兰州大学机构库 >资源环境学院
绿色、公平的人文发展水平评估及其与能源消费的关联——基于面板数据的国际比较
Alternative TitleEvaluation of Green and Fair Human Development and its Relation with Energy Consumption——International Comparison Based on Panel Data
梁曼
Thesis Advisor牛叔文
2018-10-11
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name博士
Degree Discipline人文地理学
Keyword绿色 公平 人文发展水平 能源消费 面板数据模型
Abstract发展是人类社会永恒的主题,当前世界发展面临着南北差距拉大、资源短缺、 环境污染等严峻挑战。与此同时,人类对美好生活的追求已不仅是单一的物质福 利的满足,还要求良好的生态环境和公平包容的社会环境。当前‘以人为本’、‘包容性增长’、‘可持续发展’的理念已成为全球共识。人文发展水平作为全球 治理的重要参考指标,传统的指标评价体系中较少考虑到资源环境的消耗和发展 成果分配的公平性。此情形下,在人文发展水平的评估过程中考虑环境福利和社 会公平是非常必要的。而能源是人类生存和发展的重要物质基础,它的开发与利 用影响到人类生活的每一个方面。能源消费在促进一个国家和地区经济增长,支 撑社会发展,改善人民生活水平的同时,还关系到国家节能减排和环境保护政策 的制定和实施。具体地,能源消费是如何影响着一国或地区人文社会的发展,这 种影响在不同地理区域、不同发展阶段是否具有不同特征值得思考。而国内外的 相关研究却很薄弱,因此加强能耗与人文发展的内在关联的研究显得十分必要。 据此,本文主要做了以下工作:1)基于联合国开发计划署(UNDP)公布 的人文发展指数(HDI)和相关国际组织发布的能源消费数据,梳理传统视角下 的世界各国人文发展历史过程与现状格局以及世界能源消费的一般特征,从而对 二者的内在关系形成初步认识,为后文的深入分析提供基础。2)以世界主要的 65 个国家为研究对象,将物质福利、环境可持续性和社会公平三方面的内容同 时纳入到评价指标体系中,分基础人文发展(CHDI1)、公平修正的人文发展 (CHDI2)、绿色修正的人文发展(CHDI3)以及综合修正的人文发展(CHDI4) 四个层次,采用 DP2 方法从时空两个维度评估 1990-2014 年 65 国真实的人文发 展水平和变化特征。3)基于 65 国 1990-2014 年的面板数据,通过面板单位根、 面板协整、基于误差修正的因果关系检验来验证能源消费与人文发展指标的内在 关联。之后建立能源消费与人文发展指标的面板数据模型,揭示能耗对人文发展 的效应,并用虚拟变量分离出地理环境效应和经济效应的影响。文章的主要结论 如下:(1)1990-2014 年,65 国 4 种人文发展的得分都在增长,但发展极不平衡。 全球基础人文发展 CHDI1 的基本格局变化不大,欧美发达国家始终位于前列, 非洲和南亚国家排在后位,而且绝对差距还在扩大。公平修正后的人文发展得分 减小,2014 年 65 国平均的 CHDI2 比 CHDI1 降低了 7.6‰。考虑到环境影响,人 文发展成果大幅度缩水。CHDI3 比同期的 CHDI1 降低,且降幅逐步扩大,2014 年 65 国平均的 CHDI3 较之于 CHDI1降低 21.1%。经过公平和绿色的双重修正后, 人文发展成果缩水超过 1/5。1990-2014 年 65 国平均的 CHDI4 比 CHDI1 减小了 23.3%。1990-2014 年,中国基础人文发展得分迅速提高,拉近了与 65 国 CHDI1 平均值的距离。中国人文发展的公平、绿色和综合三种修正力度均大于 65 国平 均修正幅度,这表明环境和公平因素成为进一步提高中国人文发展所必需改进的 方面。 (2)65 个国家能源消费与人文发展指标之间存在长期均衡关系。能源消费 与人均 GDP、人均消费支出在短期内显现出双向因果关联,而对教育、医疗、 健康方面的影响要要历较长时期才能显现出来。能源消费与人均碳排放在长期和 短期上,均存在双向因果关联。 (3)人文发展基数在个体之间和时间序列上存在巨大差异。收入水平越高 的国家,其人文发展基本需求满足程度越高。考虑到环境可持续性后,韩国、日 本、瑞典等国的人文发展成效最优。社会公平方面,一些低收入国家的社会不平 等现象严重;中等收入国家内部发展不均衡;发达国家社会经济发展相对均衡。 从时点上看,能源消费对人文发展基本需求指标和社会公平指标的截距均随时间 推移而显著增加,而环境可持续指标的截距项随时间推移而显著减少。 (4)能源消费对人文发展的边际效应在国家个体之间和时间序列上也存在 差异。能源消费对经济发展的促进作用明显,尤其在能耗相对较低的国家,这种 边际效应更大。考虑到社会公平后,能源消费对拉美国家经济发展的边际贡献明 显减小。能源消费对欠发达国家成人识字率、高等院校入学率的提高作用高于发 达国家。能源消费对欠发达国家获得改善的卫生设施的人口比例和出生时预期寿 命的边际贡献最小。经济技术水平落后的国家,能源消费对人均碳排放的边际效 应大。能源消费对森林覆盖率的边际效应在部分欠发达国家中表现为负效应。从 时间序列上看,能源消费对人文发展的边际贡献缓慢增加。而能源消费对人均碳 排放的弹性系数缓慢减小。 (5)收入水平、地区温度、能源丰裕度影响着能源消费和人文发展的关联。 人文发展基本需求满足程度与国家收入水平一致。考虑到社会公平因素,高收入 国家的发展基础依然最好,中等偏下收入国家和低收入国家的发展基础优于中等 偏上收入国。低收入国家的可持续性最优,高收入国家次之,最后是中等偏下收 入国家和中等偏上收入国家。能源消费对高收入国家教育水平的边际贡献大于低 收入国,小于中等偏下、中等偏上收入国家。能源消费对医疗、预期寿命的边际 效应,在中等偏上收入国家最为明显,其次为高收入国家,接着是中等偏下收入 国和低收入国家。中等收入国家单位能耗的增加带来的碳排放增量最多,其次是 高收入国家,最后是低收入国家。能源消费对森林覆盖率的效用,随国家收入水 平的增加而提升。同等条件下,满足同等程度的人文发展基本需求,温差高的国 家耗费的能源更多,尤其是在被解释变量是人均 GDP、成人识字率、获得改善 的卫生设施的人口比例、出生时预期寿命时,这种地理环境效应表现得最为明显。 考虑到社会公平因素后,高温差国家的能源消费对经济发展的均衡度的边际贡献 依然小于其他三组国家。温差高的国家单位能耗的增加造成的人均碳排放的增加 量高于温差低、温差较高的国家,而接近于温差较低的国家。高温差国家的能源 消费对森林覆盖率的边际效应小于温差低和温差较高的国家,大于温差较低的国 家。一次能源产量最高的国家,其能源消费对人文发展基本需求指标和社会公平 指标的边际贡献均小于其他三类国家,而在环境可持续性方面,资源禀赋最好的 国家的能耗对碳排放和森林覆盖率的边际效用大于资源禀赋最差的国家。 基于上述结论,本文认为,对发展中国家而言,减贫和发展经济是首要发展 任务,发达国家则要关注能源效率的提高,并承担更多的减排责任。此外,本文 针对中国的人文发展提出坚持科学发展观、改善民生、促进能源系统转型等三方 面的对策建议。
Other AbstractDevelopment is an eternal theme of human society. The World development is faced with severe challenges such as the widening gap between the North and the South, the shortage of resources, environmental pollution and so on. At the same time, the content of mankind's pursuit of a better life has expanded from the only material welfare satisfaction, to a good ecological environment and a fair and inclusive social environment additionally. Nowadays, the concepts of "people-oriented", "inclusive growth" and "sustainable development" have become a global consensus. The human development is an important reference index for global governance. The traditional evaluation system seldom considers the consumption of resources and environment and the fairness of development results assignment, so it is necessary to take environmental welfare and social equity into consideration when evaluating the level of human development. Energy is an important material base for human survival and development, and its development and utilization affect human life in every aspect. Energy consumption not only promotes the economic growth of a country and a region, supports social development and improves people's living standards, but also affects the formulation and implementation of national energy conservation, emission reduction and environmental protection policies. Specifically, the influence mechanism of the energy consumption on the development of human society in a country or region and whether this influence has different characteristics spatially and temporally worth considering. However, the relevant research