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Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction
Wang, QG; Chou, JF(丑纪范); Feng, GL; Wang, QG (reprint author), Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
2014-07
Source PublicationSCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN1674-7313
Volume57Issue:7Pages:1525-1537
AbstractThis paper refers to the CNOP-related algorithms and formulates the practical method and forecast techniques of extracting predictable components in a numerical model for predictable components on extended-range scales. Model variables are divided into predictable components and unpredictable chaotic components from the angle of model prediction error growth. The predictable components are defined as those with a slow error growth at a given range. A targeted numerical model for predictable components is established based on the operational dynamical extended-range forecast (DERE) model of the National Climate Center. At the same time, useful information in historical data are combined to find the fields for predictable components in the numerical model that are similar to those for the predictable components in historical data, reducing the variable dimensions in a similar judgment process and further correcting prediction errors of predictable components. Historical data is used to obtain the expected value and variance of the chaotic components through the ensemble forecast method. The numerical experiment results show that this method can effectively improve the forecast skill of the atmospheric circulation field in the 10-30 days extended-range numerical model and has good prospects for operational applications.
Keywordextended-range forecast predictable components chaotic components analogue correction of errors fast non-adjoint algorithm
Subject AreaGeology
PublisherSCIENCE CHINA PRESS
DOI10.1007/s11430-014-4832-5
Publication PlaceBEIJING
Indexed BySCIE ; EI
Language英语
First Inst
Funding Project国家自然科学基金项目 ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划以及国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)
Host of Journal中国科学院
Project NumberNational Natural Science Foundation of China [40930952, 41105055] ; Global Change Study of Major National Scientific Research Plan of China [2012CB955902] ; Meteorological Special Project of China [GYHY201106016, GYHY201106015]
WOS IDWOS:000338269500009
Funding OrganizationNSFC ; MOST
SubtypeArticle
EI ID20142617877898
Department[Wang QiGuang;
Chou JiFan] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;
[Wang QiGuang;
Chou JiFan] China Meteorol Adm, China Meteorol Adm Training Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
[Feng GuoLin] China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
Citation statistics
Cited Times:3[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/119422
Collection大气科学学院
Corresponding AuthorWang, QG (reprint author), Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, QG,Chou, JF,Feng, GL,et al. Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2014,57(7):1525-1537.
APA Wang, QG,Chou, JF,Feng, GL,&Wang, QG .(2014).Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,57(7),1525-1537.
MLA Wang, QG,et al."Extracting predictable components and forecasting techniques in extended-range numerical weather prediction".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 57.7(2014):1525-1537.
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