兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
气候变暖背景下中国农业干旱灾害致灾因子、风险性特征及其影响机制研究
Alternative TitleThe Agricultural Drought Disaster Hazard Factor, Risk Characteristic and Mechanisms in China Under Climate
韩兰英
Thesis Advisor张强
2016-05-31
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Keyword中国 农业干旱灾害 致灾因子 风险性特征 影响机制
Abstract本研究以我国干旱灾害致灾因子、风险性特征及其影响机制为研究切入点,以气象综合干旱指数(MCI)为干旱致灾因子表征指标,研究我国干旱时空分布特征及其区域差异性。基于风险因子耦合模拟和历史干旱灾损概率统计两种风险评估方法,研究中国农业干旱灾害风险性特征。阐述不同时段关键气候物理要素对风险的影响,揭示气候变暖对农业干旱灾害损失的影响,明确中国干旱灾害风险关键影响期。研究成果为提升我国干旱灾害风险评估、防灾减灾能力和风险管理水平提供科学依据,主要结论如下: (1)充分认识了中国干旱时空变化特征、演变规律和区域差异性。 (2)基于风险因子耦合法,构建了综合农业干旱灾害风险评估模型,并在中国西南地区进行案例研究。 (3)系统分析了中国农业干旱灾损率变化特征、南北区域差异及其对气候变暖的响应。 (4)阐明中国七个子区域干旱灾害损失变化特征。 (5)系统分析了干旱对中国主要粮食作物产量的影响。 (6)明确了中国农业干旱灾害风险关键影响期。
Other AbstractIn this paper, based on the comprehensive climate drought index (MCI), expressed the drought spatiotemporal distribution and it regional difference, analyzed the drought disaster hazard factors, drought disaster risk characteristics, and the mechanism of drought disaster. Based on the all-county, south, and north drought disaster loss rate and it response to climate warming, we discussed the effect of climate change on the area of main agriculture and production, building a drought risk assessment model combined with drought disaster risk factors and frequency of loss. According to the grade of different agriculture crops against disaster capability, analyzing the effect of regional and different grade drought on agriculture loss, finding the key period of regional drought disaster risk in national, north, and south region. Comparing the regional agriculture drought disaster hazard factors, critical values, dynamic risk characteristics, and its change rules, revealing the key factors on risk attribution and physical mechanism. The results can provide scientific basis to improve the capability of prevention drought disaster risk and risk management levels. (1).Fully recognized drought hazard factor spatial and temporal change and development rules in the national, north and south region of China. (2).Building the combined risk assessment model based on the agriculture drought disaster risk factor and historical agriculture disaster loss data, and assessed the drought disaster risk in the southwest China. (3).Systematically analyzed the drought loss rate and it characteristics in north and south. (4).Explaining the characteristics of regional drought disaster loss. (5).Systematically analyzed the response of main agriculture crops to drought. (6).Cleared the key effecting period of agriculture disaster loss.
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/199983
Collection大气科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
韩兰英. 气候变暖背景下中国农业干旱灾害致灾因子、风险性特征及其影响机制研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2016.
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