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兰州大学机构库  > 数学与统计学院  > 期刊论文
题名: Using a Grey-Markov model optimized by Cuckoo search algorithm to forecast the annual foreign tourist arrivals to China
作者: Sun, X; Sun, WS; Wang, JZ; Zhang, YX; Gao, YN
收录类别: SSCI ; ESI
ESI注释: 2017-07-19;Highly Cited Papers
出版日期: 2016-02
刊名: TOURISM MANAGEMENT
卷号: 52, 页码:369-379
出版者: ELSEVIER
出版地: OXFORD
英文摘要: With the rapid development of the international tourism industry, it has been a challenge to forecast the variability in the international tourism market since the 2008 global financial crisis. In this paper, a novel CMCSGM(1, 1) forecasting model is proposed to address how forecasting precision is affected by the volatility of the tourism market. The Markov-chain grey model is adopted for its emphasis on the small-sample observations and exponential distribution samples. Additionally, the optimal input subset method and the Cuckoo search optimization algorithm are applied to improve the performance of the Markov-chain grey model. The experimental study of the forecasting of the annual foreign tourist arrivals to China indicates that the proposed CMCSGM(1, 1) model is considerably more efficient and accurate than the conventional MCGM(1, 1) models. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
关键词: Forecast ; China ; Tourism demand ; Optimal input subset ; Cuckoo search algorithm
作者部门: [Sun, Xu ; Sun, Wangshu ; Wang, Jianzhou ; Gao, Yining] Dongbei Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat, Dalian 116025, Peoples R China ; [Zhang, Yixin] Lanzhou Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Lanzhou 73000, Peoples R China
通讯作者: Wang, JZ (reprint author), Dongbei Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Stat, Dalian 116025, Peoples R China.
学科分类: Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Social Sciences - Other Topics; Business & Economics
文章类型: Article
所属项目编号: National Social Science Foundation of China [13, ZD171]
所属项目名称: 国家社会科学基金重大项目
项目资助者: NSSFC
语种: 英语
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2015.07.005
ISSN号: 0261-5177
WOS记录号: WOS:000366235100033
IR记录号: WOS:000366235100033
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内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/180774
Appears in Collections:数学与统计学院_期刊论文

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Recommended Citation:
Sun, X,Sun, WS,Wang, JZ,et al. Using a Grey-Markov model optimized by Cuckoo search algorithm to forecast the annual foreign tourist arrivals to China[J]. TOURISM MANAGEMENT,2016,52:369-379.
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