兰州大学机构库 >资源环境学院
基于GSMaP数据的中国大陆近5年极端降水时空分布特征及与次生灾害关系研究
Alternative TitleStudy on the Spatial-Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in Recent 5 Years in Mainland China and its Relationship with Secondary Disasters Based on GSMaP Data
李晓婧
Thesis Advisor马金辉
2019-04-15
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline地图学与地理信息系统
Keyword极端降水 GSMaP 时序栅格数据集 空间格局 次生灾害
Abstract我国极端降水引发的次生灾害形势不容乐观。随着人口的增加和社会经济的发展,单位面积经济承载能力、基础设施、物质财富等暴露水平不断提高,山洪灾害和城市洪涝灾害等极端降水次生灾害日益严重,使国家利益和人民生命财产遭受巨大损失。从近年来大家热切关注的极端降水为出发点,采用日尺度与小时尺度的GSMaP遥感降水产品,利用Python及极端降水指数对中国大陆近5年极端降水时空特征进行分析,结合自然环境和社会经济等数据分析地理环境对降水极值的影响。利用从微博数据中提取极端降水次生灾害信息,以及典型区域实勘地质灾害信息,研究极端降水与次生灾害之间的关系。以期为我国区域协调发展及防洪水利建设提供参考依据。得到以下结论:(1)GSMaP降水遥感产品在我国大陆具有真实可靠性。(2)我国极端降水具有十分规律的地带性特征。南方地区强降水次数多、连续时间长、发生时间分散。华北地区极端降水占年降水比值高,强度大,年内强降水集中度高,洪涝灾害风险大,降水总时长相对其他地区偏少,也反映出华北干旱特征明显。西藏年内降水时长较长,极端降水强度偏低,集中度高,干湿季分明。西北大部、东北大部日均降水集中度较高,表达了这些地区的降水过程在年的非均匀分布特性。(3)研究区年降水平稳,北方地区尤其是华北-黄淮地区降水强度呈增加趋势。华北-黄淮地区较干旱,但极端降水强度大、历时短。北方地区极端降水比南方地区集中。华南地区年降水无明显变化趋势下,降水持续时间呈增加趋势,极端降水呈集中趋势。(4)海岸线距离、地形、高程、地形起伏度、社会经济水平,对降水极值、总量值有影响。海洋大气以及高程对极端日降水量、极端小时降水量的影响较大,地形起伏度对其他因子有协同作用;温度带与高程对降水总时长有较高的解释力。受海洋大气影响,青藏高原以东地区,降水极值与年降水量向东增长趋势明显,且山体西侧的降水极值高于东侧,而年降水量在山体东侧高于西侧,降水总时长受地形影响较大,与高程呈正相关。内陆地区的盆地地区的降水极值高于相邻的山体,而降水量、降水时长低于相邻的山体;青藏高原东缘随着地形突变,年降水量、年内降水总时长出现明显的高值突变;准格尔盆地年降水量、年降水时长较低,但降水极值较高。极端降水强度大的区域的地均GDP和人口密度往往较高,城市发展与短时强降水有着显著的正相关关系。在排除地形影响下,当城市达到一定规模,城市降水极值将高于周围区域,从而易形成城市暴雨。(5)极端降水次生灾害点呈聚集的分布模式,且不同类型的灾害的地理环境有差异。地理位置上,洪水灾害事件主要分布在我国东部沿海地区,滑坡与泥石流灾害点主要分布在我国西南地区、西北地区东部等地形起伏较大的地区,与研究区概况一致,特定的地质环境条件决定了该区域地质灾害呈长期高发态势。在地理环境上看,洪水多分布于我国海拔较低、地势较平坦、植被较稀疏、距海较近的地区,对经济较发达、人口密度较高的地区威胁较大;滑坡与泥石流多分布于我国地形起伏较大、植被较稀疏的地区。(6)次生灾害的降水极值具有明显的空间分异性,对短时强降水敏感。灾害点对小时极端降水表现出很强的敏感性,相对于滑坡与泥石流,洪水灾害对最大连续降水更为敏感。洪水灾害点最大日降水量、最大小时降水量、最大连续降水量均高于滑坡与泥石流灾害点。典型区域分析中白龙江流域地质灾害对极端降水较为敏感,短时强降水易引起其地质灾害的发生,同时易受周围水系影响。在一些地区由于人烟稀少,往往产生的洪涝、滑坡等次生灾害有害无灾。(7)不同地区引发的极端降水次生灾害的极端降水类型不同。我国东部部分灾害点尤其是偏北方地区,对研究中大部分极端降水指数表现出较高的响应水平,其中对小时尺度的极端降水指数的响应水平较高,表明该区易受短时强降水困扰。青藏高原东缘局部地区灾害点对干旱较为敏感,原因是在较高的年降水总时长的协同作用下,干燥的土体遇降水稳定性变差,易引发地质灾害。我国西部大部分地区对日尺度的极端降水指数较敏感。而我国东部还有部分灾害点,对各极端降水指数均表现出较低的响应水平,但不排除指数间或与环境间有协同作用。不同区域极端降水的变化趋势不同,并且对不同极端降水指数种类的敏感性也存在明显的差异。对极端降水可能引发的次生灾害要因地制宜,采取相应的防范措施。
Other AbstractThe situation of secondary disasters caused by extreme precipitation in China is not optimistic.With the increase of population and the development of social economy, the economic carrying capacity per unit area, infrastructure, material wealth and other exposure levels are constantly increasing, and the mountain flood disaster, urban flood disaster and other extreme precipitation secondary disasters are increasingly serious, causing huge losses of national interests and people's lives and property.Starting from the extreme precipitation that has attracted great attention in recent years, GSMaP remote sensing precipitation products on daily scale and hourly scale are adopted. Python and extreme precipitation index are used to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation in recent five years in mainland China, and the influence of geographical environment on extreme precipitation is analyzed by combining the data of natural environment and social economy.The information of extreme precipitation secondary disasters was extracted from the micro-blog data, and the geological disaster information was actually surveyed in typical regions to study the relationship between extreme precipitation and secondary disasters.In order to provide reference basis for regional coordinated development and flood control and water conservancy construction in China.The following conclusions are obtained: GSMaP precipitation remote sensing products have real reliability in mainland China. China's extreme precipitation has very regular zonal characteristics.Heavy precipitation in southern China has many times, long continuous time and time dispersion.In north China, the ratio of extreme precipitation to annual precipitation is high, the intensity is high, the concentration of heavy precipitation is high, the risk of flood disaster is high, and the total duration of precipitation is relatively small compared with other regions, which also reflects the obvious drought characteristics in north China.The annual precipitation in Tibet is long, the intensity of extreme precipitation is low, the concentration is high, and the dry and wet seasons are distinct.The average daily precipitation concentration in most parts of northwest and northeast China is relatively high, which shows the non-uniform distribution characteristics of precipitation process in these areas. The annual precipitation in the study area is stable, and the precipitation intensity in the northern region, especially in the north china-huanghuai region, shows an increasing trend.The north China - huanghuai region is relatively dry, but the intensity of extreme precipitation is large and the duration is short.Extreme precipitation is more concentrated in the north than in the south.The annual precipitation in south China showed no obvious change trend, the precipitation duration showed an increasing trend, and the extreme precipitation showed a centralized trend. Coastline distance, topography, elevation, topographic relief, and socio-economic level have an impact on the extreme value and total value of