兰州大学机构库 >经济学院
干旱内陆河流域生态资本补偿问题研究—以甘肃省石羊河流域为例
Alternative TitleSTUDY ON ECOLOGICAL CAPITAL COMPENSTAION IN ARID INLAND RIVER BASIN: A CASE STUDY SHIYANGHE RIVER IN GANSU PROVINCE
罗万云
Thesis Advisor韦惠兰
2019-12-01
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline区域经济学
Keyword干旱内陆河流域 生态资本补偿 石羊河流域 生态安全 价值评估 土地利用 情景模拟 最小数据方法 补偿标准
Abstract党的十八大以来,中国政府将生态文明建设提到事关中华民族永续发展的战略高度。当前,在干旱内陆河流域生态文明建设进程中,仍然面临着生态资本内涵不清,服务价值核算困难、生态补偿粗放等基础性难题。对于干旱内陆河流域来说,水源涵养服务是生态系统向人类提供的一种可再生的“生态资本”,只要我们谨慎使用,积极保护,生态系统就会持续的向外界供给。但是,由于自然和人文因素导致石羊河流域水源涵养功能萎缩、土地沙化加剧,荒漠植被衰败,生态退化导致了石羊河生态资本供给量下降,“绿水青山”难以实现向“金山银山”转换。本研究以甘肃省石羊河为案例区,将生态系统向人类提供的水源涵养服务视为一种重要的“生态资本”,运用生态经济方法对生态资本补偿问题展开分析。本文在已有研究成果的基础上,界定了干旱内陆河流域生态资本概念,从经济学视角对生态资本补偿逻辑做了分析,试图解决生态资本补偿中的如下问题:第一,石羊河的生态资本供给量究竟有多少?其服务价值又是多少?第二,模拟土地利用情景与生态资本供给量变化的关系?明确生态资本补偿的目标。第三,分析土地利用转换过程中补偿价格、转换比例与生态资本补偿标准存在的联系?第四,农户作为生态资本供给者,其受偿意愿额多少?又存在那些因素影响受偿意愿额?基于上述问题,本研究试图对生态资本补偿需要回答的关键问题做有益尝试。分别得到以下结论:第一,通过对石羊河流域正在实施的退耕还林(草)、草地禁牧等土地利用转换工程进行分析,搜集统计资料,结合多次实地调查结果,运用动态博弈分析方法,对现行生态资本补偿进行评价,分析背后中央政府与地方政府、政府和农户的博弈行为和机理。结果表明:①中央政府制度的生态资本补偿应该考虑地方政府在土地利用转换项目中的工作积极程度和风险规避特征以及生态资本供给量等因素,实现委托双方利益最大化。②政府作为生态补偿的“制定者”和“实施者”,在生态补偿设计之初,补偿标准并不能有效弥补农户参与成本和机会成本,农户的生计诉求常常被忽视,造成了较低效的子博弈精炼纳什均衡(不足额补偿,消极参与)。政府应该在土地利用转换中选择足额补偿策略,以解决农户消极参与问题,提高土地利用转换面积,实现生态资本供给量的增加。第二,本文运用InVEST模型,经过参数本地化处理,定量分析了2000年和2015年石羊河流域生态资本供给量和空间格局变化。结果表明:①石羊河流域生态资本供给能力有所提升,生态资本的单元栅格价值由2000年的67679.61元/年上升到2015年的75541.11元/年,单元栅格价值的空间分布格局由上游向下游逐渐递减趋势。②从生态资本供给价值总量来看,石羊河流域由2000年的40.09×108元/年上升到2015年的44.79×108元/年,上游肃南县、天祝县的生态资本供给价值最高,为12.27×108元/年和15.71×108元/年;下游地区是生态资本供给能力的低值区域,主要分布在民勤、金昌等地。③不同土地利用类型的生态资本供给能力各有差异,依次为林地>高覆盖草地>中覆盖草地>低覆盖草地>耕地>水域>建设用地>未利用土地。第三,2000-2015年,石羊河流域土地利用变化主要集中在耕地、林地、草地、未利用土地之间转换。从土地利用转换与生态资本供给量来看,退耕还林对提升生态资本供给量的贡献最高,其次是退耕还草、草地禁牧。结果表明:①通过InVEST模拟,石羊河流域将适宜的土地进行“退耕还林”、“退耕还草”、“草地禁牧”转换,生态资本供给量达到59.68×108元/年、56.58×108元/年、48.99×108元/年。②本文运用Matlab2017a中全局优化工具箱(Matlab Global Optimization Toolbox),得到“保留耕地”、“退耕还草”、“草地禁牧”、“退耕还林”转换类型的分类条件(T1=11.98、T2=30.11、T3=59.97),确定石羊河流域适宜退耕还草区域为6588.57万亩、适宜草地禁牧区域为2455.33万亩、适宜退耕还林区域为1110.36万亩。第四,通过问卷调查方法获取到生态资本供给者的土地利用转换成本,根据现有退耕还林(草)、草地禁牧等工程执行情况,运用最小数据方法,利用Matlab2017a软件模拟了不同土地利用情景下的生态资本供给量与生态补偿标准的关系。结果表明:①现行给予土地利用转换而实施的补偿标准严重偏低,“退耕还林(草)”工程若按照模拟出的情景3(天祝县569.14元/亩,肃南县538.68元/亩,民勤县1490元/亩,1671.44元/亩,永昌县1907.92元,金昌市1380.41元/亩,古浪县651.45元/亩)对农户展开补偿,可以激励大部分农户的耕地转化为林地或者草地,实现“退耕还林(草)”所能达到的生态资本供给量的理想目标(天祝县1.97×108立方米/年、肃南县1.46×108立方米/年、民勤县0.12×108立方米/年、武威市0.39×108立方米/年,永昌县0.41×108立方米/年、金昌市5.37×104立方米/年、古浪县0.51×108立方米/年)。②“草地禁牧”工程若能够按照模拟出的情景3(天祝县247.94元/亩、肃南县120.43元/亩)对农户进行补偿,可以实现“草地禁牧”所能达到的生态资本供给量(天祝县0.35×108立方米/年、肃南县0.42×108立方米/年)。③现行生态补偿难以弥补地方政府和农户参与土地利用转换的成本支出,若按照情景3执行,石羊河流域生态补偿资金比低于1542083.34万元(天祝县245323.2万元、肃南县205977.53万元、民勤县52761.06万元、武威市425603.06万元、永昌县409192.36万元、金昌市4085.97万元、古浪县199140.16万元)。第五,通过贝叶斯估计可以看出,石羊河流域农户的受偿意愿额是存在明显土地类型差异以及空间差异。结果显示:①从土地类型来看,石羊河流域农户的耕地受偿意愿额明显高于草地(耕地828.97元/亩,草地185.51元/亩)。②从空间来看,上游天祝县、肃南县的农户受偿意愿额明显低于中下游民勤县、永昌县、金昌市、武威市、古浪县的。③运用线性回归分析方法和分位数回归分析方法,农户受偿意愿额的影响因素包括农户年龄、受访者教育程度、家庭劳动力数量、家庭耕地/草地数量、家庭年收入、水资源紧缺程度、耕地/草地转换的生态效益评价、生态资本认知等。
