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Predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method and numerical experiments
Alternative Title基于延伸期可预报性的集合预报方法和数值试验
Zheng, ZH; Feng, GL; Huang, JP(黄建平); Chou, JF(丑纪范); Zheng, ZH (reprint author), China Meterol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
2012
Source PublicationACTA PHYSICA SINICA
ISSN1000-3290
Volume61Issue:19Pages:543-550
AbstractEnsemble prediction is an effective approach to accounting for uncertainties of initial conditions and model error. By combining the predictability of extended-range, both predictable components and unpredictable random components with different characteristics are treated with different ensemble prediction schemes and strategies. A new predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method (PBEP) is proposed. In this method, for predictable component, the uncertainty of model is taken into account through the use of multiple error correction scheme; while the random component probability distribution is obtained from the climate probability distribution of historical data, for the sake of avoiding the influence of model error. Prediction results show that the ensemble prediction method can improve the forecast skill in all regions of the world, and the extents of improvement are different for waves with different spatial scales compared with the operational dynamical extended-range ensemble prediction system of NCC/CMA, exhibiting its potential application perspective to operational extended-range prediction.
Other Abstract集合预报是考虑初始条件和模式不确定性的有效途径.结合延伸期可预报性特征,对具有不同特性的可预报分量和随机分量采用不同的集合预报方案和策略,发展了一种基于延伸期可预报性的集合预报新方法(PBEP).该方法以延伸期数值预报模式为平台,对可预报分量采用多个模式误差订正方案,从考虑模式不确定性的角度进行集合;而对随机分量则利用历史资料从气候概率的角度给出集合概率分布,避免模式误差对随机分量概率分布的影响.试验结果表明,相比于国家气候中心的业务动力延伸集合预报系统,该集合预报方法对全球各区域环流预报技巧均有提高,对不同空间尺度的波也有不同程度的改进,显示出潜在的业务应用前景.
Keywordextended-range forecast predictability ensemble prediction predictable components 延伸期预报 可预报性 集合预报 可预报分量
Subject AreaPhysics
PublisherCHINESE PHYSICAL SOC
DOI10.7498/aps.61.199203
Publication PlaceBEIJING
Indexed BySCIE ; CSCD
Language中文
First Inst
Funding Project国家自然科学基金项目 ; 国家科技支撑计划
Host of Journal中国物理学会
Project NumberNational Natural Science Foundation of China [41105070, 40930952, 41005041] ; State Key Program of Science and Technology of China [2009BAC51B04] ; Meteorological Special Project of China [GYHY201106016]
WOS IDWOS:000311841100078
CSCD IDCSCD:4661958
Funding OrganizationNSFC ; MOST
SubtypeArticle
Department[Zheng Zhi-Hai;
Feng Guo-Lin] China Meterol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
[Huang Jian-Ping;
Chou Ji-Fan] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Citation statistics
Cited Times:10[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Cited Times:9[CSCD]   [CSCD Record]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/119265
Collection大气科学学院
Corresponding AuthorZheng, ZH (reprint author), China Meterol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zheng, ZH,Feng, GL,Huang, JP,et al. Predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method and numerical experiments[J]. ACTA PHYSICA SINICA,2012,61(19):543-550.
APA Zheng, ZH,Feng, GL,Huang, JP,Chou, JF,&Zheng, ZH .(2012).Predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method and numerical experiments.ACTA PHYSICA SINICA,61(19),543-550.
MLA Zheng, ZH,et al."Predictability-based extended-range ensemble prediction method and numerical experiments".ACTA PHYSICA SINICA 61.19(2012):543-550.
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