|Alternative Title||Layout Analysis on the Sustainable Development of the Silk Road Economic Belt Based on the Ecological Footprint Model|
|Keyword||丝绸之路经济带 生态足迹 生态承载力 可持续发展战略|
This study is based on the characteristics of the global integrity and transnational mobility of ecological environment problems, the Silk Road Economic Zone as a whole, selecting 50 countries within the region as the research object of sustainable development, using horizontal and vertical comparison in time series and space position to make three-in-one comprehensive analysis :Making global positioning analysis are based on some changes of ecological footprint, biocapacity and ecological supply and demand in the overall Silk Road Economic Belt situation by the relatively comparing with the global ecological footprint and biocapacity; Making all-round internal analysis by ecological footprint, biocapacity and structural components of 50 countries in the Silk Road Economic Belt more than 20 years; Making balanced layout analysis based on ecological environment, human society and economic development of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt by using multiple parameters; Finally, making reasonable forecasting analysis for the relevant ecological indicators of the ecological footprint model in the Silk Road Economic Zone to provide a reference for sustainable development in the future.The results show that: (1) In the past 20 years, the per ecological footprint, average ecosystem carrying capacity and per capita ecological deficit in the 50 countries of the Silk Road Economic Belt were significantly higher than those in global scale, and the ecological deficit was increasing from 1991 to 2012, synchronized with the global. But its ecological supply capacity to its own natural resources and ecological products was obviously superior to that of the whole world. Since 2008, the gap of ecological deficit between the Silk Road Economic Belt and the global has gradually narrowed; (2) According to the changes in the geographical distribution from South to North along with the Asia- Pacific region (except Mongolia)- the Middle East and Central Asia-other European countries-E’s, per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological capacity of Silk Road Economic Belt show the obvious distribution characteristics of ladder shaped increased, and the main characteristics of the per capita ecological budget is the difference between south and north, the northern part of the Silk Road Economic Zone is basically in the ecological surplus, while the southern parts is the state of ecological deficit; (3) According to the changes in the geographical distribution from South to North along with the Asia- Pacific region - the Middle East and Central Asia-other European countries-E’s, human development index, ecological efficiency and sustainable development ability of ecological economic system show the overall trend of gradual improvement; (4) From the perspective of the six types of natural resources in the ecological footprint account, we select the per capita ecological profit and loss and the total ecological profit and loss as two ecological indicators. With a view to discovering the capacity and complementary potential of different resource utilization types carried on different land, the potential flow path map with complementary resources within the domain is constructed; (5) The prediction results show that under the condition of keeping the current development pattern unchanged, it will remain in a state where the ecological deficit continues to expand in the Silk Road Economic Zone, but the growth rate of the ecological deficit economy will slow down and tend to be equal to the global average.
Specific layout recommendations: (1) Compared with increasing import of extraterritorial ecological resources in order to reduce the per capita ecological footprint. For most countries in the region, obtaining local biocapacity (or financial means of obtaining biocapacity from other places) and improving the efficiency of resource utilization in the Silk Road Economic Belt to enhance the biocapacity are more important than accessing to determinants and effective measures to eliminate ecological deficits; (2) In the short term, the Asian-European Land Bridge, which connects Eurasian non - three continents is the carrier, and the Corridor of Economic Cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia in the North; the Economic Cooperation Corridor between China, Central Asia and Central Asia and the Economic Cooperation Corridor in the southern part of China South Central Peninsula drive the rational operation of different regional resources. It is basically possible to maximize the flow of long-range configuration and reasonable utilization of different natural resources in the region to maintain the overall development of resource production in the Silk Road Economic Zone; (3) In the medium and long term, the slow and sustained expansion of the ecological deficit along the Silk Road Economic Belt, indicating that the ecosystem cannot safely support the sustainable state of the region. Therefore, according to situation of ecological surplus or deficit, the use of natural resources and the development status of social economy as well as sustainable potential and complementary potential the domain, the proposal of "upper-middle-bottom" level construction and layout is put forward; (4) As a useful supplement, aiming at the special resource short board within the region can also be targeted to absorb the corresponding complementary national resources and to endeavour to develop them as the next member development countries, such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Indonesia and other neighboring Asian countries; the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola and South Africa and other African countries; the United States and Canada and other North American countries, to promote the healthy coordination and green sustainable development of economy and environment in the Silk Road Economic Zone as soon as possible.
This study will provide a useful reference for the future construction and sustainable development of ecological civilization along the Silk Road economic belt, as well as the coordinated development of human society and ecological economic environment and the common prosperity in the Silk Road Economic Belt.
|Place of Conferral||兰州|
|马月. 基于生态足迹模型的丝绸之路经济带可持续发展布局分析[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.|
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