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题名: Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols
作者: Lin, L.; Gettelman, A.; Fu, Q.; Xu, Y.
收录类别: EI
出版日期: 2016-02-03
刊名: Climatic Change
页码: 1-16
出版者: SPRINGER
出版地: DORDRECHT
英文摘要: Aridity, defined as the ratio of precipitation (P) to potential evapotranspiration (PET) over land, is critical to natural ecosystems and agricultural production. Global climate models project global decreases of P/PET (drying) in the 21st century. We examine the uncertainty of aridity projections due to scenarios of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and aerosols with three sets of ensemble simulations from a single climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM1). Ensembles consist of two Radiative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and a scenario with RCP-like GHGs but with aerosol precursor emissions and atmospheric oxidants fixed at the year 2005 level. Under a high GHGs emission scenario (RCP8.5), global land P/PET decreases (drying) by 6.4 ± 0.8 % in 2060–2080 relative to 1985–2005. A GHG mitigation scenario (RCP4.5) would reduce the drying (P/PET decrease) to 3.7 ± 0.6 %. Although future aerosol emissions reduction would increase P, we find that it has little impact on global aridity due to offsetting effects on PET. Regionally, deceasing aerosols can have significant effects and aerosol-induced P/PET changes are due to different factors across different regions. When normalized by global mean temperature response, GHGs decrease global land P/PET by 2.7 ± 0.6 %/°C and surface temperature changes dominate GHG-induced P/PET change. © 2016 The Author(s)
关键词: Greenhouse gases ; Aerosols ; Agriculture ; Atmospheric temperature ; Climate models ; Drying ; Earth (planet) ; Emission control ; Agricultural productions ; Atmospheric oxidants ; Earth system model ; Ensemble simulation ; Global climate model ; Global-mean temperature ; Potential evapotranspiration ; Surface temperature changes
作者部门: (1) College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China ; (2) National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder ; CO, United States ; (3) Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
通讯作者: Lin, L. (lzulinlei@126.com)
学科分类: Meteorology;Atmospheric Properties; Mathematics
文章类型: Article
语种: 英语
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1615-3
ISSN号: 0165-0009
EI记录号: 20160701910598
IR记录号: 20160701910598
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内容类型: 期刊论文
URI标识: http://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/182653
Appears in Collections:大气科学学院_期刊论文

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Recommended Citation:
Lin, L.,Gettelman, A.,Fu, Q.,et al. Simulated differences in 21st century aridity due to different scenarios of greenhouse gases and aerosols[J]. Climatic Change,2016:1-16.
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