兰州大学机构库 >经济学院
生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚的经济效应研究 ——以长三角城市群为例
Alternative TitleEconomic effects of Synergistic Agglomeration of Producer Services and Manufacturing -TakingYangtze River Delta as an Example
刘宏霞
Thesis Advisor汪慧玲
2019-09-01
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline产业经济学
Keyword协同集聚 经济效应 空间溢出 门槛效应 长三角城市群
Abstract随着我国经济由工业经济向服务经济过渡,生产性服务业发展迅速、集聚特征日益明显,而且生产性服务业集聚的地区往往制造业也相对发达。从现实经验来看,现代服务业与制造业的“双轮驱动”发展模式是发达地区或国家产业发展与转型的典型路径。在此背景下,中国各级政府纷纷颁布相关政策,鼓励积极发展生产性服务业,促使产业结构向制造业与生产性服务业协同发展转化。长三角地区是我国经济发展的重要引擎之一,拥有制造业集聚优势且生产性服务业集聚趋势明显,最早形成了产业协同集聚现象,呈现出独特的区域特征。与此同时,长三角内部地区经济发展不平衡,既有经济实力雄厚的上海、南京等城市,也有经济相对落后的安徽各城市。在供给侧结构性改革和区域一体化背景下,有必要结合长三角地区的实际情况,研究生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚的经济效应。产业协同集聚作为产业集聚的高级阶段,具有产业集聚的外部效应,生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚的经济效应体现在多个方面。首先,从经济发展层面来看,经济增长与产业结构变动构成了地区经济发展的两个方面,经济增长体现着地区经济发展“量”的扩张,反映了总体规模的变化;产业结构变动体现着地区经济发展“质”的演化,反映了生产组织经济技术联系的变化,也是影响产出和效益的重要因素。因而,产业协同集聚最基本的经济效应表现为经济增长效应和产业结构升级效应。同时,产业结构变动与经济增长均体现着地区经济发展的不平衡,而地区经济发展的不平衡是导致地区收入差距的重要原因之一。空间集聚理论指出产业集聚的外部性对地区收入产生影响,那么产业协同集聚在影响产业结构升级和经济增长的同时,也为缓解地区收入差距提供了新思路。因此,本文结合理论分析和实证检验分别考察产业协同集聚的经济增长效应、产业结构升级效应和地区收入差距。
本文首先梳理了产业协同集聚的相关理论基础,为产业协同集聚影响经济增长、产业结构升级及地区收入差距的内在作用机理分析提供理论依据;其次,对长三角城市群2004-2016年制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚水平进行测度分析,为后续产业协同集聚经济效应实证分析打下基础;第三,实证分析方面,以空间计量模型和面板门槛回归模型为主要研究方法,分别研究了制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚的经济增长效应、产业结构升级效应以及对地区收入差距的影响。本文的主要研究结论如下:第一,从产业协同集聚指数变动趋势来看,长三角城市群制造业与生产性服务业协同集聚水平有下降趋势。中心城市生产性服务业集聚、周边城市制造业集聚的特征日趋明显。从产业协同集聚的空间格局来看,长三角城市群产业协同集聚高点逐渐由东部向西部转移。产业协同集聚存在明显的空间正相关性,即高值集聚和低值集聚的特征,合肥、宣城、马鞍山等西部城市逐渐呈现高值集聚的特征,扬州、镇江、泰州、常州等中部城市呈现出低值集聚的特征;上海则处于高低集聚区。第二,产业协同集聚的经济增长效应。
1. 长三角城市群产业协同集聚对经济增长的影响存在空间效应。产业协同集聚总体对经济增长产生负向抑制作用,对本地经济增长的负向作用显著,而对其他城市经济增长的负向作用不显著。2.以城市规模、外商投资占比、就业密度作为门槛变量研究得出,长三角城市群产业协同集聚对经济增长的影响存在非线性门槛效应。当城市规模不断提高时,产业协同集聚对经济增长的影响作用由负转为正;而适度的外商投资占比与就业密度有利于发挥产业协同集聚对经济增长的正向促进作用。第三,产业协同集聚的产业结构升级效应。1.长三角城市群产业协同集聚对产业结构升级的影响存在空间效应。产业协同集聚对长三角城市群产业结构升级的直接效应显著为正,间接效应显著为负,说明城市间产业集聚存在竞争性,相邻城市产业协同集聚会抑制产业优化升级。2.以产业区位熵、城市化水平、政府预算占比、外商投资占比作为门槛变量研究得出,长三角城市群产业协同集聚对产业结构升级的影响存在非线性门槛效应。随着产业区位熵、城市化水平以及政府预算占比的提高,协同集聚对产业结构升级的影响作用由负转为正,且正向促进作用显著;适度的外商投资占比有利于发挥产业协同集聚对产业结构升级的正向促进作用。第四,产业协同集聚对地区收入差距的影响。1.长三角城市群产业协同集聚对地区收入差距的影响存在空间效应。协同集聚对长三角城市群地区收入差距的直接效应和间接效应均显著为负,在直接效应和间接效应的共同作用下,产业协同集聚利于缩小地区收入差距。从分行业协同集聚来看,交通运输、仓储和邮政业、信息传输、计算机服务和软件业、科学研究、技术服务和地质勘查业与制造业的协同集聚对地区收入差距的直接效应和间接效应均显著为负,但是影响程度存在一定的差异。租赁和商业服务业与制造业的协同集聚对地区收入差距的直接效应和间接效应均显著为正。2.以城市规模、城市化水平及就业密度作为门槛变量研究得出,长三角城市群产业协同集聚对地区收入差距的影响存在非线性门槛效应。随着城市规模的扩大、城市化水平及就业密度的提高,产业协同集聚对地区收入差距的影响作用由缩小转为扩大,且扩大趋势显著。
基于上述研究结论,本文认为长三角城市群必须合理推进“双轮”驱动战略,转变经济发展方式,缓解产业协同集聚的拥挤效应,转化产业协同集聚对经济增长的消极效应。同时,积极推进长三角区域一体化,疏导产业协同集聚的溢出传导路径,增强中心城市的协调带动作用,加快产业升级、缩小地区收入差距,充分发挥产业协同集聚的积极效应。
