兰州大学机构库 >经济学院
西部地区碳强度差异及敛散性分析
Alternative TitleStudy on Disparity and Convergence of Carbon Intensity in the Western Region
高璐
Thesis Advisor周兴福 ; 高新才
2015-06-08
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword碳排放 泰尔指数 收敛性 影响因素
Abstract西部大开发以来,西部发展迅速。煤炭、石油、天然气等消费量日益剧增。相应的,二氧化碳排放也随之增加。随着国际国内对温室气体排放越来越严格的要求,碳减排成为西部各省不可避免的责任。研究西部省际碳强度的变化趋势,有利于探索适合西部各省碳减排任务,以期能为科学合理的制定符合西部省域特点的碳减政策。 本文首先对碳排放相关研究进行梳理,进而选取2000—2012年西部十一省相关数据运用泰尔指数对西部地区碳强度分布的时空差异及变化趋势进行分析。再利用经济增长理论中δ收敛模型、β收敛模型包括绝对收敛与条件收敛模型和俱乐部收敛模型对西部地区碳强度差异变化趋势进行实证分析。最后以碳强度变化的方差为因变量、碳强度与影响碳强度变化的因素的协方差为自变量构建回归模型分析影响碳强度敛散性因素,找到有利于碳强度收敛的方法。收敛实证结果表明:西部地区不存在显著的δ收敛、β绝对收敛和β条件收敛;西南地区有明显的δ收敛、β条件收敛,但没有显著的β绝对收敛和俱乐部收敛;西北地区δ收敛模型不显著,同时也不存在显著的β绝对收敛、β条件收敛和俱乐部收敛迹象。碳强度差异的影响因素实证结果表明:人均GDP、城市化水平、能源结构和产业结构在不同程度上影响碳强度差异的变动趋势。
Other AbstractSince the western region is developed, the fossil energy consumption such as coal, oil, natural gas has become more and more with economic development rapidly in western region. The carbon emissions caused by the fossil energy has increased subsequently. Along with higher and higher requirement for the emission of greenhouse gases at home and abroad, the carbon emissions reduction is the inevitable responsibility in the western province. Therefore, the responsibility on carbon emissions of the western regions is distinct. It is useful to explore suitable responsibility of carbon emissions’ reduction for studying the variation trend of the western interprovincial carbon intensity in the western provinces, which is to provide the meaningful reference for formulating the rational strategy of carbon emissions’ reduction. Firstly, the paper teases out the related research of carbon emissions. Afterwards, it uses the data of western provinces from 2000 to 2012 to analyze temporal and spatial differences and the change trend of carbon intensity distribution in the western region by adopting the Theil index. Then the empirical analysis on the differences in trend of carbon emissions in the western area is based on the model of δ convergence, an absolute β convergence, a conditional β convergence and the club convergence in the theory of economic growth. Finally, the regression model which is used to analyze the influence factors of the carbon intensity of convergence and divergence is set up with the variance of the carbon intensity change as the dependent variable and the covariance of the carbon intensity and its influence factors as the independent variables for finding a way to the carbon intensity of convergence. The empirical results of the convergence show that: the existence of δ convergence, absolute β convergence and conditional β convergence is not significant in the western areas; δ convergence, conditional β convergence and club convergence exist in the southwest area. Absolute β convergence is not in the southwest area; the existence of δ convergence, absolute β convergence, conditional β convergence and club convergence is not significant in the northwest areas. The empirical results of the influence factors of the carbon intensity differences show that per capital GDP, city level, energy structure and industrial structure have an effect on the change trend of carbon intensity differences in varying degree.
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/216579
Collection经济学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
高璐. 西部地区碳强度差异及敛散性分析[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2015.
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