at home and abroad is very weak, so it is necessary to strengthen the study of the internal relationship between energy consumption and human development. According to the above analysis, this paper has done the following work: 1) This study analyzed the historical process and current situation of human development in the world and the general characteristics of the world energy consumption in the traditional perspective based on the Human Development Index (HDI) and energy consumption data published by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and relevant international organizations respectively so as to have a preliminary knowledge of the inner relationship between the two and lay a foundation for further analysis. 2) Taking 65 major countries in the world as research subjects, material welfare, environmental sustainability and social equity are integrated into the evaluation index system, which includes four categories: basic human development (CHDI1), fairness-corrected human development (CHDI2), greenness-corrected human development (CHDI3) and comprehensive corrected human deveopment(CHDI4). DP2 is used to evaluate the real level of human development and its changing characteristics in 65 countries from 1990 to 2014 in spatial and temporal dimension. 3) Based on the panel data of 65 countries from 1990 to 2014, the relationship between energy consumption and human development is verified by panel unit root, Panel Cointegration and error correction-based causality test. Then the panel data model of energy consumption and human development indicators is established to reveal the effects of energy consumption on human development, in which the effects of geographical environment and economic effects are separated by virtual variables.The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The scores of 4 kinds of human development in the 65 countries are increasing with an extremely uneven feature during 1990-2014. The basic spatial pattern of CHDI1 has not changed much, with the developed countries in Europe and the United States always in the forefront, while the countries in Africa and South Asia in the second place, and the absolute gap is still widening. The revised human development score decreased with the average CHDI2 in 65 countries falling by 7.6‰ compared with CHDI1 in 2014.Taking the environmental impact into consideration, the results of human development have shrunk considerably. CHDI3 is lower than CHDI1 in the same period with an increasingly decrease rate. In 2014, the average CHDI3 in 65 countries is 21.1% lower than CHDI1.The dual revision of fair and green shows that results of human development have shrunk by more than 1/5. In the 1990-2014 years, the average CHDI4 of 65 countries is 23.3% lower than that of CHDI1.From 1990 to 2014, the score of basic human development in China increased rapidly, narrowing the gap with the average of CHDI1 in 65 countries. The revision degrees of fairness, greenness and comprehensiveness of human development in China are all bigger than the average revision range in 65 countries, indicating that environmental and fair factors have become the necessary aspects for further improvement of human development in China. (2) There is a long-term balanced relationship between energy consumption and human development indicators in 65 countries. Energy consumption has a two-way causal association with per capita GDP and per capita consumption expenditure in the short term, but the association with education, health care and health will take a long time to show. And there is a two-way causal association between energy consumption and per capita carbon emissions in the long run and short term. (3) There exists great difference between individuals and time series of the base of human development. The higher the income level in a country, the higher the basic needs of the humanities development. Given to the environmental sustainability, the human development in Korea, Japan and Sweden have the best results. In terms of social inequality, it is serious in some low-income countries, uneven in development in middle-income countries is uneven and relatively balanced in socio-economic aspects in developed countries. The intercept between basic human development demand index and social equity index of energy consumption increases significantly over time, while the intercept of environmental sustainability index decreases significantly over time. (4) The marginal effects of energy consumption on human development vary among individual countries and time series. Energy consumption plays a significant role in promoting economic development, with a larger effect in countries with relatively low energy consumption especially. Considering