兰州大学机构库 >生命科学学院
非洲尼罗河流域国家的生态安全评价
Alternative TitleEcological security evaluation of countries in the Nile Basin of Africa
杨玉萍
Thesis Advisor孙国钧
2017-05-10
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword尼罗河流域 生态安全 PSR模型 变异系数法
Abstract

尼罗河流域国家的资源、环境和人口一系列问题日益严重,生态环境脆弱,面临的危机已不单是环境方面的问题,而已然成为生态安全问题,严重影响国家乃至整个流域的安全。对尼罗流域的国家生态安全进行科学的评估,对于安全等级较低的区域,通过系统要素的优化组合或引入新要素,调整或重构生态安全格局,使关键性生态过程不受阻碍,系统所受胁迫控制在安全等级范围,为生态安全的支持和维护提供决策依据,为实现人类的永续发展奠定基础。

本文在对相关文献和基本理论理解的基础上,详细了解国内外生态安全领域评价指标体系设计和总的经验教训,利用世界银行和非洲开发银行1990-2014年的数据,建立尼罗河流域10个国家25年和南苏丹2011-2014年的生态安全数据库,利用肯尼亚国家统计局2005年,2006年和2009年的数据建立肯尼亚47个县的生态安全数据库。利用统计学方法将原始数据标准化,运用频度统计法和理论分析法,基于联合国经济合作开发署提出的压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)模型,建立综合评价指标体系,进而通过客观变异系数法赋权,利用综合指数模型在此框架下展开埃及、埃塞俄比亚、布隆迪、厄立特里亚、刚果(金)、肯尼亚、卢旺达、苏丹、南苏丹、坦桑尼亚、乌干达等尼罗河流域11个国家以及肯尼亚47个县的生态安全综合评价。得到了以下结论:(1)从1990-2014年,25年以来10个国家压力指数降序排列:乌干达→肯尼亚→厄立特里亚→坦桑尼亚→布隆迪→埃塞俄比亚→埃及→苏丹→刚果(金)→卢旺达。乌干达、肯尼亚、厄立特里亚的压力大,其主要原因是人口压力、经济发展压力和经济水平压力较大。(2)从1990-2014年,25年以来10个国家状态指数降序排列:埃及→厄立特里亚→苏丹→卢旺达→乌干达→坦桑尼亚→布隆迪→肯尼亚→埃塞俄比亚→刚果(金)。埃及、厄立特里亚、苏丹的状态较好,是因为农村改善的水源比例升高,森林覆盖率增加。(3)从1990-2014年,25年以来10个国家响应指数降序排列:埃及→苏丹→乌干达→肯尼亚→埃塞俄比亚→卢旺达→厄立特里亚→坦桑尼亚→刚果(金)→布隆迪。埃及、苏丹、乌干达响应较好,主要原因是科技期刊文章数量增加,加上政府相关部门加大了对基础设施的投资力度 。(4)从1990-2014年,25年以来10个国家生态安全综合指数降序排列:埃及→苏丹→乌干达→厄立特里亚→肯尼亚→埃塞俄比亚→卢旺达→坦桑尼亚→布隆迪→刚果(金)。埃及的压力指数低,状态指数和响应指数都排名第一,国家生态安全综合状况最好。苏丹和乌干达压力指数较低,状态指数和响应指数较高,国家生态安全综合状况也较好。(5)肯尼亚47个县2005-2009年期间,Lamu承受的生态安全压力最大,Kisii承受的生态安全压力最小;Wajir的生态安全状态最差,Laikipia的生态安全状态最好;Mandera的生态安全响应情况最差,Nairobi的生态安全响应情况最好;Wajir的生态安全综合状况最差,Nairobi的生态安全综合状况最好。肯尼亚东部地区承受的生态安全压力大,生态安全状态和响应差,而西北部和西南部承受的生态安全压力小,生态安全状态和响应良好。肯尼亚海拔均值东部较西部低,水热条件西部较东部更好,教育,社会服务,社会基础设施,保护区也多集中在西部和南部,地理位置和经济发展息息相关,共同影响着肯尼亚国内生态安全状况的地理变化。尼罗河流域国家婴儿死亡率高,人均预期寿命世界排名低,且有下降的趋势,虽然面临着各种各样的困难,但是尼罗河流域国家人口仍然增长迅速。人口的迅速增加,直接或间接的导致了很多社会、自然和经济问题的发生。

