兰州大学机构库 >资源环境学院
中国居民生活碳排放影响因素分析与峰值预测
Alternative TitleThe Determinants and Peak Prediction of Household CO2 Emissions in China
刘莉娜
Thesis Advisor曲建升
2017-10-20
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Keyword居民生活碳排放 评估 收敛 影响因素 峰值 中国
Abstract

在适应和减缓气候变化大背景下,党的“十七大”、“十八大”、 “十九大”大力推进中国生态文明建设。中国政府提出通过发展低碳经济、构建低碳社会、采取低碳模式等方案来落实中国节能减排政策,进而构建中国特色社会主义生态文明。本研究通过对国内外碳排放评估方法、收敛趋势、影响因素以及峰值预测等研究进行梳理和总结,提出中国居民生活碳排放的研究需求。基于IPCC参考方法、投入产出方法和消费者生活方式方法对中国整体、城乡、地区三个层面不同消费行为(“衣”、“食”、“住”、“行”、“服务”)的居民生活碳排放进行评估和分析,并探讨其收敛趋势和影响机制,在此基础上,构建不同情景对中国未来居民生活碳排放趋势和发展路径进行预估。通过对居民生活碳排放达峰时间和达峰数值进行模拟,可为中国发展低碳经济、转变消费模式、构建中国特色社会主义生态文明之路提供科学基础和政策参考。

主要研究结论如下:(1)从居民生活碳排放评估结果看:中国整体、城乡、东部、中部和西部地区居民生活碳排放总量和人均居民生活碳排放量均呈现逐渐上升趋势;城乡之间、不同区域之间居民生活碳排放总量和人均居民生活碳排放量均呈现显著差异;在居民生活消费行为方面,中国居民生活碳排放呈现由以“衣”、“食”消费行为结构为主向以“住”、“行”、“服务”消费行为结构为主转变的趋势。(2)从居民生活碳排放收敛分析看:中国整体、城乡、东部、中部、西部地区居民生活碳排放总量和人均居民生活碳排放量以及不同居民生活消费行为碳排放量均呈现β绝对收敛;中国整体、城镇、农村及东部地区居民生活碳排放总量变化呈现β条件收敛,只有东部城镇地区和农村整体人均居民生活碳排放变化呈现β条件收敛;不同居民消费行为“衣”、“食”、“住”、“行”、“服务”居民生活碳排放总量变化均呈现β条件收敛趋同。(3)从居民生活碳排放影响机制看:人口规模和消费倾向对中国整体、城镇、东部、中部和西部地区的居民生活碳排放总量具有较大正向影响效应;同时,消费倾向对中国整体、城镇、农村、东部、中部和西部地区人均居民生活碳排放量的正向影响效应最大;在不同消费行为居民生活碳排放总量方面,人口规模对“食”、“住”、“行”和“服务”消费行为的居民生活碳排放总量正向影响效应最大。(4)从居民生活碳排放峰值研究看:到2050年,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量和人均居民生活碳排放量在红色情景和橙色情景下均难实现达峰;在绿色情景下,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量达峰时间分别在2045年左右;在蓝色情景下,中国整体、城镇、农村居民生活碳排放总量达峰时间分别在2040年左右。

通过对中国居民生活碳排放评估结果、收敛趋势、影响机制以及情景预测进行分析,可以为中国政府于2009年(哥本哈根气候变化大会)和2015年(巴黎气候变化大会)分别承诺的2020年40%~45%减排目标以及2030年左右的达峰目标提供数据支撑和理论依据。考虑现有应对和减缓气候变化政策及行动的基础上,制定居民生活部门专门性的减排政策和举措,提高人口素质,重视居民生活绿色理念的绿色情景和蓝色情景下,中国居民生活碳排放在2050年之前能够实现达峰。研究结果可以从居民生活消费角度,在推进和改善居民生活水平和生活质量的基础上,通过调整排放结构、优化消费模式、提高人口质量为实施低碳减排行动提供理论参考,这对全球应对和减缓气候变化具有重大意义。

