| 生态系统风险评价与管理决策模型及其应用研究 |
| Alternative Title | The Models of Assessment and Directorial Decision-Making on Ecological System Risk and Its Applications
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| 张彦宇 |
| Thesis Advisor | 李自珍
|
| 2005-05-22
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| Degree Grantor | 兰州大学
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| Place of Conferral | 兰州
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| Degree Name | 硕士
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| Keyword | 生态系统风险分析
风险决策
可持续发展
数学模型
风险评价
|
| Abstract | 生态风险分析属于数学风险论和生态学相交叉的新兴边缘学科。它旨在利用风险评价与决策的理论与方法，根据生态系统的机理与机制，对生态系统特别是脆弱生态系统中潜在的风险进行了分析、评价，并给出科学的管理决策方案。积极开展生态风险分析的研究对于生态系统的恢复和可持续发展都具有重要的现实意义。
本文对生态风险评价方法和管理决策模型作了较系统的论述，在先前
研究的基础上进行了方法创新和改进，得到如下结论：
1. 提出了生态系统风险评价的模糊数学模型；并以中国科学院沙坡头沙漠试验研究站的人工固沙植物为对象，根据生态系统风险评价的模糊数学模型进行了实例计算。计算结果与以前的工作结论相吻合，验证了模型的合理性；
2. 根据国际上新兴起的虚拟水概念，结合多目标非线性决策模型，提出了虚拟水决策模型；
3. 改进了草原放牧系统最优决策模型，提出存在周期制约作用的草原放牧系统管理的最优决策模型；并以祁连山东段的山间荒漠草原为研究对象，根据存在周期制约作用的草原放牧系统管理的最优决策模型进行了实例计算。 |
| Other Abstract | Ecological risk analysis belongs to the new areas and develop cross-disciplinary science,
incorporating the theory of mathematical risk and ecology. It mainly aims to analyzing,
assessing the potential risk in fragile ecosystem and providing the rational schemes
of directorial decision-making through the general theories and approaches to risk assessment
and policy decision in terms of the ecosystem mechanisms. It is of practical significance
for the restoration and sustainable development of ecosystem to launch positively
the studies on ecological risk.
In the paper, the approaches to ecological risk assessment and the models of directorial
decision-making are discussed. Furthermore, in which some new methods and
improvements are brought forth comparing with the former researches on ecological risk.
The main conclusions are as following:
1. Presenting the fuzzy mathematical models for assessing the ecosystem risk; And
taking the artificial sand-fixing vegetation in Shapotou desert research and experiment
station, CAS, as the object, the practical analysis by using the fuzzy mathematical
model are made, of which the results gear well to those in previous works and indicate
the rationality of model;
2. Based on the concept of unreal water that is developing in inter-nation, putting
forward to the decision-making model of unreal water combining the multi-objective
nonlinear decision model;
3. Improving the optimal decision-making model of graze-pasture system and also
providing the new optimal decision-making model with periodical restriction in the
system; According to the model with periodical restriction, the concrete example that
is on the background of the desert steppe among the hills of eastern Mount. Qilian is analyzed. |
| URL | 查看原文
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| Language | 中文
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| Document Type | 学位论文
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| Identifier | https://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/224727
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| Collection | 数学与统计学院
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Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714 |
张彦宇. 生态系统风险评价与管理决策模型及其应用研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2005.
|
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