兰州大学机构库 >数学与统计学院
基于变分模态分解的兰州市PM2.5和 PM10的预测研究
Alternative TitleA Case Study on the Prediction of PM2.5 and PM10 in Lanzhou Based on Variational Mode Decomposition
陈思帆
Thesis Advisor李周平
2018-04-09
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword大气污染预测 变分模态分解 BP神经网络 参数优化
Abstract

大气是整个人类在生存成长过程中赖以为生的环境元素之一. 然而, 随着现代工业在二十世纪的飞速发展, 以及世界人口的急剧增长, 人们对煤炭和石油的消耗越来越大, 而这些能源燃料在燃烧的过程中, 产生了大量的化学物质. 其中, 以废气和烟尘等形式排放到大气中的污染物数量与日俱增, 逐渐超过了大气环境所能承载的容量, 对人们的生活生产和身体健康等方面产生了严重的影响.

本文探讨了一种基于变分模态分解 (variational mode decomposition, VMD) 的新型混合预测模型. 我们以甘肃省兰州市为例, 收集了2016年全年366天的大气污染数据以及气象数据, 并应用本文所提模型分别对污染指数PM2.5和PM10进行了建模分析及预测. 首先, 本文使用VMD分解技术在数据预处理阶段用于分解和重构数据. 其次, 在优化BP神经网络的权值和阈值时, 本文选取了一种基于自适应粒子群算法的蚁群算法. 最后, 对预测结果进行了多种方式的比较分析. 实验结果显示本文所提出的混合预测模型相比于其他单一或组合模型, 精度较高, 基本拟合了大气颗粒物浓度变化的趋势和波动.

Other Abstract

The atmosphere is one of the essential elements of human activities. However, the rapid development of modern industry and the growth of human population caused a large amount of burning of coal and oil fuel, which produced a lot of chemical waste through air exhaust, soot and many other forms. All these emissions to the atmosphere have exceeded the capacity of the atmospheric environment. The pollution has very negative impacts to our everyday life and our own health.

In this thesis, a novel hybrid model based on variational mode decomposition(VMD) was developed for forcasting and analysis. The historical data of atmospheric PM2.5 and PM10 in 2016 in Lanzhou, Gansu Province were collected for analysis and prediction. The VMD was initially used in the preprocessing stage to reconstruct data. Besides, we used hybrid model for searching the optimal weight and threshold of the back propagation neural networks. Numerical results indicate that the developed hybrid model has higher accuracy on predicting PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations when compared to other previously reported individual models and traditional models.

URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/225194
Collection数学与统计学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
陈思帆. 基于变分模态分解的兰州市PM2.5和 PM10的预测研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2018.
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