兰州大学机构库 >数学与统计学院
甘肃省税收与经济增长的相关分析
Alternative TitleCorrelation Analysis of Tax Revenue and Economic Growth in Gansu Province
武菲
Thesis Advisor牛明飞
2015-05-23
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Keyword国税收入 ECM 协整分析 逐步回归
Abstract随着经济的发展,税收发挥出越来越突出的调节作用.税收是国家财政收入的重要构成,同时又作为一种主要工具被政府用来进行宏观调控,又作为实现公平与效率的有效手段,税收与经济之间存在着相互影响的关系,因此税收收入的预测及分析,税收收入与经济指标之间的相关关系,对制定合理的税收计划具有十分重要的意义. 本篇论文通过阅读相关的一些国内外文献,分别运用传统方法、协整分析、ECM、BP神经网络、逐步回归等计量方法建立模型.以甘肃省国税收入和多个经济指标为例,用多种方法建立模型,对我省国税收入进行预测,分析了国税收入与经济指标之间的相关关系.得到的结果表明,甘肃省GDP与国税收入之间有很明显的相关关系存在,对我省国税收入影响比较大的经济指标有GDP、财政支出和最终消费额.最后,对我省的税收制度及经济发展提出了一些相关建议.
Other AbstractAlong with the development of the economy, tax plays a more and more role. Tax is an important constitute of the national finance, as the same time, as one of the main tools is used to carrying out macroeconomic regulation and controlling by the government, and as an effective means to realize fairness and efficiency, there is interaction between tax and economic relations, so the prediction of tax revenue and the analysis of the relationship between tax revenue and economic indicators, the reasonable tax planning is great significant. Through reading some related literature about China and abroad, respectively, using the traditional method to establish models, such as the co-integration analysis, the ECM, BP neural network and stepwise regression metering method. Based on more national tax revenue and economic indicators in Gansu province, then we use a variety of methods to model and forecast in our province national tax income, analyzes the relationship between national tax revenue and economic indicators. Results show that the GDP and national tax income in Gansu province have obvious correlation, and more influence of national tax revenue in our province economic indicators are GDP, fiscal expenditure and consumption. Finally, some relevant suggestions are gave to the tax system in our province and economic development.
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/225392
Collection数学与统计学院
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
武菲. 甘肃省税收与经济增长的相关分析[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2015.
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