Other Abstract

Under the background of responding and mitigating climate change, the 17th, 18th and 19th CPC National Congress made a great effort to promote the ecological civilization construction. Based on low carbon economic, low carbon society and low carbon consumption pattern, China could achieve low carbon reduction for building a socialist ecological civilization construction with Chinese characteristics. This work gave the research requirements of household CO2 emissions in China through understanding and summarizing the domestic and international research status including the assessment methods, the convergence trends, the determinants and the peak predictions of CO2 emissions. First, this work calculated carbon emissions from household sector’s scale during 1997~2014 period based on IPCC’s Reference Approach, Input-output Analysis and Consumer Lifestyle Approach. Then, this work analyzed the convergence trends and determinants of household CO2 emissions based on β convergence and panel data models. Last, this work explored the peak value of household CO2 emissions and per capita household CO2 emissions in urban, rural and the whole China according to Kaya identity and Scenario Analysis. Based on the results of the variations, the convergence, the determinants and the peak value of household CO2 emissions, we provided scientific evidences and put forward effective suggestions for low carbon economic, low carbon consumption and carbon emission reduction measures and policies.

The research conclusions of this work were as follows:
(1) From the perspective of assessments: both the total of household CO2 emissions and per capita household CO2 emissions increased from 1997 to 2014 in China, urban, rural, eastern, central and western regions. On the other hand, there were obvious regional differences in household CO2 emissions and per capita household CO2 emissions both between urban and rural China and between eastern, central and western regions. Based on different household consumption behavior, the resources of household CO2 emissions in China were derived from “food” and “cloth” to "living", “transportation” and “service”.(2) From the perspective of convergence: both the total household CO2 emissions, per capita household CO2 emissions and household CO2 emissions from different consuming behavior had β absolute convergence in China, urban, rural, eastern, central and western regions. On the other hand, β relative convergence occurred in China, urban, rural and eastern regions’ household CO2 emissions and rural and eastern urban per capita household CO2 emissions. Besides, there were β relative convergence trend in household CO2 emissions from all different consuming behavior in China.(3) From the perspective of different influencing factors: the population size and the consumption tendency had the most positive effect on the total household CO2 emissions in China, urban, rural, eastern, central and western regions. Consumption tendency had the most positive effect on per capita household CO2 emissions in China, urban, rural, eastern, central and western regions. From the angle of different household consuming behavior, population size had the most positive effect on “food”, “living”, “transportation” and “service” household CO2 emissions.(4) From the perspective of the peak prediction: household CO2 emissions and per capita household CO2 emissions would not achieve the peak value before 2050 based on “Red Scenario” and “Orange Scenario” in China, urban and rural areas. By considering the current response and mitigation policy to adapt climate change, special policies and mitigation measures needed to be made on the household consumer sector. The peak value of household CO2 emissions would be achieved based on “Green Scenario” and “Blue Scenario” in China.
Based on Green Scenario, peak value time of household CO2 emissions in China, urban and rural would be achieved in 2045, 2045 and 2041, respectively; the peak value would be 64.76 hundred million t CO2, 48.76 hundred million t CO2 and 16.11 hundred million t CO2, respectively. Peak value time of per capita household CO2 emissions in China, urban and rural would be achieved in 2046, 2044 and 2047, respectively; the peak value will be 4.50 t CO2/person, 4.63 t CO2/person and 4.15 t CO2/person, respectively.

Based on Blue Scenario, peak value time of household CO2 emissions in China, urban and rural would be achieved in 2042, 2042 and 2040, respectively; the peak value will be 59.91 hundred million t CO2, 44.73 hundred million t CO2 and 15.25 hundred million t CO2, respectively. Peak value time of per capita household CO2 emissions in China, urban and rural would be achieved in 2042, 2041 and 2044, respectively; the peak value would be 4.17 t CO2/person, 4.42 t CO2/person and 3.56 t CO2/person, respectively.
On the basis of analyzing the variation tendency, the convergence tendency, the influencing factors and the peak value of household CO2 emissions, it could provide scientific evidence and theoretical basis for carbon emission reduction targets (in 2009, the Chinese government promised to reduce 40%~45% carbon emissions per GDP in year 2020 based on year 2005 at Copenhagen Climate Change Conference, and in 2015, the Chinese government promised to achieve its peak value of carbon emissions around 2030 at Paris Climate Change Conference). In the future, the government, the policy makers and the consumers needed to do their best for achieving low carbon society through adjusting the carbon emission structure, optimizing the consumption structure and improving the quality of population under the advanced and improved living standard and life quality. From what we analyzed in this work, the scientific evidences and effective suggestions were provided for low carbon economic, for low carbon consumption and for the socialist ecological civilization construction.

URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/240711
Collection资源环境学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘莉娜. 中国居民生活碳排放影响因素分析与峰值预测[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2017.
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