兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
基于标准化降水蒸发指数的中国区域干旱化特征分析
Alternative TitleThe Drought Characteristics in the Regions of China Based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index
庄少伟
Thesis Advisor左洪超
2013-05-28
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword全球变暖 干旱 干旱特征 干旱指数 标准化降水蒸发指数
Abstract本文利用中国气象局160个站1951~2010年月降水和月平均气温资料,检验了最近定义的一种干旱指数——标准化降水蒸发指数SPEI在中国不同等级降水区域的适用性,与标准化降水指数SPI和湿润指数H进行了对比分析。在此基础上构建了各区域1951~2010年12,24及36个月尺度SPEI序列,给出了中国各区域的干旱化特征,结合气温及降水变化,对各区干旱化特征的原因做了简要分析。主要结果如下: (1)在我国年均降水量大于200mm的地区,各种时间尺度的SPEI分析均适用;在干旱区(年均降水量小于200mm),只有12个月以上的大尺度SPEI分析适用性较好;其中12个月尺度的SPEI分析在各区适用性最好。 (2)在干旱区,由于冬季月平均气温常小于等于0℃,潜在蒸发量为0,且降水稀少,导致小于12个月的小尺度累积水分亏缺量序列0值附近概率密度异常偏高,不服从log-logistic概率分布,降低了SPEI在该区小尺度分析中的可适用性。所以,在分析我国干旱区1,3,6个月小尺度干旱时不建议使用SPEI。 (3)与SPI和H指数相比,SPEI在干旱区和湿润区均能充分反映增温引起的干旱程度的变化,并可作为监测指数识别干旱是否发生或结束,能较准确地表征干旱状况;只包含降水信息的单因素指数SPI未能反映出1997年气温跃变以来干旱区干旱程度有所加剧这一变化。
Other AbstractBased on the monthly precipitation and monthly-mean temperature data of 160 stations in China from 1951 to 2010, which is provided by China Meteorological Administration, the applicability of the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) is examined. The results are as the followings: (1) The SPEI at multiple time scales could be used to drought examining in the area which the annual precipitation is greater than 200 mm in China; In the other area, only the SPEI at the time scales which are longer than 12 months could be used to drought examining, especially for the 12-month SPEI. (2) Because of many zero values (no precipitation and evapotranspiration cases) during winter months, it would reduce the confidence of the SPEI values when applying 1-,3-,6-month SPEIs in arid climatic regimes which the annual precipitation is less than 200 mm.
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/199665
Collection大气科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
庄少伟. 基于标准化降水蒸发指数的中国区域干旱化特征分析[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2013.
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