兰州大学机构库 >管理学院
广州市房地产限购政策效果评估研究
Alternative TitleStudy on the Effect Evaluation of Guangzhou Real Estate Purchase Restriction Policy
张小龙
Thesis Advisor李少惠
2019-05-17
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline公共管理
Keyword房地产市场 限购政策 效果评估 博弈论 向量自回归模型
Abstract近年来,我国房地产行业的蓬勃发展,人们的居住水平和居住质量也有了显著的提高,房地产业也成为国民经济的重要产业。然而,伴随着房地产经济的发展,房价一路攀升和房地产过热等问题也渐渐凸显出来,而且由于房地产市场与人们的居住生活息息相关,居高不下的房价已经影响到人们的居住需求和生活质量。为坚决遏制房地产价格的快速上涨和保障房地产平稳健康发展,我国自2010年开始从国家层面上发布房地产宏观调控政策,要求房价过高城市实施房地产限购政策。在此背景下,广州市政府至今已经多次发布房地产限购政策,距今最近的是2017年3月份连续发布两次房地产限购政策,但是这些限购政策的实施是否取得了预期成效,有必要对其进行有效的、系统的、科学的分析与评估,并为今后完善调控政策提供对策和建议。本文首先梳理了购房者心理预期理论、博弈论以及政策评估的相关理论,分析了房地产市场的内涵以及运行规律,介绍广州市限购政策的出台背景和相关内容,并分别对广州市的房地产运行的现状数据进行了初步的分析;再运用博弈论对房地产市场中的中央政府、地方政府、房地产开发商和购房者等多元利益主体及其行为表现进行分析的基础上,运用计量经济学理论结合广州市房地产市场运行数据,建立了向量自回归模型,评估限购政策对房地产市场的影响,并对如何进一步完善房地产市场限购政策提出了对策和建议。
Other AbstractIn recent years, China's real estate industry is booming, people's living level and living quality has also been significantly improved, the real estate industry has become an important industry of the national economy. However, along with the development of the real estate economy, the housing price has been climbing all the way and the real estate overheating and other problems have gradually emerged. Moreover, because the real estate market is closely related to people's living life, the high housing price has affected people's living demand and quality of life. In order to resolutely curb the rapid rise of real estate prices and ensure the stable and healthy development of real estate, China has issued macro-control policies on real estate from the national level since 2010, requiring cities with excessively high housing prices to implement real estate purchase restriction policies. Under this background, the GuangZhou municipal government has issued several real estate restrictions, the most recent was released in March 2017 consecutive two real estate restrictions, but whether the implementation of these restrictions has obtained expected results, it is necessary to carry on the effective, systematic and scientific analysis and evaluation, and that provides some countermeasures and suggestions for the future perfect regulation policy.This paper first sorts out the theory of buyer's psychological expectation, game theory and relevant theories of policy evaluation, analyzes the connotation and operation rules of the real estate market, introduces the background and relevant content of Guangzhou 's purchase restriction policy, and makes a preliminary analysis of the current situation data of Guangzhou 's real estate operation. To use game theory to the central government, local government in the real estate market, real estate developers and buyers of multiple interest subjects and their behavior based on the analysis, using the econometric theory according to the operation data of Guangzhou real estate market, vector autoregressive model and evaluate the effects of restrictions on the real estate market, and on how to further improve the real estate market restrictions put forward the countermeasure and suggestion.
Pages77
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/340052
Collection管理学院
Affiliation管理学院
First Author AffilicationSchool of Management
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
张小龙. 广州市房地产限购政策效果评估研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2019.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Altmetrics Score
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[张小龙]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[张小龙]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[张小龙]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
No comment.
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.