precipitation.Ocean atmosphere and elevation have great influence on extreme daily precipitation and extreme hourly precipitation, and topographic relief has synergistic effect on other factors.Temperature zone and elevation have higher explanatory power to the total duration of precipitation.Due to the influence of ocean and atmosphere, the precipitation extreme value and annual precipitation in the east of qinghai-tibet plateau show an obvious trend of eastward growth, and the precipitation extreme value in the west side of the mountain is higher than that in the east side of the mountain, while the annual precipitation in the east side of the mountain is higher than that in the west side.The extreme value of precipitation in the inland basin area is higher than the adjacent mountain, while the duration of precipitation and precipitation is lower than the adjacent mountain.In the eastern margin of qinghai-tibet plateau, with the abrupt change of topography, the annual precipitation and the total duration of annual precipitation have obvious high-value abrupt change.The annual precipitation and duration of annual precipitation in junger basin are low, but the extreme value of precipitation is high.In regions with high intensity of extreme precipitation, the per capita GDP and population density tend to be higher, and urban development has a significant positive correlation with short-term heavy precipitation.When the city reaches a certain scale, the extreme value of urban precipitation will be higher than the surrounding area, and thus it is easy to form urban rainstorm. The distribution pattern of extreme precipitation secondary disasters is aggregation, and the geographical environment of different types of disasters is different.Geographically, the flood disaster events are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas of China, and the landslide and debris flow disaster points are mainly distributed in the topographic undulating areas of southwest China and the eastern part of northwest China, which are consistent with the general situation of the study area. The specific geological environment conditions determine that the geological disasters in this area are in a long-term high incidence.In terms of geographical environment, floods are mostly distributed in areas with low altitude, flat terrain, sparse vegetation and close proximity to the sea in China, posing a great threat to areas with more developed economy and higher population density.Landslides and mud-rock flows are mostly distributed in areas with large topographic relief and sparse vegetation in China. The precipitation extreme value of secondary disasters has obvious spatial differentiation and is sensitive to short-time heavy precipitation.Compared with landslides and debris flows, flood hazards are more sensitive to maximum continuous precipitation.The maximum daily precipitation, maximum hourly precipitation and maximum continuous precipitation at flood disaster sites were all higher than those at landslide and debris flow disaster sites.In the typical regional analysis, the geological disasters in the bailong river basin are sensitive to the extreme precipitation, and the short-time heavy precipitation is easy to cause the occurrence of the geological disasters, and it is easy to be affected by the surrounding water system.In some areas due to the sparsely populated, often produce floods, landslides and other secondary disasters harmful disaster. Extreme precipitation types of secondary disasters caused by extreme precipitation are different in different regions.Some disaster sites in eastern China, especially those in the northern part of the country, show a relatively high response level to most of the extreme precipitation indexes in the study, among which the response level to the extreme precipitation index on an hourly scale is relatively high, indicating that this region is prone to short-term heavy precipitation.The local disaster sites in the eastern margin of the qinghai-tibet plateau are sensitive to drought, because under the synergistic action of higher annual total precipitation time, the stability of dry soil becomes worse when it encounters precipitation, which is easy to cause geological disasters.Most areas in western China are sensitive to diurnal extreme precipitation index.However, there are still some disaster sites in the east of China, which show a low response level to all extreme precipitation indexes. However, a synergistic effect between the indexes and the environment cannot be excluded.The variation trend of extreme precipitation is different in different regions, and the sensitivity to different extreme precipitation index types is also obviously different.The secondary disasters caused by extreme precipitation should be adjusted to local conditions and corresponding preventive measures should be taken.
Pages115
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttp://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/344264
Collection资源环境学院
Affiliation资源环境学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
李晓婧. 基于GSMaP数据的中国大陆近5年极端降水时空分布特征及与次生灾害关系研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2019.
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