兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
BCC_CSM气候系统模式检验评估及外强迫作用数值模拟研究
Alternative TitleEvaluation of BCC_CSM Climate System Model and Numerical Simulation on Effects of External Forcing
李景鑫
Thesis Advisor魏文寿
2013-06-03
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
KeywordBCC_CSM气候系统模式 检验与评估 气候数值模拟 火山灰气溶胶 气候效应 外强迫 CO2突增4倍试验
Abstract随着计算机技术的飞速发展,气候系统模式也得到了快速发展,已成为研究气候变化机理及其预测的重要工具,倍受重视,并已取得了诸多很有价值的研究成果。但仍有一些基本的或深层次的问题亟待进一步研究解决,例如,一个新开发的气候系统耦合模式,系统全面地检验与评估其模拟能力就是最基本、也是最重要的工作之一,这对于合理利用此模式进行数值模拟试验,研究揭示外强迫对气候变化的影响过程及其机理至关重要;对于认定模式所预测的未来气候变化程度的可信度更是必不可少。基于此,按照所承担的国家科技支撑计划课题“极端天气气候事件数值模拟”任务要求,本文在我国及周边区域内,检验了中国气象局国家气候中心研发的BCC_CSM气候系统模式关于模拟中国及周边地区气候状况的模拟能力,评估了其在大气环流形势场和各气象要素场方面的模拟能力,计算统计了其高度场的平均误差、均方根误差、相对均方根误差以及空间相关系数。其次,评估了该模式对我国极端温度的模拟能力,并依次分析了模式对日平均温度、日最高最低温度、极端温度指数及其长期变化趋势的模拟能力。在此基础上,利用该模式对火山灰气溶胶的气候效应进行了数值模拟试验,初步揭示了其辐射强迫及气候效应。最后,利用包括BCC_CSM模式在内CMIP5计划中的12个模式的模拟试验结果,比较分析了BCC_CSM模式与其它模式的模拟性能,并利用BCC_CSM气候系统模式,开展了长期气候模拟的三类试验(历史试验、控制试验、气候灵敏度试验),模拟研究了其它外强迫作用对气候变化的影响。主要结论如下: 1、经检验,BCC_CSM1.0模式能较好地模拟东亚大气环流形势及相关气象要素场,尤其对南亚高压和西太平洋副热带高压的位置和强度模拟得较准确,并对各个等压面层的温度场、湿度场、垂直运动等气象要素场都有较好的模拟,且低层的模拟效果优于高层。通过定量分析500hPa层高度场的误差发现,模式系统误差偏差不大,受季节影响,春夏秋季主要为正偏差,冬季主要为负偏差;均方根误差在低纬地区误差较小,高纬地区误差略偏大。相对均方根误差分析显示,模式系统误差主要受地形影响所致,除青藏高原以外,其余地区误差均较小。由此说明BCC_CSM1.0模式在东亚大部分地区有较好模拟能力。 检验与评估结果还显示,BCC_CSM1.0模式对中国地区的极端温度模拟效果较好,其中,日平均温度的年际变化、年变化、季节变化的模拟结果与观测值基本一致,只是在青藏高原地区存在异常低值区;最高和最低温度的模拟,在东南沿海、新疆、青藏高原地区模拟值略偏低,其它大部分地区偏差都较小。极端温度指数模拟情况也较好,模拟值和观测值均显示出极端温度指数呈上升趋势,表明此模式对极端温度及其与此相关联的气候事件也有一定的模拟能力。 2、利用检验与评估后的BCC-CSM1.0气候系统耦合模式进行了火山灰气溶胶辐射强迫作用的气候敏感性及其效应的数值模拟研究,结果表明,模式中加入火山灰气溶胶后,各个气象要素场的模拟误差都有所减小,总体模拟效果明显提高,表明加入火山灰气溶胶的模式大气更加逼近实际大气。其中,北半球比南半球的模拟误差减小明显,30°N-...
Other AbstractWith the rapid development of computer technology, there has also been a rapid advance in the climate system model, which has become an important tool for studying the mechanisms and forecast of climate change and has been paid much more attention. So far, there have been many valuable research results. However, there are still some basic or deep-seated problems which are needed to be studied. For example, for a newly developed coupled climate system model, the most basic and critical work is to evaluate its simulation capabilities comprehensively and systematically, which is important for the rational numerical experimentation to study the mechanisms of the external forcing effecting on climate change and the credibility of predicting future climate change. Based on this, according to the mission requirements of the National Science and Technology Support Program project “the numerical simulation of extreme weather and climate events", the ability of the global climate system model BCC_CSM (developed by the National Climate Center) in simulating climatic conditions in China and the surrounding area has been assessed including the atmospheric circulation and meteorological elements. Firstly, the statistics of the height field, average error, the root mean square error, relative root mean square error and spatial correlation coefficient are calculated. Secondly, the capability of the model simulation in simulating the extreme temperatures, the daily average temperature, daily maximum and minimum temperatures, extreme temperature index and its long-term trend has been assessed. Based on this, a numerical experiment of the climate effects of volcanic aerosol has been conducted by using this model, and the radiation forcing and climate changes has been indicated. Finally, the capability of the BCC_CSM model and other models are assessed by comparing the simulation results of 12 models from CMIP5 plan including BCC_CSM model. Moreover, three types of long-term climate test (historical test, controlled trial, climate sensitivity test) have been analyzed and compared, and the effect of the external forcing on climate change has been analyzed. The main conclusions are as follows, 1. Through testing, it is found that BCC_CSM1.0 model has good ability in simulating the atmospheric circulation and meteorological elements in East Asia , especially in simulating the location and intensity of the South Asia High and West Pacific subtropical high, and the simulation...
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Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/199686
Collection大气科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李景鑫. BCC_CSM气候系统模式检验评估及外强迫作用数值模拟研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2013.
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