|Alternative Title||Case Study on Climatic Drought-wet Change and Agriculture Transformation in the Minqin Region|
|Place of Conferral||兰州|
|Keyword||民勤地区 干湿变化 日光温室 行为选择 政府决策|
研究结果表明：近57年来，民勤地区小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨各类型的降水出现的年平均次数分别为：36.9、2.1、0.4、0，占年降水总次数的比例分别为：93.75%、5.25%、0.98%、0%。从气候变化趋势分析，民勤地区各类型降水均呈现增加趋势，但不同类型降水变化趋势的幅度存在差异，小雨、中雨、大雨的年际变化幅度增加值分别为0.50次/10a、0.07次/10a和0.07次/10a。 近57年来, 民勤地区年降水量、年潜在蒸发量、年地表湿润指数均呈现出增加趋势。民勤地区年降水量的平均值为115.0mm，气候倾向率为4.60mm/10a；年潜在蒸发量的平均值为878.0mm，气候倾向率为4.50mm/10a，年地表湿润指数的平均值为0.1，气候倾向率为0.01/10a。民勤地区年地表湿润指数的主要变化特征为：50年代中期到70年代中期，年地表湿润指数呈现缓慢上升趋势，70年代中期到80年代中期呈现缓慢下降趋势，之后又呈现出缓慢上升的趋势。分析发现民勤地区建设发展的变化特征与其地表湿润指数变化特征存在着一致性。民勤地区年地表湿润指数突变，与当地建国初的初步开发、20世纪七八十年代的大力发展以及20世纪末的保护发展是相一致的。
Drought is a serious problem that threatens human’s living environment. As the climate warms up, the global and regional water balance and temporal and special characteristics of dry and wet conditions have changed a lot. Agriculture is the foundation of the national economy, and it is sensitive and most affected by climatic change. In addition, the development of agriculture is the most affected by dry-wet condition. Based on the observation data in Minqin and Weiwu meteorological stations, 57-year dry and wet climate change have been researched and analyzed, and by using social science theory to analyze the environmental change and the behavioral condition of the process of industrial restructuring in Minqin. At the meantime, characteristics and laws of dry and wet changes were given and the influence of agricultural industry on wet-dry change was studied in Hexi area. The human social activity responding to climatic change was discussed in a new view to provide basis measures for government and farmers in facing with climatic change.The results show that the average annual precipitation frequency of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain in Minqin were approximately 36.9, 2.1, 0.4 and 0, and the proportion of annual precipitation percent of the annual average were 93.75%, 5.25%, 0.98% and 0% in the last 57 years. From the analysis of the trend of climate change, all types of precipitation in Minqin increase, although the increases of different types of precipitation are different. The annual increases of light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain were 0.5 /10a, 0.07 /10a and 0.07/10a.
In the last 57 years, the annual precipitation, the annual potential evaporation and the annual surface humid index all increased. The annual precipitation in Minqin was 115.0mm and its climate tendency rate was 4.60mm/10a; the annual potential evaporation was 878.0mm,and its climate tendency rate was 4.5mm/10a;the annual surface humid index was 0.1, and its climate tendency rate was0.01/10a.The main characteristics of the annual surface humid index in Minqin were that a slow rising from the mid of 1950s to the mid of 1970s, a slow falling from the mid of 1970s to the mid of 1980s, and then it rose slowly again.
Actually, the construction of solar greenhouse is consistent to the surface humid index in Minqin. The mutations to the annual surface humid index in Minqin coincides with the local preliminary development in the early days of the republic foundation, rapid development in the 1970s or 1980s and preserving and developing in the end of the 20th century.The construction speed of solar greenhouse in Minqin is adaptable with and the local climate change characters humid index. The actual change of the solar greenhouse construction reflects the response of human social activities to climatic change. The construction of solar greenhouse and the characteristics of the transition from dry and warm to wet and warm climate type are suitable and also corresponding to the trend of slow increase of annual surface humidity index. The peak value of potential evaporation fell from 2003 also adaptive with 'Shut-in and press fields' and promoted the technology of solar greenhouse. Compared with the 1991-2001, the monthly surface humid index shows the tendency of increase on the whole from 2002 to 2012. It concludes solar greenhouse constructed of ten years has a role on environmental improvement.A social survey reveals that solar greenhouse was not accepted by the vast majority of peasants during the adjustment of industrial structure in Minqin in 2010, there were some difficulties in the implementation of the policy. The survey also shows that the lack of the solar greenhouse policy publicity by the Minqin government resulting to peasants had a negative attitude towards the persistence of the policy. In the survey of 499 households, only 28.5% of them knew or had a better understanding of the policy, only 22.6% of them thought the policy of solar greenhouse would continue. 39.7% of them thought the policy of solar greenhouse would not last a long time or end soon. About 14.9% of them stayed on the watch. Only 14.9% of them chose solar house. For the problems of solar greenhouse, the first three problems that farmers were most concerned about and hoped the government help solve are "sales problem" accounting for 66.4%, "cost of greenhouse construction " accounting for 21.5%, and "providing timely technical guidance" accounting for 12.1%.The special survey and statistical data of solar greenhouse also reveals that the scale and area of sunlight greenhouse planting in Minqin area is increasing year by year, the economic benefits of solar greenhouse greatly improved, and the planting structure of solar greenhouse is constantly optimized. The area of sunlight greenhouse planting expanded from 1568.4 hectares at the end of 2010 to 2786.76 hectares at the end of 2014. The economic income of sunlight greenhouse in an annual production cycle increased from 10 thousand yuan in 2009- 2010 to 21 thousand yuan in 2013- 2014. In the planting structure, the annual production, double crop in winter and spring, double crop in autumn and winter, or multi crop planting increased from 21.9% in the previous year to 79.2%, with an increase of 57.3%. The policy of adjustment of agricultural industrial structure in Minqin area is being accepted by more and more peasants.
|司文选. 民勤地区气候干湿变化与农业转型案例研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.|
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