兰州大学机构库 >经济学院
国家沙化土地封禁保护政策可持续性研究—以河西走廊为例
Alternative TitleThe Study of the Sustainability of National Desertified Land Sealed Protection Policy: A Case Study of the Hexi Corridor
周夏伟
Thesis Advisor韦惠兰
2018-12-07
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline区域经济学
Keyword沙化土地封禁保护 可持续性 生态成效 环境价值 激励相容 认同度 封禁补偿 河西走廊
Abstract干旱区土地的沙化和荒漠化问题是人类社会面临的严重生态退化问题之一。全世界约1/4的土地受到荒漠化的威胁,100多个国家超过10亿人口的生计问题受到土地荒漠化的影响,并且荒漠化以6万km2/a的速率扩张。在我国,沙漠、戈壁和沙漠化土地占国土总面积的45.13%,全国18个省市自治区、528个县存在不同程度的沙漠化土地,沙漠化治理是我国生态建设布局中一以贯之的重点内容。为了防治土地沙漠化,治理业已成形的沙化土地,2013年,中央政府出台了国家沙化土地封禁保护政策并试点实施,对沙漠周边人为破坏严重、沙化扩展加剧、生态区位重要、应当治理而当前又不具备治理条件的沙化土地划定为若干个沙化土地封禁保护区,采取在保护区四至边界设置围栏和生态移民等措施,禁牧、禁垦、禁伐、禁樵、禁止狩猎,保护荒漠植被,促进荒漠植被的自然恢复,达到遏制沙化扩展、维护生态安全的目的。试点实施阶段暂定国家沙化土地封禁区封禁期限为7年,截止2017年底,第一批试点县和第二批试点县已进入了封禁期的“末期阶段”,此时,对国家沙化土地封禁保护政策的总体绩效展开深入评价,在理论层面探讨沙化土地封禁保护政策的可持续性,对于我国沙化土地治理实践具有重要的借鉴意义。本文以甘肃省河西走廊沙化土地封禁保护政策实施县域为样本区,基于样本区实地微观调查数据,从沙化土地封禁保护政策本身的可持续性和实施的可持续性2个层面进行了定量的分析和评价,并进而从沙化土地封禁保护政策可持续性的完善角度出发估算了沙化封禁区实施封禁补偿的科学标准。主要结论如下:关于沙化土地封禁保护政策本身的可持续性,本研究从政策的生态绩效和经济绩效2个视角定量评价了政策本身的可持续性:第一, 以归一化植被指数(NDVI)、土地覆被变化以及土壤侵蚀强度综合计算得出的生态安全评价指数表征沙化封禁区生态治理成效,运用GIS技术计算出样本区封禁前与封禁后的生态安全指数并纵向对比,通过指数变化趋势评价沙化土地封禁保护政策的生态绩效。研究表明,实施封禁管护措施4年以来,沙化封禁区生态安全评价分值相比封禁前平均下降了17.68%(生态安全评价分值介于1~36之间,分值愈小,表明生态安全状况愈好),生态安全等级总体上向好变化,沙化封禁区封禁保护生态成效显著,沙化土地封禁保护政策取得了良好的生态绩效。第二,以条件价值评估法(CVM)为研究方法,调查了样本县域城市家庭和项目实施区农户对沙化土地封禁保护区环境改善效益的支付意愿(WTP),在微观调查数据的基础上估算出了沙化土地封禁保护区的经济价值和政策的收益—成本效率。研究表明,在样本群体中,96%的农户和98.68%的城市家庭对沙化土地封禁保护区的环境改善效益具有较强的消费偏好和支付意愿,愿意为了持续享受沙化土地封禁保护的环境改善效益而进行生态保护捐款。样本农户维护沙化封禁区环境改善效益的支付意愿为162.81元/年/户,样本区城市家庭维护沙化封禁区环境改善效益的支付意愿为180.07元/年/户,沙化土地封禁保护每年为研究区域产生的总环境价值高达8588.57万元。基于样本区沙化土地封禁保护的环境价值评估结果,沙化土地封禁保护政策的收益—成本比为1.43 1,沙化土地封禁保护政策具有优良的投资收益率(经济绩效)。基于上述分析,沙化土地封禁保护政策取得了良好的生态效益,以及优良的经济绩效,继续维护(或保持)沙化土地封禁保护政策是未来可取的政策选择,因而政策本身是可持续的。关于沙化土地封禁保护政策实施的可持续性,本文从政策的具体实施者和利益攸关者—地方政府执行政策时的激励相容差异性,以及从政策的具体配合者—封禁区农户对沙化土地治理政策的认同度2个视角进行了定量的分析和研究:第一,以委托—代理关系中不同工作成本以及契约结构下代理人的“激励相容性”差异为研究视角,以在实际调研中发现的影响沙化土地封禁保护政策可持续实施的2个全局性问题为研究切入点,分析了地方政府代表中央政府具体执行沙化土地封禁保护政策时的激励相容差异性。研究表明,沙化土地封禁保护政策可持续实施具有地域差异性。在封禁保护政策执行机会成本高的地区,地方政府执行政策的激励程度弱,政策实施的可持续性差,而在封禁保护政策执行机会成本小的地区,地方政府执行政策的激励程度强,政策实施的可持续性好。在极端情况下,当封禁保护政策实施机会成本极高时,地方政府执行封禁保护政策的激励相容性为0,即地方政府不会执行沙化土地封禁保护区建设项目。政策本身的可持续性影响着政策实施的可持续性,沙化土地封禁保护政策的实施目前仍为试点阶段,这将对政策的可持续实施产生不利影响。当中央政府通过正式制度及实施细则的颁布、足额及时的财政拨款等行为做出推行沙化土地封禁保护政策的可信承诺时,地方政府具有明确的政策预期,沙化土地封禁保护政策实施的可持续性好,反之则差。第二,基于样本区农户调查数据,应用 法和二元 回归模型评估了研究区域农户对沙化土地治理政策的认同度,并分析了显著影响认同度高低的农户人口统计特征和社会经济特征变量,研究显示,总样本中对沙化土地治理具备高认同度的农户家庭占比高达90%,表明项目实施区域绝大部分农户家庭高度认同和支持沙化封禁区建设和沙化土地封禁保护政策,从而在行为上也会高度配合沙化土地封禁保护的各项政策规定,并进而对沙化土地封禁保护政策的可持续实施奠定良好的微观基础。影响农户沙化土地治理认同度高低的显著性因素为农户的年龄、教育程度以及农户家庭是否遭受过土地沙化带来的损失,同时,农户沙化土地治理认同度在县域分布上也呈现显著差异性。具体来说,年龄较长者认同度更高,教育程度更高者认同度也更高,农户如果遭受过土地沙化损失则对沙化土地治理的认同度会更高。关于沙化土地封禁保护政策可持续性的进一步完善,本文以沙化封禁区建设对封禁区周边部分农户生计造成了机会成本的损失这一客观实际为切入点,从沙化封禁区引入封禁补偿机制的必要性证明和科学合理的封禁补偿标准测算2个层次进行了定量分析:第一,通过“地方政府—封禁区农户”为局中人的博弈模型分析表明,如果在沙化封禁区引入封禁补偿政策,给予生计受损农户合理的封禁补偿资金,受损农户的理性选择将是遵守封禁政策规定,不会发生在沙化封禁区偷牧、偷采、偷伐等违规行为,因而在沙化封禁区引入封禁补偿机制是必要的,在沙化封禁区引入封禁补偿机制将极大的保障政策的可持续实施。第二,进一步运用最小数据方法测算表明,如果按照现行的退耕还林补偿标准3600元·hm-2(240元/亩)给予封禁区农户封禁补偿,则补偿标准过低,激励效应有限,而如果将封禁补偿标准定为19770元·hm-2(1318元/亩),则会激励沙化封禁区周边所有农户自愿将其土地利用方式从耕种转化为封禁,此时减少的农业灌溉用水需求总量巨大,将为生态用水腾出巨大空间,生态保护效应巨大,沙化土地封禁保护的政策绩效将有质的提升。基于以上分析,虽然沙化土地封禁保护政策在项目区具有坚实的群众基础,由此认为实施的可持续性具有良好的微观基础,但是由于沙化土地封禁保护的实施造成了地方政府发展经济的机会成本和农户生计的机会成本,并且项目实施区域目前并没有实施封禁补偿政策,因此,在机会成本小的地区,沙化土地封禁保护政策实施的可持续性良好,在机会成本大的地区,沙化土地封禁保护政策实施的可持续性堪忧。国家沙化土地封禁保护政策的特殊性在于它追求的是纯粹的生态治理目标,沙化封禁区项目的实施不会与所在地居民发生直接的经济利益交换关系,也不会直接增加项目区居民的经济收益,而是通过改善项目区生态环境间接增加居民们的福祉。沙化土地封禁保护政策的可持续性关键就在与其生态绩效能否实现,地方政府能否克服发展区域经济的内在冲动而认真落实各项政策要件,封禁区周边农户能否认真配合政策的封禁规定而主动保护封禁区内的小生态系统。本文从上述3个视角进行了深入的分析并得出了一些有意义的结论,最后从项目建设资金未来的筹集渠道、政策预期、沙化封禁区选址以及提高项目区农户的认同和福利水平等方面给出了一些具体的政策建议。
