兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
我国北方干旱半干旱区降水多年代际变化及其对温室效应的响应
Alternative TitleThe Multidecadal Variability of Precipitation and Its Response to Greenhouse over Arid and Semi-arid Region of Northern China
从靖
Thesis Advisor马玉霞 ; 赵天保
2016-05-28
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword降水 干旱半干旱区 多年代际变化 太平洋年代际振荡 通用气候模式CCSM4.0 温室效应
Abstract文中基于GPCC_V7与ERA_20C融合的逐月降水资料 (1901-2012),运用EEMD等方法分析我国北方干旱半干旱区降水多年代际变化及与太平洋年代际振荡关系;并基于CCSM4.0模拟过去百年温室效应对该区降水及海气相互作用的影响。结果表明: (1)区域大多数地区降水具有50-60年的多年代际变化,PDO对大多数地区具有明显的调制作用;新疆北部和内蒙古东北部降水与PDO呈现出显著正相关,而河套东西部地区呈现显著负相关。 (2)物理机制表明,PDO暖相位时,径向环流增强使北冰洋水汽南下,遇到低空北上阿拉伯海域暖湿气流时,使新疆中南部降水增多;另一方面,印度洋通过对流加热激发了PJ/EAP遥相关型产生,利于暖湿水汽输送至东北部区域,增大降水概率。 (3)CCSM4.0基本能够模拟出降水分布,B2000-B1850表明室效应增加了区域年降水且最大正响应中心为新疆南部及青海地区。分布主要受夏季影响,而春季可能会放大正中心。综合而言,温室效应使年降水增多33.4mm。 (4)EOF及相关分析表明,区域降水主要呈以中东部为中心同正分布,温室效应使降水与赤道太平洋海温异常西正增强、东负减弱。第二空间模态呈西湿东旱分布,温室效应增强降水与热带印度洋正相关及与以赤道西太平洋为中心负相关,减弱与赤道东太平洋正相关,从而使西湿增强东旱减弱。
Other AbstractBased on the data of both GPCC_V7 and ERA_20C monthly precipitation, mainly using ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and composition analysis method to analyze the multidecadal change of arid and semi-arid region in northern China and the relationship between MDV and Pacific Decade Oscillation (PDO). Secondly, based on the industrialization/present radiative forcing thousand datas obtained from CCSM4.0 model experiment, to assess the impact of human activities to the precipitation and air-sea interaction. The result shows: (1)The precipitation of arid and semi-arid region in northern China has a multidecadal variability with about 50-60 years mean period which may be modulated by PDO. The northern Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia is significant positive correlation, while the east and west to Hetao is significant negative correlation. (2)The possible mechanism shows, the strengthening of meridional circulation make water vapor of Arctic Ocean flow southward on positive PDO phase. As a result, the precipitation of Xinjiang is increased by the converging of northwest cold-wet flow from Arctic Ocean and southwest warm-wet flow from Arabian Sea in southern Xinjiang. On the other hand, the convection heating of equatorial western Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean led to the Pacific-Japan/East Asia-Pacific(PJ/EAP) pattern of teleconnection. It is benefit to transport wet flow from Bohai sea to northern area and increase precipitation on positive PDO phrase. (3)CCSM4.0 model can still simulates the spatial distribution of precipitation. The results is that human activities (B2000-B1850) can cause precipitation increasing especially in the southern Xinjiang and Qinghai. The summer precipitation is important for Xinjiang and Qinghai precipitation increasing most , while the spring may be magnify this precipitation center because of the false precipitation center in this area. (4)Based on the result of CCSM4.0 model data analysis, the main spatial distribution of precipitation is positive distribution with the center in mid-eastern of Inner Mongolia, which positive correlation with East Pacific SSTA and negative correlation with West Pacific SSTA.Besides the positive correlation is enhanced, while the negative correlation is weakened by the greenhouse gas increasing in the past hundred years.The second EOF mode shows that, the distribution is flood in the west and drought in the east. It is can be enhanced by greenhouse gas increasing caused that there is...
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/199954
Collection大气科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
从靖. 我国北方干旱半干旱区降水多年代际变化及其对温室效应的响应[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2016.
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