兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
利用历史资料提取稳定分量改进延伸期预报研究
Alternative TitleThe Research of Extracting Stable Components in Extended-Range Weather Forecast Based on Historical Data
王阔
Thesis Advisor封国林 ; 丑纪范
2015-05-29
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Keyword10-30天延伸期预报 稳定分量 气候态稳定分量 异常型稳定分量 动力统计 历史资料
Abstract10-30天延伸期预报对天气预报的科学研究和工作业务来说都是热点问题。虽然有关该领域的相关研究仍在稳步推进并取得了丰硕成果,但是至今为止10-30天延伸期预报技巧总体上仍然较低,不足以在极端天气气候事件中为我国防灾减灾工作提供有力保障。本文提出一种基于历史资料利用带通滤波和经验正交分解提取10-30天稳定分量的新方法,通过比较实际天气过程与历史大气的相似性进一步将10-30天稳定分量划分为气候态稳定分量和异常型稳定分量,考察了10-30天稳定分量在季节内尺度的变化特征及其与极端天气个例的联系。建立了基于历史资料提取稳定分量改进数值模式延伸期预报方案,对可预报的稳定分量直接使用动力模式预报结果,对不可预报的随机分量则通过历史相似给出统计结果,开展对ISVHE集合预报热带太平洋地区OLR场的改进预报试验。全文主要结论如下:(1)提出10-30天稳定分量的定义及提取方法。(2)提取10-30天稳定分量个例分析。(3)比较稳定分量与实际大气的整体收敛程度。(4)分析稳定分量季节内尺度的持续性。(5)评估POEM2模式对热带季节内振荡的模拟能力。(6)建立基于历史资料提取稳定分量改进动力模式延伸期预报方法。(7)利用历史资料改进预报不准确随机分量来改进模式预报方法。
Other AbstractThe extended-range weather forecast for the coming 10-30 days is a very important topic in meteorological research and business,which relates people’s production and living closely.Although great progress has been achieved in recent days,the forecast skill of extended-range weather forecast for the coming 10-30 days needs further improvement, and it can not provide powerful guarantee for China’s disaster prevention and mitigation work about extreme weather events. How to separate the predictable stable components from actual atmosphere has been an important issue in the research of extended-range weather forecast.In this study,a new method for extracting the stable components of 10-30 days is developed by making use of band-pass filter and Empirical Orthogonal Function based on the historical observation data.Then the stable components are devided into climatic stable components and abnormal stable components by the similarity between weather process and historical atmosphere.The variation characteristics of 10-30 days stable components in intraseasonal time scale and their linkage with extreme weather are investigated.Based on ISVHE multi-model ensemble OLR data,an improved forecasting model for the coming 10-30 days in tropical Pacific is established,the predictable stable components are predicted by dynamical model and the unpredictable random components are predicted by similar statistical method.The major results and conclusions are summarized as follows:(1)The definition and calculation of 10-30 days stable components are proposed.The mathematical definition and physical meaning of 10-30 days stable components are proposed,and the linkage between stable components and intraseasonal oscillation is analysied.The calculation method of stable components including filter and EOF can not only determine their continuity in intraseasonal time scale,but also eliminate small space scale in intraseasonal time scale by principle components analysis.This method simplifies the atmospheric motion.(2)Extracting 10-30 days stable components for case study.The change and distribution features of 10-30 days stable components in extreme weather events are studied,and the relationships between climatic stable components and circulation background,abnormal stable components and circulation anomaly are analysied.The climatological background field represents the large scale circulation pattern background and the abnormal stable components represent the relative anoma...
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/199812
Collection大气科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
王阔. 利用历史资料提取稳定分量改进延伸期预报研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2015.
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