Other AbstractSandification and desertification of the land in arid areas is one of the severe types of ecological degradation facing human society. Around 1/4 of the world’s land is under the threat from desertification, and the livelihood of more than 1 billion people from over 100 countries are affected by desertification, which spreads at the rate of 60,000 km2/a. In China, deserts, the Gobi Desert and desertification lands occupy 45.13% of the total national territorial area, and there are different levels of desertification in 18 provinces, cities and municipalities and 528 counties. Desertification control has always been a core part of China’s ecological construction layout. To prevent and control desertification and govern already-formed desertification land, in 2013, the central government issued the national desertified land sealed protection policy (the policy for short) and implemented it in pilot areas, Desertified areas that near deserts are seriously destroyed by human, experience intensified desertification, have an important ecological position, and should be governed but do not possess governance conditions at present are classified into several sealed conservation areas of desertified lands. Measures including fencing four boundaries of the protected areas, eco-migration, banning grazing, cultivating, logging, woodcutting and hunting should be taken to protect desert vegetation and promote natural recovery of desert vegetation, for the purpose of containing the expansion of sandification and maintaining ecological security. At the pilot phase, tentative duration of the national sealed protection of the desertified area is 7 years. By the end of 2017, the first and second batches of pilot counties have entered the “last phase” of sealed protection period. At this time, conducting an in-depth evaluation of the overall performance of the national policy and discussing the sustainability of the policy theoretically are of important referential significance for the practice of national desertified land control.This article takes the counties that implement the policy in Hexi Corridor, Gansu province, as the sample areas, conducts a quantitative analysis and evaluation of the sustainability of the policy itself and its implementation based on micro-data on the sample areas, and hence estimates scientific standards about compensations for enclosure carried out in the sealed desertified areas from the perspective of the improvement of the policy sustainability. Main conclusions are as follows:As for the sustainability of the policy, this study evaluates the sustainability of the policy itself from two perspectives—ecological performance and economic performance:First, the ecological safety evaluation index calculated by normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), land cover change and soil erosion intensity together is used to represent the efficiency of ecological management of sealed desertified areas, then GIS technology is employed to figure out ecological security indexes of the sample areas and compare the indexes before and after enclosure, and the changes in the indexes are used to evaluate ecological performance of the policy. The study shows that since sealed protection measures were taken four years ago, the value of the ecological security of sealed desertified areas dropped by 17.68% in comparison with that before enclosure, ecological security level changed for the better on the whole, ecological protection by sealing desertified areas have realized remarked effects, and the policy achieved good ecological performance.Second, contingent valuation method (CVM) was utilized as the research method to investigate urban families in the sample counties and peasant households in the project area about their willingness to pay (WTP) for the benefits of environmental improvement of sealing desertified areas and estimate the economic value and the policy’s benefit-cost efficiency on the basis of survey microdata. The study shows that among the sample population, 96% of peasant households and 98.68% of urban families have relevantly stronger consumer preference and willingness to pay for the benefits of the environmental improvement of sealing desertified areas, namely willing to donate for ecological protection for continuing to enjoy the benefits. Sampled peasant households’ willingness to pay for improving the benefits is 162.81 yuan/year/household, while that of urban families in the sample areas is 180.07 yuan/ year/household, the total environmental value created by the sealed protection is as high as 858.857 million yuan for the study area every