基于动态故障树的不可修系统可靠性分析 Alternative Title Reliability Analysis of Non Repairable System Based on Dynamic Fault Tree 董娅妮 Thesis Advisor 焦桂梅 2016-05-15 Degree Grantor 兰州大学 Place of Conferral 兰州 Degree Name 硕士 Keyword 可靠性 故障树 二元决策图 蒙特卡洛 马尔科夫链 Abstract 随着时代的发展和科技的进步，以及大型复杂系统的建立，可靠性和安全性问题越来越受到人们的重视，其研究对于设备的优化和性能改进具有重要的现实意义。传统故障树分析方法对许多现实中存在序列和功能相关失效行为的系统无法进行建模，而动态故障树能够对具有随机故障行为的动态系统进行建模。因此，文章基于动态故障树方法对不可修复杂系统的可靠究。动态故障树对序列相关故障的系统可靠性建模是强有力的，但它们的定量分析是非常麻烦的，现有的状态空间法、仿真方法和组合的方法(主要包括I/E和SDP方法)，要么是遭受“组合爆炸”问题和受限于部件特定的寿命分布，要么是当结果要求有较高的精度时，往往需要较长的计算时间。另外，用动态故障树方法对大型复杂系统的可靠性进行建模时计算量大，计算顶事件失效概率时也常会出现NP难问题。针对求解复杂系统可靠性现有方法的缺陷，文章提出了基于BDD-ISBDD的混合方法对不可修动态系统可靠性进行建模，首先用线性搜索算法将动态故障树分解为若干个独立的静态子树和动态子树，然后分别介绍了基于BDD的静态子树评估方法和基于Markov、ISBDD、Monte-Carlo等的动态子树评估方法，综合各子树的分析结果得到整个系统的可靠性。文章最后用一个案例研究表明提出方法的优越性，首先提出的方法对系统的结构和部件的寿命分布没有任何限制，其次，该方法能够得到系统可靠性的精确解，特别是在对大型复杂系统可靠性建模时，既减少了存储的空间，也提高了计算的效率。 Other Abstract With the development of the times and the progress of science and technology, and the establishment of large-scale complex systems, reliability and safety issues have been paid more and more attention by people, its research has important practical significance for the optimization of equipment and the improvement of performance. many real-world systems exist sequences and functionally related failure behavior, traditional fault tree analysis method can not model the above fault behavior, dynamic fault tree can model the dynamic system with random failure behavior. Therefore, this paper based on the dynamic fault tree method to study the reliability of non repairable complex system.Dynamic fault tree model is robust to the system reliability modeling of sequence related faults, But their quantitative analysis is very cumbersome, existing state-space method, simulation methods and the method of combination (mainly include I/E and SDP method), these methods either suffer from the "combinatorial explosion" problem and are subject to a component specific lifetime distribution, either when the result is required to have a higher precision, it often takes a long time to calculate. In addition, using dynamic fault tree method for the reliability of the large complex system modeling, its large amount of computation, and calculation of the failure probability of the top event will often appear NP difficult problem. In view of the shortcomings of the existing methods for solving the complex system reliability, in this paper, a hybrid method of BDD-ISBDD is proposed to model the reliability of non repairable dynamic systems, firstly, we use linear search algorithm to dynamic fault tree is decomposed into several independent static sub-trees and dynamic sub-tree, then respectively introduces static sub-tree evaluation method based on BDD, and based on Markov, Monte-Carlo, ISBDD dynamic sub-tree evaluation method, etc, the comprehensive analysis results of each sub-tree to get the reliability of the whole system. At the end of this paper, a case study is presented to show the application and advantages of the proposed method, firstly, the method has no limitation on the structure of the system and the lifetime distribution of the components, in addition, this method can get the accurate solution of system reliability, Especially in the large scale complex system reliability modeling, both reduce the storage space, but also improve the efficiency of the calculation. URL 查看原文 Language 中文 Document Type 学位论文 Identifier https://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/225187 Collection 数学与统计学院 Recommended CitationGB/T 7714 董娅妮. 基于动态故障树的不可修系统可靠性分析[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2016.
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