就本文的研究分析而言,尽管除苏丹之外的其他国家的生态安全状况在不断的向着更加安全的状况发展,但是,国家的生态安全状况波动大,在较安全状态下的国家的生态安全综合指数,多数只是略大于临界安全的上限,尼罗河流域国家生态安全情况不乐观。本文所计算出的国家生态安全总指数在一定程度上反映了各个国家生态安全状况,对全面认识国家生态安全状况有一定的指导作用,可以作为国家生态安全各项政策措施制定的参考。

Other Abstract

The series of problems including the aspects of resources, environment and population in the countries of Nile basin are becoming increasingly serious and the ecological environment is also fragile. The problems cause the crisis that is not only an environmental problem, but also an ecological security problem, which seriously affects the safety of the countries in the Nile basin.      Based on the understanding of the relevant literature and basic theory, learning more about the design and overall experience of the domestic and international ecological security field, and using the data of the World Bank and the African Development Bank from 1990 to 2014 establish the database that contains the 25-year data of 10 countries in the Nile Basin and South Sudan’s data from 2011 to 2014. Establish the comprehensive evaluation indices system based on the frequency statistics , theoretical analysis and the pressure-state-response (P-S-R) model which is proposed by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development. Use the statistical methods to standardize the original data and the coefficient of variation method to weight for indicators. According to the composite index model, evaluate the ecological security of 11 countries, including Egypt, Ethiopia, Burundi, Eritrea, Congo (Kinshasa), Kenya, Rwanda, Sudan, South Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda in the Nile Basin. Get the following conclusions:(1) from 1990 to 2014, the national pressure index in descending order:Uganda → Kenya → Eritrea → Tanzania → Burundi → Ethiopia → Egypt → Sudan → Congo (DRC) → Rwanda.Among them, Uganda, Kenya and Eritrea have the bigger pressure because of the pressure of population and economy.(2) from 1990 to 2014, the national state index in descending order:Egypt → Eritrea → Sudan → Rwanda → Uganda → Tanzania → Burundi → Kenya → Ethiopia → Congo (DRC).Among them, Egypt, Eritrea and Sudan have the better state due to the increase of the rural water proportion and forest cover.(3) from 1990 to 2014, the national response index in descending order:Egypt → Sudan → Uganda → Kenya → Ethiopia → Rwanda → Eritrea → Tanzania → Congo (DRC) → Burundi.Among them, Egypt, Sudan and Uganda have the more positive response due to the increase of the number of articles in science and technology journals, coupled with the relevant government departments increasing investment in infrastructure.(4) from 1990 to 2014, the national ecological security composite index in descending order:Egypt → Sudan → Uganda → Eritrea → Kenya → Ethiopia → Rwanda → Tanzania → Burundi → Congo (DRC).Among them, Egypt, Sudan and Uganda have the bigger national ecological security composite index. Egypt has the lower pressure index and the state index and the response index are ranked first, so the national ecological security is the best overall situation. Sudan and Uganda have the lower pressure index, the higher state index and response index, so national ecological security is also better.(5) from 2005 to 2009, among the 47 counties of Kenya, Lamu bears the biggest pressure, Kisii has the least pressure; Wajir's ecological security state is worst, Laikipia's ecological security state is the best; Mandera's response is the worst, Nairobi's response is the best; Wajir's ecological security is the worst, Nairobi's ecological security is the best. In the eastern part of Kenya, the pressure is strong, the status and the response are poor. However, In the northwest and southwest, the pressure is small, the state and the response is good. The water and heat conditions are better in the west than in the east. Education, social services, social infrastructure and protected areas are also concentrated in the west and south. The geographical position and economic development are closely related, which affects the ecological security of Kenya.

In the context of this study, although the ecological security situation of countries other than Sudan continues to develop towards a better situation, the state's ecological security situation fluctuates greatly and the majorityof the country's ecological security Composite index under the safer state are only slightly higher than the critical safety ceiling, and the national ecological security situation is not optimistic. The total index of national ecological security calculated in this paper reflects the ecological security status of each country  to a certain degree, and has a certain guiding effect on the comprehensive understanding of the national ecological security situation and can be used as a reference for national ecological security policy measures.

URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/221486
Collection生命科学学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
杨玉萍. 非洲尼罗河流域国家的生态安全评价[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2017.
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