Other AbstractWith the transition of China's economy from industrial economy to service economy, producer services have developed rapidly and become more and more obvious. Moreover, manufacturing industry is often relatively developed in the areas where producer services gather. From the perspective of practical experience, the "two-wheel drive" development mode of modern service industry and manufacturing industry is a typical path of industrial development and transformation in developed regions or countries. Under this background, Chinese governments have issued relevant policies to encourage active development of producer services and promote the transformation of industrial structure to synergistic development of manufacturing and producer services. The Yangtze River delta is one of the important engines of China's economic development, which has the advantages of manufacturing industry agglomeration and the trend of producer service industry agglomeration is obvious, which forms the unique industrial agglomeration phenomenon and presents the unique regional characteristics. At the same time, the internal economic development of the Yangtze River delta is unbalanced, including economically developed cities such as Shanghai, Nanjing and other cities, as well as economically backward cities such as cities of Anhui. Under the background of supply-side structural reform, regional integration, it is necessary to research the economic effects of industry synergistic agglomeration of the Yangtze River delta. As an advanced stage of industrial agglomeration, industry synergistic agglomeration embodies the characteristics of technological and economic correlation between industries, and exerts the external effects of industrial agglomeration. Firstly, from the perspective of economic development, economic growth and industrial structure change are two aspects that constitute regional economic development. Economic growth reflects the expansion of the "quantity" of regional economic development and the change of the overall scale.The change of industrial structure reflects the evolution of the "quality" of regional economic development, reflects the change of the economic and technological relations between production organizations, which is also an important factor affecting output and benefits.Therefore, the most basic economic effects of industry synergistic agglomeration are industrial upgrading effect and economic growth effect. At the same time, the change of industrial structure and economic growth reflect the imbalance of regional economy, which causes regional income gap.The theory of spatial agglomeration points out that the externality of industrial agglomeration will have an impact on regional income, so industrial synergistic agglomeration not only affects industrial upgrading and economic growth, but also provides a new direction for alleviating regional income gap.     Based on this, this paper explores the economic effects of synergistic agglomeration of manufacturing and producer services from three aspects: industrial upgrading, economic growth and regional income gap.
