兰州大学机构库 >生命科学学院
基于生态足迹模型的丝绸之路经济带可持续发展布局分析
Alternative TitleLayout Analysis on the Sustainable Development of the Silk Road Economic Belt Based on the Ecological Footprint Model
马月
Thesis Advisor张大伟
Degree Name硕士
2018-06-08
Keyword丝绸之路经济带 生态足迹 生态承载力 可持续发展战略
Abstract

本研究基于生态环境问题的全球整体性和跨国流动迁移性特征,将丝绸之路经济带作为一个整体,选取欧亚非大陆架内的50个国家作为可持续发展研究对象,采用时间序列与空间位置进行横向与纵向比较的三位一体全方位分析:通过与全球生态足迹账户模型相关生态指标的相对比较,将丝绸之路经济带整体的生态足迹和生态承载力变化状况与生态供需情况进行了全球性定位分析;通过丝绸之路经济带域内5020多年结构组分的多个指标参数对丝绸之路经济带沿线国家生态环境、人类社会与经济发展进行了全方位内部分析;利用生态足迹账户不同资源利用类型的人均生态盈亏与生态盈亏总量进行了平衡性布局分析;最后对未来丝绸之路经济带生态足迹模型的相关生态指标进行了合理性预测分析,以期对当下及未来的丝绸之路经济带域内国家的绿色生态与可持续性发展提供有价值性的参考。研究结果表明:(1)过去22年,丝绸之路经济带50国的人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力与人均生态赤字均明显高于全球尺度,且两者的生态亏损呈现出同步递增态势,但其对自身自然资源与生态产品的生态供给能力要明显优于全球,且自2008年以后,丝绸之路经济带与全球的生态赤字差距开始逐步缩小;(2)按照亚太地区(蒙古国除外)—中东和中亚地区—欧洲其他国家—欧盟由南到北的地理方位变化,丝绸之路经济带人均生态足迹、人均生态承载力与人均生态盈亏度均表现出比较明显的阶梯状逐渐增加的分布特点;(3)按照亚太地区—中东和中亚地区—欧洲其他国家—欧盟由南向北地理分布区的变化,人类发展指数、生态效率与生态经济系统的可持续发展能力总体呈现逐渐提高的变化趋势;(4)从生态足迹账户六大自然资源类型出发,选取人均生态足迹盈亏量与生态足迹盈亏总量作为两大生态计算指标,通过获悉与挖掘国土之上所承载的不同资源利用类型的盈亏大小与互补潜能,构建了域内不同资源互补的潜在流向路径图;(5预测结果显示,在保持现有发展模式不变的情况之下,丝绸之路经济带未来生态赤字仍将处于持续扩大的状态,但增长幅度呈现减缓趋势且趋于与全球平均持平的发展水平。

具体布局建议:(1)相比较增加域外生态资源的进口量以减少人均生态足迹而言,对于域内大多数国家,当地获得生物承载力(或者从其他地方获取生物承载力的财政手段)以及提高丝绸之路经济带域内资源利用效率以加强生态承载力是比全球平均水平更重要的资源获取决定因素和消除生态赤字更加有效的措施;(2)中短期内,在丝绸之路经济带域内以连通欧亚非三大洲的亚欧大陆桥为承载,以中蒙俄北部地区经济合作走廊、中国—中亚—西亚中部地区经济合作走廊与中国—中南半岛南部地区经济合作走廊带动不同地域资源的合理运转,基本可以实现域内不同自然资源最大化远距离的流动配置与合理利用,减少丝绸之路经济带生态赤字增加幅度,以求一定程度上改善当前丝绸之路经济带地区资源生产与消费状态;(3)中长期看,丝绸之路经济带缓速持续扩大的生态赤字,说明生态系统并不能安全地支撑域内的可持续状态,由此根据域内生态盈余或亏损状况以及各国自然资源利用和经济社会发展现状、可持续潜力及互补潜能,提出“上—中—下”层级建设方案与布局建议;(4)作为有益的补充,针对域内特殊的资源短板,亦可针对性地吸收相应互补性的国家资源,并努力将其作为下一步成员发展国,如泰国、老挝、越南与印度尼西亚等亚洲周边国家;刚果民主共和国、安哥拉与中非等非洲国家;美国与加拿大等北美洲国家,促进丝绸之路经济带尽早实现经济、环境良性协调的绿色可持续发展之路。

