兰州大学机构库 >数学与统计学院
能值生态足迹的灰色预测模型及应用研究
Alternative TitleGrey Theory Model of Emergy Ecological Footprint and its Application
黄凤华
Thesis Advisor李维德
2010-05-29
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword能值生态足迹 灰色关联度 GM(1,1)模型 可持续发展 宁夏
Abstract本论文将生态足迹模型、能值理论和灰色系统有关理论相结合,将灰色预测模型和灰色关联分析应用于可持续发展的研究中。灰色预测模型用来预测某一地区未来几年的环境发展状况,灰关联度用来分析生态足迹的主要影响因素。对赵晟等人提出的能值生态足迹模型进行了改进,得出更能反映当地环境压力状况的计算模型。利用改进的模型计算了宁夏1998-2007年的能值生态足迹和生态承载力。结果表明,宁夏的人均能值生态足迹除个别年份略有下降外,其它年份均有增长且增幅较大, 从1998年的5.4091hm2<上标!>增长到2007年的10.3564 hm2<上标!>;人均生态承载力逐年下降,从1998年的1.0890 hm2<上标!>下降到2007年的0.9575 hm2<上标!>;人均需求与人均供给之间的差距从1998年的4.3201 hm2<上标!>增长到2007年的9.3989 hm2<上标!>。对2003年到2007年5年间的能值生态足迹的主要影响因素的发展状况的灰关联分析结果表明,能源足迹的增长是宁夏能值生态足迹快速增长的主要因素,人类对畜产品的消费次之,再次是水及水产品,人类对农产品的消费对能值生态足迹的总体影响最小。在本文的最后利用2003-2007年的数据建立了GM(1,1)模型,并预测了2008-2015年的人均能值生态足迹和生态承载力,预测结果表明宁夏的人类需求和自然供给能力的差距继续增大,不可持续性加剧。
Other AbstractThis thesis combines ecological footprint, emergy analysis with grey system theory. Grey prediction model and grey relational analysis have been used into the study of sustainable development. Grey prediction model is used to predict the environment develop trend of an area in the following years. Grey relational degree is used to analysis the main influence factor of ecological footprint. In this thesis, the emergy ecological footprint proposed by Zhao Sheng is modified in order to obtain a new calculation model which can give a more realistic picture of the environment situation. Using this new model, the emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia is calculated from 1998 to 2007. The results show that the per capita emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia increases with years from 5.4091 hm2<上标!>in 1998 to 10.3564 hm2<上标!> in 2007, the per capita emergy ecological capacity decreases with years from 1.0890 hm2<上标!> in 1998 to 0.9575 hm2<上标!> in 2007. The ecological deficit increases with years from 4.3201 hm2<上标!>in 1998 to 9.3989 hm2<上标!>in 2007.The grey relational analysis results of emergy ecological footprint from the year 2003 to 2007 show that the increase of energy footprint is the main reason which leads to the largely increase of emergy ecological footprint of Ningxia. The second reason is the consume of animal products, and the third reason is the consume of water and water products. The consume of the agricultural products is the last one.Finally, the GM(1,1)model is established using the datas from the year 2003 to 2007, and the following 8 years's emergy ecological footprint and emergy ecological capacity of Ningxia is predicted. The predict result shows that the ecological deficit keeps on increasing, the unsustainable situation will be aggravated.
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/224837
Collection数学与统计学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
黄凤华. 能值生态足迹的灰色预测模型及应用研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2010.
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