This paper firstly sorts out the relevant theoretical basis of industrial synergistic agglomeration, laying a foundation for the analysis of the internal mechanism of industrial synergistic agglomeration acting on economic growth, industrial upgrading and regional income gap. Secondly, it measures and analyzes the industry synergistic agglomeration level in urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River delta from 2004 to 2016, laying a foundation for the empirical analysis of the economic effects of industrial collaborative agglomeration. Thirdly, taking the spatial econometric model and panel threshold regression model as the main research methods, the paper studies the economic growth effect, industrial upgrading effect and the impact on regional income gap of the industrial synergistic agglomeration. The main research conclusions are as follows: First, from the perspective of the change trend of industrial synergistic agglomeration index, the industrial agglomeration degree of manufacturing and producer services in urban agglomeration of the Yangtze River delta has a downward trend. The characteristics of producer services agglomeration in central cities and manufacturing agglomeration in surrounding cities are becoming more and more obvious. From the perspective of spatial pattern of industrial synergetic agglomeration, the high points of industrial synergetic agglomeration of urban agglomeration in the Yangtze River delta gradually shift from the east to the west. There is an obvious spatial positive correlation between industrial synergetic agglomeration, namely, the characteristics of high-value agglomeration and low-value agglomeration. Hefei, Xuancheng, Ma 'anshan and other western cities gradually show the characteristics of high-value agglomeration, while Yangzhou, Zhenjiang, Taizhou, Changzhou and other central cities show the characteristics of low-value agglomeration. Shanghai is in a high and low agglomeration area. Second, industrial synergy agglomeration effects the economic growth. 1. There is a spatial effect on the influence of industrial synergy agglomeration on economic growth of urban agglomeration. Industrial synergy agglomeration has a significant negative effect on local economic growth, while it has no significant negative effect on other cities. Overall, industrial synergy agglomeration has a negative inhibitory effect on economic growth. 2. Taking urban population, foreign investment proportion and employment density as threshold variables, it is found that there is threshold effect on the influence of industrial synergy agglomeration on economic growth. With the urban population growing, the influence of industrial synergy agglomeration changes from negative to positive; moderate proportion of foreign investment and employment density are beneficial to exert the positive effect of industrial cooperative agglomeration on economic growth. Third, industrial upgrading effect of industrial synergetic agglomeration. 1. There is a spatial effect on industrial upgrading of urban agglomeration in Yangtze River delta. The direct and indirect effects of industrial synergetic agglomeration on industrial upgrading are significantly positive and negative, indicating that inter-city industrial agglomeration is competitive, and industrial synergetic agglomeration in neighboring cities will inhibit industrial optimization and upgrading. 2. Taking industrial location entropy, urbanization level, government budget proportion and foreign investment proportion as threshold variables, it is found that there is threshold effect on the influence of industrial synergetic agglomeration on industrial upgrading. With the increase of industrial location entropy, urbanization level and government budget proportion, the influence of industrial synergy agglomeration changes from negative to positive; moderate proportion of foreign investment is beneficial to exert the positive effect of industrial synergy agglomeration on industrial upgrading. Fourth, the influence of industrial agglomeration on regional income gap. 1. There is a spatial effect on the influence of industrial synergetic agglomeration on regional income gap. The direct and indirect effects of synergetic agglomeration on income gap are significantly negative. Under the combined effects of direct and indirect effects, industrial synergetic agglomeration is conducive to narrowing regional income gap. From the perspective of sub-industry synergetic agglomeration, the direct and indirect effects of the synergetic agglomeration of transportation, warehousing and postal service, information transmission, computer service and software industry, scientific research, technical service, geological survey and manufacturing industry are significantly negative, while there are some differences in the degree of influence. The direct and indirect effects of synergetic agglomeration of business services and manufacturing are significantly positive. 2. Taking urban population, urbanization level, employment density as threshold variables, it is found that there is threshold effect on the influence of industrial collaborative agglomeration on regional income gap. With the expansion of city scale, urbanization level and employment density, the effect of industrial synergetic agglomeration turns from narrowing to widening, and the expansion trend is significant.
Based on the above research conclusions, this paper believes that it must reasonably promote the "two-wheel" driving strategy, transform the economic development mode, alleviate the crowding effect of industrial synergetic agglomeration, and transform the negative effect on economic growth in Yangtze river delta. At the same time, it must actively promote the Yangtze river delta regional integration, dredge spillover transmission path of industrial synergetic agglomeration, enhance the coordinating and driving role of central cities, accelerate industrial upgrading, narrow regional income gap, and give full play to the positive effect of industrial synergetic agglomeration.
Pages165
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/341056
Collection经济学院
Affiliation经济学院
First Author AffilicationSchool of Economics
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
刘宏霞. 生产性服务业与制造业协同集聚的经济效应研究 ——以长三角城市群为例[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2019.
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