Other AbstractSince the 18th national congress of the communist party of China (CPC), the Chinese government has made ecological progress a strategic priority for the sustainable development of the Chinese nation. At present, in the process of ecological civilization construction in arid inland river basin, there are still some basic problems, such as unclear connotation of ecological capital, difficulty in service value accounting and extensive ecological compensation. For arid inland river basin, the water conservation service ecosystem provides a kind of renewable ecological capital to human beings. As long as we use it prudently and protect it actively, the ecosystem will continue to provide to the outside world. However, due to natural and human factors, the water conservation function of Shiyang river basin shrinks, land desertification intensifies, and desert vegetation declines. The above-mentioned ecological degradation directly leads to the decrease of ecological capital supply in Shiyang river basin, and it is difficult to realize the transformation from "green mountains" to "golden mountains". This study takes Shiyang river in Gansu province as the case area, extracts the connotation of ecological capital, selects water conservation services in the ecosystem services to represent ecological capital, and uses various technical methods to analyze the compensation of ecological capital. On the basis of existing research results, this paper defines the concept and connotation in continental river basin in arid ecological capital, from the perspective of economics of ecological capital compensation logic analysis, this study tried to solve the problem of ecological capital compensation in the following: first, in continental river basin in arid ecological capital supply how much? What is the value of the service? Second, the relationship between simulated land use scenarios and changes in ecological capital supply? Make clear the goal of ecological capital compensation. Thirdly, the paper analyzes the relationship between compensation price, conversion ratio and ecological capital compensation standard in the process of land use conversion. Fourthly, as the provider of ecological capital, how much will farmers and herdholders be compensated? And what factors affect the amount of compensation? Based on the above questions, this study tries to make a beneficial attempt to answer the key questions of ecological capital compensation. The following conclusions were obtained respectively:First, through to the Shiyang river basin is the implementation of land use conversion project is analyzed, such as " Grain-for-Green Programme", "non-grazing" and a series of ecological construction, collecting statistical data, combined with field investigation results, many times by using dynamic game analysis method, to evaluate the current ecological compensation, behind the analysis of the central government and the government at the county level, the government and the game behavior and mechanism of fanning and grazing household. The results show that: ①The ecological capital compensation policy of the central government system should take into account the factors such as the county government's efforts in land use conversion projects, risk aversion characteristics and ecological capital supply, so as to maximize the interests of both parties. ②As the "maker" and "implementer" of ecological compensation, at the beginning of the design of ecological compensation, the compensation standard could not effectively compensate farmers and herdsmen's participation cost and opportunity cost, and farmers and herdsmen's livelihood demands were