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Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia
Gong, ZQ; Zhao, JH; Feng, GL; Chou, JF(丑纪范); Feng, GL (reprint author), Natl Climate Res Ctr CMA, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
Indexed BySCIE ; EI ; CSCD
2015-03
Source PublicationSCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN1674-7313
Volume58Issue:3Pages:404-419
AbstractBased on the 1983 similar to 2011 CMAP data, the precipitation anomaly in East Asia and its nearby sea regions (hereafter called East Asia for short) demonstrates the "+-+" pattern before 1999 and the "-+-" pattern afterwards; this decadal change is contained principally in the corresponding EOF3 component. However, the NCC_CGCM forecast results are quite different, which reveal the "+-+-" pattern before 1999 and the "-+-+" pattern afterwards. Meanwhile, the probability of improving NCC_CGCM's forecast accuracy based on these key SST areas is discussed, and the dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme is constructed for increasing the information of decadal change contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia. The independent sample forecast results indicate that this forecasting scheme can effectively modify the NCC_CGCM's decadal change information contained in the summer precipitation in East Asia (especially in the area of 30 degrees N-55 degrees N). The ACC is 0.25 and ACR is 61% for the forecasting result based on the V SST area, and the mean ACC is 0.03 and ACR is 51% for the seven key areas, which are better than NCC_CGCM's system error correction results (ACC is -0.01 and ACR is 49%). Besides, the modified forecast results also provide the information that the precipitation anomaly in East Asia mainly shows the "+-+" pattern before 1999 and the "-+-" pattern afterwards.
Keywordabrupt decadal change dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme summer precipitation East Asia sea surface temperature
Subject AreaGeology
PublisherSCIENCE CHINA PRESS
Publication PlaceBEIJING
DOI10.1007/s11430-014-4967-4
First Inst
Host of Journal中国科学院
Language英语
Project NumberNational Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955203] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [41205040, 41105055] ; Special Scientific Research Project for Public Interest [GYHY201306021]
Funding Project国家自然科学基金项目 ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划以及国家重大科学研究计划(973计划) ; 公益性行业科研专项
Funding OrganizationNSFC ; MOST
SubtypeArticle
WOS IDWOS:000349767600008
CSCD IDCSCD:5387036
EI ID20150800555933
IRIDCSCD2565
Department[Gong ZhiQiang;
Feng GuoLin] Natl Climate Res Ctr CMA, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
[Zhao JunHu;
Chou JiFan] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Citation statistics
Cited Times:12[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/119470
Collection大气科学学院
Corresponding AuthorFeng, GL (reprint author), Natl Climate Res Ctr CMA, Lab Climate Studies, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Gong, ZQ,Zhao, JH,Feng, GL,et al. Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2015,58(3):404-419.
APA Gong, ZQ,Zhao, JH,Feng, GL,Chou, JF,&Feng, GL .(2015).Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,58(3),404-419.
MLA Gong, ZQ,et al."Dynamic-statistics combined forecast scheme based on the abrupt decadal change component of summer precipitation in East Asia".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 58.3(2015):404-419.
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