本研究将为丝绸之路经济带生态文明的未来建设和可持续发展,以及丝绸之路经济带人类社会与生态经济环境协作发展、共同繁荣提供有益借鉴。

Other Abstract

This study is based on the characteristics of the global integrity and transnational mobility of ecological environment problems, the Silk Road Economic Zone as a whole, selecting 50 countries within the region as the research object of sustainable development, using horizontal and vertical comparison in time series and space position to make three-in-one comprehensive analysis :Making global positioning analysis are based on some changes of ecological footprint, biocapacity and ecological supply and demand in the overall Silk Road Economic Belt situation by the relatively comparing with the global ecological footprint and biocapacity; Making all-round internal analysis by ecological footprint, biocapacity and structural components of 50 countries in the Silk Road Economic Belt more than 20 years; Making balanced layout analysis based on ecological environment, human society and economic development of countries along the Silk Road Economic Belt by using multiple parameters; Finally, making reasonable forecasting analysis for the relevant ecological indicators of the ecological footprint model in the Silk Road Economic Zone to provide a reference for sustainable development in the future.The results show that: (1) In the past 20 years, the per ecological footprint, average ecosystem carrying capacity and per capita ecological deficit in the 50 countries of the Silk Road Economic Belt were significantly higher than those in global scale, and the ecological deficit was increasing from 1991 to 2012, synchronized with the global. But its ecological supply capacity to its own natural resources and ecological products was obviously superior to that of the whole world. Since 2008, the gap of ecological deficit between the Silk Road Economic Belt and the global has gradually narrowed; (2) According to the changes in the geographical distribution from South to North along with the Asia- Pacific region (except Mongolia)- the Middle East and Central Asia-other European countries-E’s, per capita ecological footprint and per capita ecological capacity of Silk Road Economic Belt show the obvious distribution characteristics of ladder shaped increased, and the main characteristics of the per capita ecological budget is the difference between south and north, the northern part of the Silk Road Economic Zone is basically in the ecological surplus, while the southern parts is the state of ecological deficit; (3) According to the changes in the geographical distribution from South to North along with the Asia- Pacific region - the Middle East and Central Asia-other European countries-E’s, human development index, ecological efficiency and sustainable development ability of ecological economic system show the overall trend of gradual improvement; (4) From the perspective of the six types of natural resources in the ecological footprint account, we select the per capita ecological profit and loss and the total ecological profit and loss as two ecological indicators. With a view to discovering the capacity and complementary potential of different resource utilization types carried on different land, the potential flow path map with complementary resources within the domain is constructed; (5) The prediction results show that under the condition of keeping the current development pattern unchanged, it will remain in a state where the ecological deficit continues to expand in the Silk Road Economic Zone, but the growth rate of the ecological deficit economy will slow down and tend to be equal to the global average.

   Specific layout recommendations: (1) Compared with increasing  import of extraterritorial ecological resources in order to reduce the per capita ecological footprint. For most countries in the region, obtaining local biocapacity (or financial means of obtaining biocapacity from other places) and improving the efficiency of resource utilization in the Silk Road Economic Belt to enhance the biocapacity are more important than accessing to determinants and effective measures to eliminate ecological deficits; (2) In the short term, the Asian-European Land Bridge, which connects Eurasian non - three continents is the carrier, and the Corridor of Economic Cooperation between China, Mongolia and Russia in the North; the Economic Cooperation Corridor between China,  Central Asia and Central Asia and the Economic Cooperation Corridor in the southern part of China South Central Peninsula drive the rational operation of different regional resources. It is basically possible to maximize the flow of long-range configuration and reasonable utilization of different natural resources in the region to maintain the overall development of resource production in the Silk Road Economic Zone; (3) In the medium and long term, the slow and sustained expansion of the ecological deficit along the Silk Road Economic Belt, indicating that the ecosystem cannot safely support the sustainable state of the region. Therefore, according to situation of ecological surplus or deficit, the use of natural resources and the development status of social economy as well as sustainable potential and complementary potential the domain, the proposal of "upper-middle-bottom" level construction and layout is put forward; (4)  As a useful supplement, aiming at the special resource short board within the region can also be targeted to absorb the corresponding complementary national resources and to endeavour to develop them as the next member development countries, such as Thailand, Laos, Vietnam,  Indonesia and other neighboring Asian countries; the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Angola and South Africa and other African countries; the United States and Canada and other North American countries, to promote the healthy coordination and green sustainable development of economy and environment in the Silk Road Economic Zone as soon as possible.  

This study will provide a useful reference for the future construction and sustainable development of ecological civilization along the Silk Road economic belt, as well as the coordinated development of human society and ecological economic environment and the common prosperity in the Silk Road Economic Belt.

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Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/221044
Collection生命科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
马月. 基于生态足迹模型的丝绸之路经济带可持续发展布局分析[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.
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