|Alternative Title||the theory and method and its application in ecosystem
|Place of Conferral||兰州
|Abstract||生态风险分析（ecological risk analysis）属于数学风险论与生态学相交叉的新兴边缘学科。它旨在利用风险评价与决策的理论与方法，根据生态系统的机理与机制，对生态系统特别是脆弱生态系统中潜在的风险进行分析、评价，并据以给出科学的管理决策。目前，关于生态风险的研究才刚刚起步。积极开展生态风险分析的研究对于生态系统的恢复建设和区域可持续发展都具有重要的现实意义。
|Other Abstract||Ecological risk analysis belongs to the marginal science. It combines the mathematics risk theory with ecology. Its aim mainly lies in using the method and theory of risk assessment and decision, to assess the latent risk in ecosystem especially in fragile ecosystem, according to the characters and mechanism of ecosystem. Now, the study about ecological risk is just starting. Developing the study of ecosystem healthy risk actively has important realistic significance for ecosystem recovery construction and region sustainable development.
The author of this paper attempts to have the technology, theory and the advanced effective thought in financial engineering, applied into the specific ecosystem. This thought has run through the full text all along. In this paper, with the study backgrounds of financial market and ecosystem risk respectively, the author has discussed in detail the definition of risk, its connotation, as well as the mathematics model and method of risk assessment and decision, and has carried it out in certain case study respectively. Primary research results are:
I. It analysises the connotation of financial risk. A new and rational financial risk model has been established and carried out in really case study for Shanghai securities market. VaR is a kind of advanced financial risk management tool, which springs up in recent years. In the second chapter of this paper, its connotation, characteristic and the calculation method based on experience distribution are discussed.
II. Ecological risk analysis makes well use of the risk management and decision methods to assess and manage the ecological risk. There are not enough reference papers to be referred, most of which still concentrate in the field of toxicology. In fact, the ecological risk results from many factors, such as the natural factor, human activity and others. So, the decision and management of the ecological risk is a very popular problem. On the other hand, it is a subject that needs to be explored and extended continuously.
III. Ecosystem is a very complex system, which consists of natural factor, biological factor and social factor, so its ecological risk expose is very various. Considering all the ecological risk factors in order to make more reasonable assessment and decision for regional ecological risk, needs further effort and explore. In this paper, the author has considered the ecological risk assessment of single risk factor.
IV. Financial engineering is a n...|
石洪华. 风险决策的理论与方法及其在生态系统中的应用[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2003.
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