often ignored, resulting in a relatively inefficient sub-game refined Nash equilibrium (insufficient compensation and negative participation).The government should choose full compensation strategy in land use conversion to solve the problem of negative participation of farmers and herdsmen, so as to improve land use conversion area and increase the supply of ecological capital. Secondly, this paper used InVest model to conduct a quantitative analysis on the changes of ecological capital supply and spatial pattern in Shiyang river basin in 2000 and 2015 after the localization of parameters. ①In the past 15 years, the supply capacity of ecological capital in Shiyang river basin has been improved. The supply capacity of unit ecological capital has increased from 67679.61 yuan / year in 2000 to 75541.11 yuan / year in 2015. The spatial distribution pattern of unit average ecological capital supply capacity and total ecological capital supply decreased gradually from the upstream to the downstream. ②The supply capacity of ecological capital has increased from 40.09×108 hundred million/year in 2000 to 44.79×108 hundred million/year in 2015. Sunan county and Tianzhu county have the highest unit ecological capital supply capacity, which was 12.27×108 hundred million/year in 2000 and 15.71×108 hundred million/year in 2015. The middle and lower reaches of Shiyang river basin are the low value areas of ecological capital supply capacity, mainly distributed in Minqin, Jinchang and other places. ③From the perspective of unit average ecological capital supply capacity of different land use types, the order is: forest land, >, high  coverage grass land, >, low coverage grass land, >, arable land, >, water area, > construction land, and > unused land. Third, from 2000 to 2015, land use changes in Shiyang river basin mainly concentrated in the conversion between cultivated land, forest land, grassland and unused land. From the perspective of land use conversion and ecological capital supply, returning farmland to forest has the highest contribution to improving ecological capital supply, followed by returning farmland to grass and banning grazing on grassland. The results show that: ①Through Invest simulation, Shiyang river basin can convert suitable land into " Grain-for-Green Programme " and "non-grazing", and ecological capital supply reaches 59.68×108 hundred million/year, 56.58×108 hundred million/year and 48.99×108 hundred million/year. ②This paper USES Global Optimization Toolbox in Matlab2017a (Global Matlab Optimization Toolbox), is "reserved cultivated land", "returning farmland and grassland" and "grassland grazing prohibition", "returning farmland to forest" conversion type classification conditions (T1=11.98, T2=30.11, T3=59.97), and determine the Shiyang river basin is suitable for returning farmland and grassland area of 658800 mu, appropriate grassland grazing prohibition area of 245500 mu, is suitable for returning farmland to forest area of 111000 mu. Fourthly, the land use conversion cost of the ecological capital provider is obtained through questionnaire survey, and the minimum data method is used according to the implementation of the existing projects such as returning farmland to forest (grass), grazing prohibition and so on Matlab2017a software was used to simulate the