the social equity, the marginal effect contribution of energy consumption to the economic development is significantly reduced in Latin American countries. Energy consumption has a higher effect on the adult literacy rate and the enrollment rate of colleges and universities in less developed countries than that of developed countries. Energy consumption has the smallest marginal contribution to the population proportion with improved sanitation and life expectancy at birth in less developed countries. the marginal effect of energy consumption on per capita carbon emissions is large in countries with low economic and technological level. The marginal effect of energy consumption on forest coverage is negative in some underdeveloped countries. The marginal contribution of energy consumption to human development is increasing slowly, however, the elasticity coefficient of energy consumption to carbon emissions per capita decreases slowly from the time series (5) Income level, regional temperature and energy abundance affect the relationship between energy consumption and human development. The degree of satisfaction of basic needs of human development is consistent with the level of national income. Considering social equity, the development base of high-income countries is still the best, and the one in low-income and middle-income countries is better than that of upper-middle-income countries. Low-income countries have the best sustainability, followed by high-income countries, upper middle-income level countries and lower middle-income level countries. The marginal contribution of energy consumption to the education level of high-income countries is greater than that of low-income countries, and less than that of lower middle-income level countries and upper middle-income level countries. The marginal effects of energy consumption on health care and life expectancy are most obvious in middle-income countries, followed by high-income countries, middle-income countries and low-income countries. The increase in energy consumption per unit in middle-income countries leads to the greatest increase in carbon emissions, followed by high income countries and low-income countries. The effect of energy consumption on forest coverage increases with the increase of national income level. Under the same conditions, countries with high temperature differences consume more energy to meet the basic human development needs of the same degree and this geographic effect are more obvious when the explanatory variables are GDP per capita, adult literacy, the proportion of people who have access to improved health facilities, and life expectancy at birth. Considering social equity, the marginal contribution of energy consumption to the balance of economic development in high temperature differences countries is still smaller than that in other three groups of countries. The increase of carbon emissions per capita in countries with high temperature difference is higher than that in countries with low and high temperature difference, but close to that in countries with low temperature differences. The marginal effect of energy consumption on forest coverage rate in countries with high temperature differences is smaller than that in countries with low and high temperature differences, and greater than that in countries with low temperature differences. Countries with the highest primary energy production have less marginal contribution of energy consumption to basic human development needs and social equity indicators than that in other three kinds of countries. In terms of environmental sustainability, the marginal contribution of energy consumption to carbon emissions and forest coverage rate in the countries with the best resource endowment is greater than that in the countries with the lowest resource endowment. Based on the above conclusions, this paper argues that poverty reduction and economic development are the primary development tasks for developing countries, while developed countries should pay attention to the improvement of energy efficiency and more responsibility for emission reduction. In addition, this paper puts forward three measures and suggestions of adhering to the scientific development, improving people's livelihood, and promoting the transformation of the energy system in view of human development in China.
Pages165
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/344209
Collection资源环境学院
Affiliation资源环境学院
First Author AffilicationCollege of Earth Environmental Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
梁曼. 绿色、公平的人文发展水平评估及其与能源消费的关联——基于面板数据的国际比较[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.
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