兰州大学机构库 >生命科学学院
民勤地区气候干湿变化与农业转型案例研究
Alternative TitleCase Study on Climatic Drought-wet Change and Agriculture Transformation in the Minqin Region
司文选
Thesis Advisor李凤民
2018-04-02
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Keyword民勤地区 干湿变化 日光温室 行为选择 政府决策
Abstract

干旱化是危及人类生存环境的严重问题。随着全球气候变暖,全球及区域性水分平衡、干湿状况及其时空特征都发生了变化。农业是国民经济的基础产业,也是受气候变化影响最大、对气候变化反应最为敏感的产业, 特别是在干旱地区,农业的发展受气候干湿状况的影响极大。本文利用民勤、武威气象站常规观测资料,对我国河西走廊干旱半干旱区近57年的气候干湿变化进行了分析研究,给出了河西地区干湿变化的特征及规律,并结合社会科学研究理论对民勤地区农户在环境变化和产业结构调整过程中的行为状态进行分析,研究河西地区的干湿变化对农业生产的影响,从一个全新的角度探讨人类社会活动对气候变化的响应,以期为政府及农户面对气候干旱问题应采取的应对措施提供依据。

研究结果表明:近57年来,民勤地区小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨各类型的降水出现的年平均次数分别为:36.9、2.1、0.4、0,占年降水总次数的比例分别为:93.75%、5.25%、0.98%、0%。从气候变化趋势分析,民勤地区各类型降水均呈现增加趋势,但不同类型降水变化趋势的幅度存在差异,小雨、中雨、大雨的年际变化幅度增加值分别为0.50次/10a、0.07次/10a和0.07次/10a。 近57年来, 民勤地区年降水量、年潜在蒸发量、年地表湿润指数均呈现出增加趋势。民勤地区年降水量的平均值为115.0mm,气候倾向率为4.60mm/10a;年潜在蒸发量的平均值为878.0mm,气候倾向率为4.50mm/10a,年地表湿润指数的平均值为0.1,气候倾向率为0.01/10a。民勤地区年地表湿润指数的主要变化特征为:50年代中期到70年代中期,年地表湿润指数呈现缓慢上升趋势,70年代中期到80年代中期呈现缓慢下降趋势,之后又呈现出缓慢上升的趋势。分析发现民勤地区建设发展的变化特征与其地表湿润指数变化特征存在着一致性。民勤地区年地表湿润指数突变,与当地建国初的初步开发、20世纪七八十年代的大力发展以及20世纪末的保护发展是相一致的。

民勤地区日光温室建设情况与当地气候变化特征是相适应的。日光温室建设的实际变化情况从侧面反映了人类社会活动对气候变化的响应。民勤地区日光温室建设与自1987年以来西北地区的气候从暖干向暖湿转型的特征相适应,也与80年代中后期民勤地区年地表湿润指数的缓慢上升趋势相符合,2003年开始年潜在蒸发量峰值的回落,也与当时实行的“关井压田”、大力推广日光温室等技术措施相适应,相对于1991-2001年,2002-2012年期间月地表湿润指数整体上呈现增大的趋势,日光温室十年的建设和当地环境的改善相吻合。社会调查结果显示:2010年民勤地区在推行产业结构调整过程中,日光温室并没有得到广大农户的认同,政策的执行存在一定困难。调查发现,民勤地区政府对日光温室政策的宣传不够,农户在政府政策持久性的认识上持消极态度。499户的调查中,比较了解或者非常了解日光温室政策的农户仅占28.5%,认为日光温室政策会持续开展下去的农户仅占22.6%,不会长久执行或者很快结束的农户约占39.7%,保持观望态度的人约占37.8%。调查中还发现只有14.9%的农户主动选择种植了日光温室。对日光温室存在的问题,民勤地区农户最关注和最希望政府帮助解决的前三个问题分别是“销路问题”占66.4%、“大棚搭建费用”占21.5%、“提供及时的技术指导”占12.1%。日光温室专项调研和统计数据还显示:民勤地区日光温室种植的规模和面积逐年扩大,日光温室棚均经济效益显著提高,日光温室种植结构不断优化。2014年底民勤地区日光温室种植面积从2010年底的1568.4公顷扩大至2786.76公顷;日光温室棚均经济收入从2009-2010年生产期的1.0万元上升至2013-2014年生产期的2.1万元;种植结构中,周年生产、冬春茬两茬、秋冬茬两茬或者多茬生产则由上一年度的21.9%上升至79.2%,上升了57.3%。民勤地区农业产业结构调整政策正在被越来越多的农户所接受。