relationship between ecological capital supply and ecological compensation standard under different land use scenarios. The results show that: ①The current compensation standard for Land use conversion is seriously low, if the project of returning farmland to forest (grass) proceeds to farmers and herdsmen according to the simulated scenario 3 (569.14 yuan / mu in Tianzhu county, 538.68 yuan / mu in Sunan county, 1490 yuan / mu in Minqin county, 1671.44 yuan / mu, 1907.92 yuan / mu in Yongchang county, Jinchang county in 1380.41 yuan / mu, Gulang county, 651.45 yuan / mu) , most farmers and herders can be encouraged to convert their arable land into woodland or grassland Achieve the ideal target of the supply of ecological capital for converting cropland to forest (grass) (1.97×108 M3 / year in Tianzhu county, 1.46×108 m3 / year in Sunan county, 0.12×108 m3 / year in Minqin county, 0.39×108 m3 / year in Wuwei city, 0.41×108 m3 / year in Yongchang county, 5.37×104 m3 / year in Jinchang and 0.51×108 m3 / year in Gulang county). ②If the non-grazing project can compensate farmers and herdsmen according to the scenario 3 (247.94 yuan / mu in Tianzhu county and 120.43 yuan / mu in Sunan county) , the supply of ecological capital can be achieved by grazing ban on grassland (0.35×108 m3 / Year in Tianzhu county and 0.42×108 m3 / year in Sunan county). ③It is difficult for the present ecological compensation to cover the cost of the county government and the fanning and grazing household in the land use conversion Shiyang River Basin Ecological Compensation Fund ratio is less than 1542,083.34 million yuan (Tianzhu county 245,323.2 million yuan, Sunan county 205,977.53 million yuan, Minqin county 52,761.06 million yuan, Wuwei city 425,603.06 million yuan, Yongchang county 409,192.36 million yuan, Jinchang county 40,859.7 million yuan and Jinchang county 199,140.16 million yuan) . Fifth, it can be seen from Bayesian estimation that there are significant land type and spatial differences in the compensation willingness of farmers and herdsmen in Shiyang river basin. The results showed that: ① In terms of land type, the amount of compensation willingness of farmers in Shiyang river basin was significantly higher than that of grassland (828.97 yuan / mu of farmland, 185.51 yuan / mu of grassland). ② From the perspective of space, the fanning and grazing household of Tianzhu county and Sunan county compensation willingness is significantly lower than the middle and lower Minqin county, Yongchang county, Jinchang city, Wuwei city, Gulang county. ③ Using linear regression analysis method and quantile regression analysis method, the factors affecting the amount of fanning and grazing household's payments will include fanning and grazing household's age, education level, family labor quantity/grass land, family, family income, degree of water resources, cultivated land grass to convert the ecological benefit evaluation, ecological capital of recognition, etc.
Pages187
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/341063
Collection经济学院
Affiliation经济学院
First Author AffilicationSchool of Economics
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
罗万云. 干旱内陆河流域生态资本补偿问题研究—以甘肃省石羊河流域为例[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2019.
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