year. According to the evaluation results of the environmental value of the sealed protection in sample areas, the policy’s benefit-cost ratio is 1.43:1, indicating that the policy has a good return on investment (economic performance).Based on the above analysis, the policy has achieved good ecological effects and excellent economic performance, continuing to maintain (or keep) the policy is an advisable policy choice for the future, therefore the policy itself is sustainable.For the sustainability of the implementation of the policy, this article conducts a quantitative analysis and study from the perspectives of incentive compatibility differences between stakeholders—the local governments in the process of implementing the policy and of recognition of policy collaborator—peasant households in the sealed conservation area about the policy.First, different job costs in principal-agent relations and the differences between agents in “incentive compatibility” under a contract structure are taken as research perspective, with two holistic problems influencing the sustainable implementation of the policy found in the actual survey as the starting point, to study the differences between local governments in incentive compatibility when performing the policy on behalf of the central government. The study indicates that the sustainable implementation of the policy varies from place to place. In areas carrying out the policy with high opportunity cost, local governments have a weak incentive to push the policy, resulting to the low sustainability of the policy implementation, while in places executing the policy with a low opportunity cost, local governments have a strong incentive, as a result, the policy implementation is more sustainable. In extreme cases, when the policy implementation requires an extremely high opportunity cost, the incentive compatibility of a local government to carry out the policy is 0, which means the local government will not carry out the desertified land sealed protection project. The sustainability of the policy itself influences the sustainability of the policy implementation, and the implementation of the policy is still in the pilot phase at present, which will exert a negative influence on the sustainable implementation of the policy. When the central government makes a trustworthy promise to push the policy by issuing formal institution and detailed implementation rules, allocating sufficient funds in a timely manner or taking other actions, and local governments have clear policy expectations, the policy implementation is of high sustainability, otherwise, the sustainability will be low.Second, based on survey data on peasant households in the sample areas, TOPSIS method and bivariate logistic regression model are used to assess how peasant households in study areas recognize the policy and analyze the variables of demographic and socio-economic characteristics of peasant households that have a significant influence on their recognition. The study shows that among all samples, peasant households who highly recognize desertified land governance take up as high as 90%, which indicates that the vast majority of peasant households in the project areas highly approve and support the construction of sealing desertified areas and the policy and hence actively cooperate with policies and regulations regarding sealed protection in desertified land, thus laying a sound micro-foundation for the sustainable implementation of the policy. The factors significantly influencing how peasant households recognize sandy land governance are their age-bracket, educational level and whether peasant households have suffered from the losses caused by desertification, meanwhile, the recognition of peasant households varies significantly in counties. Specifically, the senior have a higher recognition, those who have a higher educational level have a higher recognition, and those peasant households who have suffered from the loss caused by desertification will have a higher recognition of decertified land governance.For further enhancing the sustainability of the policy, this article