气象要素的信息特征及其在汛期降水预测中的应用

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	气象要素的信息特征及其在汛期降水预测中的应用
Alternative Title	Information Characteristics of Meteorological Elements and Its Application to Precipitation Forecast in Rainy Season
	冯爱霞
Thesis Advisor	封国林 ; 丑纪范
	2012-05-30
Degree Grantor	兰州大学
Place of Conferral	兰州
Degree Name	博士
Keyword	信息熵高度场温度场信息通道海气相互作用空间主模态降水预测
Abstract	针对气象要素场信息特征分析的欠缺以及历史资料蕴含动力模式所需信息须深入探讨，运用信息论中的信息熵、信息传输理论对温度场和高度场资料进行了不同时空尺度的静、动态信息特征分析。结合相空间非线性预测方法、复杂网络、动力-统计定量化预测方法，对北半球高度场进行了预测精度分析，提取了海气系统双层空间关联结构信息，并将空间关联信息化为因子从而对汛期降水模式误差进行订正。在得出信息熵在气象资料中的适用方法及条件的基础上，主要给出了气象要素场时间信息熵的静态特征以及动态信息损失率特征，得到了空间非线性关联结构信息，由此把空间结构信息初步应用到汛期降水中。主要得到以下结果和结论：样本估计法较适合分析气象时间序列的信息熵；温度场和高度场信息熵纬向分布明显，在垂直方向上其信息熵以300hPa左右为轴呈准对称分布；两场信息熵季节变化和年代际变化显著；在动态传输上，太平洋和大西洋上空大气的信息经向损失率较小为“信息传输通道”；空间信息特征表现为“海气相互作用空间主模态”，用“印太齿轮耦合模型”解释了该模态的形成机理，并将主模态量化为“三维海气相互作用指数”，订正了长江中下游地区汛期降水模式误差，效果显著。
Other Abstract	Less work has been done to analyze the information characteristics of the meteorological element fields, and there are some initial and boundary information in the historical data which is lacking in the climate or weather dynamical model. So the information entropy and the information transport principle from information theory are employed to analyze the static and dynamical information characteristics of height and temperature fields. Combination other methods, such as nonlinear prediction method, complex networks, dynamical-statistic objective forecast method, the predict accuracy of the Northern Hemisphere height field is studied, the air-sea bilayer correlation pattern is extracted, and the pattern is quantified to apply to the model error correction of precipitation forecast in the rainy season. The better method to calculate the entropy in meteorological element field is carried out. The detail characteristics of the static and dynamic information in the meteorological field are described. The nonlinear spatial structure of the air-sea interactions is illustrated. It is helpful to improve the precipitation forecast in rainy season.
URL	查看原文
Language	中文
Document Type	学位论文
Identifier	https://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/224815
Collection	数学与统计学院
Recommended Citation GB/T 7714	冯爱霞. 气象要素的信息特征及其在汛期降水预测中的应用[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2012.

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