Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change

doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2837

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	Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change
	Huang, JP(黄建平); Yu, HP; Guan, XD; Wang, GY; Guo, RX; Huang, JP (reprint author), Lanzhou Univ, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
ESI NOTE	2017-07-19;Highly Cited Papers;Hot Papers
	2016-02
Source Publication	NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
ISSN	1758-678X
Volume	6 Issue:2 Pages:166
Abstract	Drylands are home to more than 38% of the total global population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities(1,2). Projecting the areal change in drylands is essential for taking early action to prevent the aggravation of global desertification(3,4). However, dryland expansion has been underestimated in the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulations(5) considering the past 58 years (1948-2005). Here, using historical data to bias-correct CMIP5 projections, we show an increase in dryland expansion rate resulting in the drylands covering half of the global land surface by the end of this century. Dryland area, projected under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, will increase by 23% and 11%, respectively, relative to 1961-1990 baseline, equalling 56% and 50%, respectively, of total land surface. Such an expansion of drylands would lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming(6,7), resulting in warming trends over the present drylands that are double those over humid regions. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming and rapidly growing human population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in the drylands of developing countries, where 78% of dryland expansion and 50% of the population growth will occur under RCP8.5.
Subject Area	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Publisher	NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI	10.1038/NCLIMATE2837
Publication Place	LONDON
Indexed By	SCIE ; SSCI ; ESI
Language	英语
First Inst	是
Funding Project	国家自然科学基金项目 ; 国家重点基础研究发展计划以及国家重大科学研究计划（973计划） ; 公益性行业科研专项 ; 高等学校学科创新引智计划（111计划）
Project Number	National Basic Research Program of China [2012CB955301] ; Special Public Welfare Research Fund of China [GYHY201206009] ; National Science Foundation of China [41521004, 41305009, 41405010] ; China University Research Talents Recruitment Program (111 project) [B13045]
WOS ID	WOS:000370963400017
Funding Organization	NSFC ; MOST ; MOE ; SAFEA
Subtype	Article
IRID	WOS:000370963400017
Department	[Huang, Jianping; Yu, Haipeng; Guan, Xiaodan; Wang, Guoyin; Guo, Ruixia] Lanzhou Univ, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Citation statistics	Cited Times:1381[WOS] [WOS Record] [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type	期刊论文
Identifier	https://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/182651
Collection	大气科学学院
Corresponding Author	Huang, JP (reprint author), Lanzhou Univ, Key Lab Semiarid Climate Change, Minist Educ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China.
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714	Huang, JP,Yu, HP,Guan, XD,et al. Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change[J]. NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,2016,6(2):166.
APA	Huang, JP,Yu, HP,Guan, XD,Wang, GY,Guo, RX,&Huang, JP .(2016).Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change.NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE,6(2),166.
MLA	Huang, JP,et al."Accelerated dryland expansion under climate change".NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE 6.2(2016):166.

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