兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
Reconstruction of conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming
Zhao JunHu1,2; Feng GuoLin1
2014-12
Source PublicationScience China-Earth Sciences   Impact Factor & Quartile Of Published Year  The Latest Impact Factor & Quartile
ISSN1674-7313
Volume57Issue:12Pages:3047-3061
AbstractWith the influence of global warming, the global climate has undergone significant inter-decadal variation since the late 1970s. Although El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been the strongest signal for predicting global climate inter-annual variability, its relation with the summer rainfall in China has significantly changed, and its indicative function on the summer rainfall in China has weakened. This has led to a significant decrease in the accuracy rate of early conceptual prediction models for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China. On the basis of the difference analysis of atmospheric circulation system configuration in summer, as well as the interaction of ocean and atmospheric in previous winter between two phases, i.e. before and after the significant global warming (1951 to 1978 and 1979 to 2012, respectively), we concluded that (1) Under different inter-decadal backgrounds, the atmospheric circulations that impacted the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China showed consistency, but in the latter phase of the global warming, the Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) was on the strong side, the position of which was in the south, and the blocking high in the Eurasia mid-high latitudes was active, while the polar vortex extended to the south, and meridional circulation intensified. This circulation background may have been conducive to the increase of the circulation frequency of Patterns II and III, and the decrease of the circulation frequency of Pattern I, thus leading to more Patterns II and III and fewer Pattern I in the summer rainfall of eastern China. (2) In the former phase, the corresponding previous winter SST fields of different rainfall patterns showed visible differences. The impact of ENSO on North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) was great, and the identification ability of which on Patterns I and II of summer rainfall was effective. In the latter phase, this identification ability decreased, while the impact of ENSO on the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern increased, and the identification ability of the PNA on Patterns II and III also increased. Based on the new inter-decadal climate background, this study reconstructs the conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in summer of eastern China by using the previous winter PNA and the Eurasian (EU) teleconnection indexes. The fitting effect was satisfying, though it is necessary to be further tested.
Keywordglobal warming climate change Three Rainfall Patterns ENSO NPO PNA prediction model
Subject AreaGeology
PublisherSCIENCE CHINA PRESS
DOI10.1007/s11430-014-4930-4
Publication PlaceBEIJING
Indexed BySCIE ; EI
Language英语
First Inst
Funding Project国家自然科学基金项目 ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划以及国家重大科学研究计划(973计划)
Host of Journal中国科学院
Project NumberNational Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955902, 2013CB430204] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40930952, 41375078]
WOS IDWOS:000346170700017
Funding OrganizationNSFC ; MOST
SubtypeArticle
EI ID20144600196079
Department[Zhao JunHu;
Feng GuoLin] China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China;
[Zhao JunHu] Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/119454
Collection大气科学学院
Corresponding AuthorFeng GuoLin
Affiliation
1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Climate Ctr, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China
2.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhao JunHu,Feng GuoLin. Reconstruction of conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming[J]. Science China-Earth Sciences,2014,57(12):3047-3061.
APA Zhao JunHu,&Feng GuoLin.(2014).Reconstruction of conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming.Science China-Earth Sciences,57(12),3047-3061.
MLA Zhao JunHu,et al."Reconstruction of conceptual prediction model for the Three Rainfall Patterns in the summer of eastern China under global warming".Science China-Earth Sciences 57.12(2014):3047-3061.
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