兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
增暖背景下基于概率理论与过程性原理极端天气气候事件的检测及其特征研究
Alternative TitleThe Characteristic Research and Detection of Extreme Climate Events according to Probability Theory and Process Principle under the Background of Warming
钱忠华
Thesis Advisor封国林
2012-12-01
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Keyword极端天气气候事件 概率 过程性 检测
Abstract极端天气气候事件是小概率事件,IPCC评估报告从概率角度对极端天气气候事件做了明确的定义,因此从概率角度定义极端天气气候事件具有较好的理论意义。本文利用Box-Cox变换改善数据的正态性的特性,通过变换后数据呈较好的正态性反演推导获得气象要素的偏态概率密度函数,为极端天气气候事件从概率角度定义、检测提供理论依据;根据概率密度函数定义了具有明确物理含义的最概然温度,以最概然温度的变化反映中国各区域背景场温度的变化趋势;根据概率密度函数定义了极端天气气候事件,分别从强度、频次角度研究中国极端温度事件的空间分布及其时间演化规律,为回答在全球增暖背景下极端天气气候事件是否越来越频繁、是否越来越趋于极端化提供事实依据。在检测出的一系列天气极值事件的基础上,根据共相同步化原理从事件发生的过程性来确定极端事件的过程,致力于提出一种行之有效的客观检测过程性极端事件的新方法,并将其应用于2009年的西南干旱事件的观测资料的检测中,为西南干旱事件的研究提供一个新视角。
Other AbstractAbstract Extreme climate events are of small probability and were given definitely definition in AR4 according to probability. So it has rather theoretical significance to define extreme climate events from the point of probability. Because Box-Cox transformation can improve data normality and the data by Box-Cox transformation are normal, the skewed probability function is derived, which provides theory basis to define extreme events based on probability. According to the skewed probability function, most probable temperature (MPT) is defined and it has definite physics meaning and can reflect the changing trends of background temperature in different regions over China. Extreme temperature events are defined in terms of skewed function and the temporal-spatial distribution characteristics and time evolution laws of frequencies and strength of them are found, which provide fact foundations to try to answer the question whether extreme events are becoming more and more frequent and extremity. Basing on a series of detected extremum events, the processes of extreme events can be detected by phase synchronization. A new method to detect process of extreme events objectively is raised and it is applied in drought events from 2009 over Southwest China trying to supply a new angle of view to know the drought events.
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/199624
Collection大气科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
钱忠华. 增暖背景下基于概率理论与过程性原理极端天气气候事件的检测及其特征研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2012.
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