Other Abstract

Drought is a serious problem that threatens human’s living environment. As the climate warms up, the global and regional water balance and temporal and special characteristics of dry and wet conditions have changed a lot. Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and it is sensitive and most affected by climatic change. In addition, the development of agriculture is the most affected by dry-wet condition. Based on the observation data in Minqin and Weiwu meteorological stations, 57-year dry and wet climate change have been researched and analyzed, and by using social science theory to analyze the environmental change and the behavioral condition of the process of industrial restructuring in Minqin. At the meantime, characteristics and laws of dry and wet changes were given and the influence of agricultural industry on wet-dry change was studied in Hexi area. The human social activity responding to climatic change was discussed in a new view to provide basis measures for government and farmers in facing with climatic change.The results show that the average annual precipitation frequency of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain in Minqin were approximately 36.9, 2.1, 0.4 and 0, and the proportion of annual precipitation percent of the annual average were 93.75%, 5.25%, 0.98% and 0% in the last 57 years. From the analysis of the trend of climate change, all types of precipitation in Minqin increase, although the increases of different types of precipitation are different. The annual increases of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain were 0.5 /10a, 0.07 /10a and 0.07/10a.

In the last 57 years, the annual precipitation, the annual potential evaporation and the annual surface humid index all increased. The annual precipitation in Minqin was 115.0mm and its climate tendency rate was 4.60mm/10a; the annual potential evaporation was 878.0mm,and its climate tendency rate was 4.5mm/10a;the annual surface humid index was 0.1, and  its climate tendency rate was0.01/10a.The main characteristics of the annual surface humid index in Minqin were that a slow rising from the mid of 1950s to the mid of 1970s, a slow falling from the mid of 1970s to the mid of 1980s, and then it rose slowly again.

Actually, the construction of solar greenhouse is consistent to the surface humid index in Minqin. The mutations to the annual surface humid index in Minqin coincides with the local preliminary development in the early days of the republic foundation, rapid development in the 1970s or 1980s and preserving and developing in the end of the 20th century.The construction speed of solar greenhouse in Minqin is adaptable with and the local climate change characters humid index. The actual change of the solar greenhouse construction reflects the response of human social activities to climatic change.  The construction of solar greenhouse and the characteristics of the transition from dry and warm to wet and warm climate type are suitable and also corresponding to the trend of slow increase of annual surface humidity index. The peak value of potential evaporation fell from 2003 also adaptive with 'Shut-in and press fields' and promoted the technology of solar greenhouse. Compared with the 1991-2001, the monthly surface humid index shows the tendency of increase on the whole from 2002 to 2012. It concludes solar greenhouse constructed of ten years has a role on environmental improvement.A social survey reveals that solar greenhouse was not accepted by the vast majority of peasants during the adjustment of industrial structure in Minqin in 2010, there were some difficulties in the implementation of the policy. The survey also shows that the lack of the solar greenhouse policy publicity by the Minqin government resulting to peasants had a negative attitude towards the persistence of the policy. In the survey of 499 households, only 28.5% of them knew or had a better understanding of the policy, only 22.6% of them thought the policy of solar greenhouse would continue. 39.7% of them thought the policy of solar greenhouse would not last a long time or end soon. About 14.9% of them stayed on the watch. Only 14.9% of them chose solar house. For the problems of solar greenhouse, the first three problems that farmers were most concerned about and hoped the government help solve are "sales problem" accounting for 66.4%, "cost of greenhouse construction " accounting for 21.5%, and "providing timely technical guidance" accounting for 12.1%.The special survey and statistical data of solar greenhouse also reveals that the scale and area of sunlight greenhouse planting in Minqin area is increasing year by year, the economic benefits of solar greenhouse greatly improved, and the planting structure of solar greenhouse is constantly optimized. The area of sunlight greenhouse planting expanded from 1568.4 hectares at the end of 2010 to 2786.76 hectares at the end of 2014. The economic income of sunlight greenhouse in an annual production cycle increased from 10 thousand yuan in 2009- 2010 to 21 thousand yuan in 2013- 2014. In the planting structure, the annual production, double crop in winter and spring, double crop in autumn and winter, or multi crop planting increased from 21.9% in the previous year to 79.2%, with an increase of 57.3%. The policy of adjustment of agricultural industrial structure in Minqin area is being accepted by more and more peasants.

URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/220796
Collection生命科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
司文选. 民勤地区气候干湿变化与农业转型案例研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.
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