starts from the fact that the construction of sealing desertified areas has caused opportunity cost to the livelihood of some peasant households nearby, and conducts quantitative analysis on two levels- proving the necessity to introduce sealed protection compensation mechanism to sealed desertified areas and calculating scientific and reasonable sealed protection compensation standards:First, the analysis with a game model with “local governments and peasant households in the enclosed areas” as players indicates that if sealed protection compensation policy is introduced to sealed desertified areas and gives peasant households whose livelihood are affected reasonable compensations, their rational choice will be abiding by the regulations of the sealed protection policy and will not conduct illegal behaviors such as illegal herding, illegal picking and illegal felling in the sealed desertified areas. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce a sealed protection compensation mechanism to sealed desertified areas, which will serve as a forceful guarantee for the sustainable implementation of the policy.Second, further calculation with minimum data method shows that if peasant households in the sealed protection areas are compensated in accordance with current compensation standard for returning farmland to forestry-3,600 yuan/hm2(240 yuan/mu), then compensation standards are too low and incentive effect is limited, while if the compensation standard is set as 19,770 yuan/hm2(1,318 yuan/mu), then it will encourage all peasant households near sealed desertified areas to voluntarily transform their land utilization model from cultivation to sealed protection, which will lead to a sharp decrease in demand for water for agricultural irrigation and make great room for ecological water use, leading to enormous effects of ecological protection and a substantial improvement in the performance of sandy land enclosure and protection policy.Based on the analysis above, although the policy has a solid mass base in the project area, which follows that sustainable implementation has a sound micro foundation, yet its implementation gave rise to the opportunity cost of local government to develop economy and that of the livelihood of peasant households, and sealed protection compensation policy has not been implemented in the project area now, as a result, in areas with a low opportunity cost, the policy implementation is of high sustainability, while in areas with a high opportunity cost, the policy implementation has a worrying sustainability.The particularity of the national policy consists in its pursuit of pure ecological governance, so, the execution of sealed desertified area project will not directly exchange interests with local residents, nor directly increase the economic income of residents in the project area, rather, the project indirectly enhances the well-being of residents by improving the ecological environment of the project area. The keys to the sustainability of the policy are whether its ecological performance can be achieved, whether local government can overcome its inner impulse to grow regional economy and seriously carry out all policies and documents and whether peasant households around the enclosed areas can seriously cooperate with the policy’s regulations regarding the enclosure and proactively protect the small ecosystem in the enclosed areas. From the three perspectives above, this article conducts an in-depth analysis and makes some meaningful conclusions, and lastly proposes some specific policy recommendations, including building future fund-raising channels, policy expectation, selecting sites for sealed desertified areas and improving the recognition of peasant households in the project area and welfare level.
Pages148
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/341061
Collection经济学院
Affiliation经济学院
First Author AffilicationSchool of Economics
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
周夏伟. 国家沙化土地封禁保护政策可持续性研究—以河西走廊为例[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.
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