasting years, we established specific multi-factor dynamic optimal portfolios to revise prediction errors in different periods of the power-statistical model in North China, and constructed early environmental factors similar to field multiple objective criteria, to develop new technology of revising prediction errors from the power-statistical model based on dynamic optimal combination of multi-factor, and improved the prediction effect in the summer precipitation in North China and the forecasting skills. Results of independent sample return of 2005-2009 shows that, the score of similarity revised method has improved significantly compared with the score of systematic revised method. The method has a good prospect for summer precipitation forecast in North China, and is going to be put into operation.
Other Abstract利用国家气候中心季节预报1983—2009年27年模式预报结果,结合74项环流指数及美国国家海洋局和大气管理局提供的40个气候指数和美国气候预报中心实际降水分析资料,采用资料诊断分析和数值模拟实验相结合的方法,通过多因子的历史相似信息提取预报相似年,获得预报场的误差订正项.在这一订正思路的基础上,考虑前期关键影响因子的选取、多因子组合的优化配置,构建适用于不同预报年的区域动力-统计模式预报误差订正方案.以华北为例,探索多因子最优组合的多元客观相似判据,发展基于多因子动力-统计模式预报误差的动态订正新技术,改善华北夏季降水预报效果,提高预报技巧.通过2005—2009年独立样本回报结果表明,动态...
Keywordset of key factors estimation of model errors precipitation prediction 关键因子集 模式误差估计 汛期降水 预测
Subject AreaPhysics
PublisherCHINESE PHYSICAL SOC
Publication PlaceBEIJING
Indexed BySCIE ; CSCD
Language中文
First Inst
Funding Project国家自然科学基金项目 ; 国家科技支撑计划 ; 公益性行业科研专项
Host of Journal中国物理学会
Project NumberSpecial Scientific Research Fund of Meteorological Public Welfare Profession of China [GYHY200806005] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40875040, 40930952] ; Ministry of Science and Technology of China [2007BAC29B01, 2009BAC51B04]
WOS IDWOS:000287947000124
CSCD IDCSCD:4120494
Funding OrganizationNSFC ; MOST
SubtypeArticle
Department[Yang Jie;
Feng Guo-Lin] Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate E Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China;
[Yang Jie;
Wang Qi-Guang] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;
[Zhi Rong;
Feng Guo-Lin] Natl Climate Ctr, Lab Climate Studies China Meteorol Adm, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
Citation statistics
Cited Times:17[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Cited Times:15[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/119211
Collection大气科学学院
Corresponding AuthorFeng, GL (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Res Temperate E Asia, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Yang, J,Wang, QG,Zhi, R,et al. Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China[J]. ACTA PHYSICA SINICA,2011,60(2):833-845.
APA Yang, J,Wang, QG,Zhi, R,Feng, GL,&Feng, GL .(2011).Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China.ACTA PHYSICA SINICA,60(2),833-845.
MLA Yang, J,et al."Dynamic optimal multi-indexes configuration for estimating the prediction errors of dynamical climate model in North China".ACTA PHYSICA SINICA 60.2(2011):833-845.
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