兰州大学机构库 >资源环境学院
我国西部地区城市气候变化适应能力评价研究
Alternative TitleResearch on the Assessment of Urban Climate Change Adaptation Capability in Western China
刘霞飞
Thesis Advisor曲建升
2018-05-29
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword气候变化 适应能力 城市 PSR框架 综合评价法 指标体系
Abstract

气候变化导致一系列极端气候事件发生,适应气候变化以及由此引发的风险是国内外研究的焦点。我国西部地区属于自然气候系统敏感区,相对于东中部城市,城市主动适应能力处于落后阶段。自西部大开发以来,西部城市人口规模迅速增长,城区建设发展能力得以提升,而人口密度已成为大城市的突出问题,为应对气候变化风险加大了难度。
本研究以西部地区适应型试点城市和个别省会城市作为主要研究对象,以“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)框架作为指标体系参考,并选取了16个指标,以层次分析法和专家打分法为各指标权重赋值,以逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS)处理数据并建立评价模型。适应能力综合指数由压力层指数、状态层指数和响应层指数构成,根据适应能力指数结果,划分为三个等级,即I级低水平、II级中等水平和III级高水平,并得出以下结论:
(1)西部地区城市气候变化适应能力整体为II级中等水平。(2) 西部地区城市化进程相对稳定,城市状态层指数基本分布在中等水平。(3)压力层指数相对状态层指数的变化具有时间上的差异,响应层指数变化具有滞后性。(4)相对于西北地区,西南地区城市所面临的气候变化压力更具有不稳定性,而响应能力较好。(5)西部地区城市适应能力水平主要分为三种类型,分别为:1)初阶型:包括广元市、商洛市、庆阳市、克拉玛依市、西宁市和银川市,其适应能力水平的变化特点为:综合指数基数低,发展速度快,已具备适应意识,而人力、物力和财力的投入相对落后;2)中阶型:包括乌鲁木齐市、咸阳市和白银市,其适应能力水平的变化特征为:综合指数基数中等,发展速度缓慢;3)高阶型:包括昆明市和六盘水市,其适应能力水平的变化特征为:综合指数基数中等,发展速度快,已具有主动适应意识。(6)城市规模与适应能力水平不完全重合。
基于研究结果,对我国现行的适应气候变化相关政策现状提出如下建议:(1)基于城市压力层指数,将城市化发展战略与气候变化适应政策进一步结合。(2)基于城市发展状态层指数,重点解决落后省份的短板问题。(3)基于城市响应能力指数,加大社会经济系统的研究投入,补充科学理论基础。(4)基于区域差异现状,增加风险预测研究的投入,充分考虑极端气候事件的强度与常态化的自然灾害,避免科技和基础设施资源分配不均匀。

Other Abstract

Climate change has led to a series of extreme climate events. Climate change adaptation and the related risks were the research focus among the international scientific community and governments in the world. Comparing with the urban climate change adaptive capacity in China’s eastern and central areas, it was relatively low in Western China owing to its eco-environment vulnerability and sensibility of natural system. Since the Great Development of the western region, the urban population has grown rapidly and the urban infrastructure construction ability has enhanced in Western China. However, population density has become a prominent issue in large cities, which increased more difficult to address the climate change.
This study chose the adaptive pilot cities and individual provincial capital cities in Western China as the main research object. 16 indicators were selected to built the Evaluation Index System, which was refered by the “Press-State-Response” (PSR) framework. Evaluation model was built by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the expert scoring method as well as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). Adaptation Capability Index (ACI) included the pressure layer (P-ACI), the status layer (S-ACI) and the response layer (R-ACI). According to results of the ACI, it was divided into three levelys, namely, Level I, Level II and Level. The urban climate change adaptability in Western China concluded as follow:(1) The urban climate change adaptation capability was generally Level II in Western China.(2) The process of urbanization was relatively stable in Western China. The urban status index was basically distributed at the medium level.(3) Compared with the status index, the pressure index had a temporal difference, while, the response index had a hysteresis.(4) Compared with the climate change pressures faced by cities in Northwest China, it was more unstable in Southwest China. However, the response capability was better in Southwest China.(5) There were three stages of urban climate change adaptation capability in Western China. ○1 The primary stage included Guangyuan, Shangluo, Qingyang, Karamay, Xining and Yinchuan. The characteristics of the adaptability consisted of low comprehensive basic index, rapid development, adaptative awareness,but lack of the investment in human, material and financial resources. ○2 The middle stage included Urumqi, Xianyang and Baiyin. The characteristics of the adaptability consisted of medium comprehensive basic index and a slow pace of development. ○3 The advanced stage included Kunming and Liupanshui. The characteristics of the adaptability consisted of medium comprehensive basic index, rapid development and the sence of active adaptation.(6) There was not discrepant between the city scale and the level of adaptation capability.Based on the research results, the following recommendations were made on the current status of the related policies of climate change adaptation and mitigation in China:(1) Based on the the results of P-ACI, the urbanization development strategy and the climate change adaptation policies will be further integrated.(2) Based on the results of S-ACI, it will focus on solving the shortcomings of backward provinces.
(3) Based on the results of R-ACI, the research investment in socio-economic system will be increased, meanwhile, the scientific theoretical basis will need to be promoted.(4) Based on the results of the situation of regional differences, it was found that the increasing investment in risk prediction research, fully considering the intensity of extreme climate events and natural disasters could avoid the uneven distribution of the technology and infrastructure resources.

URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/240728
Collection资源环境学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘霞飞. 我国西部地区城市气候变化适应能力评价研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.
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