兰州大学机构库 >资源环境学院
基于 Holdridge 生命地带模型的我国南北过渡带潜在植被分布模拟
Alternative TitleSimulations of potential vegetation distribution based on Holdridge Life Zone model in North-South Transition Zone of China
高萌
Subtype硕士
Thesis Advisor靳立亚
2019-03-31
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name硕士
Degree Discipline自然地理学
Keyword南北过渡带 Holdridge 生命地带 气候变化 潜在植被分布
Abstract植被作为人类赖以生存的自然环境的重要组成部分,对人类的生存与发展极为重要。 我国南北过渡带既是一个气候敏感带也是一个生态脆弱区域,植被生态环境极容易受气候变化影响, 了解气候变化影响下潜在植被的分布变化能够为该区域生态恢复建设和生态资源保护等方面提供一定的科学依据,预测未来气候情景下潜在植被的分布也有助于该区域生态建设工作的开展。 本文基于 Holdridge生命地带模型,利用 1970 - 2016 年南北过渡带内 92 个气象站点的月均温、月降水量数据和 DEM 数据对南北过渡带年代际时间尺度下潜在植被变化进行分析讨论,同时使用 BCC_CSM_1.1 模式驱动下的 2070s 南北过渡带 4 个 RCPs 气候情景下的月最低气温、月最高气温和月平均降水量数据,对 2070s 南北过渡带潜在植被分布进行模拟计算预测,得出以下主要结论:
(1)对南北过渡带 47 年的年均生物温度、年降水量和可能蒸散率进行统计,得到 1970 - 2016 年区域三个气候指标的变化曲线及线性趋势。近 50 年年均生物温度呈波动上升趋势,上升幅度为 0.2526°C /10a,降水量呈现微弱的下降趋势,年降水变化的倾向率为-3.4mm/10a,可能蒸散率表现出不显著的上升趋势,倾向率为 0.028/10a, 近 50 年南北过渡带的气候变化表现出了暖干化趋势。通过 SPSS软件和 ArcGIS 软件计算得到各年代际生物温度、降水量和可能蒸散率的空间分布图,生物温度空间分布主要呈现出由东向西逐渐降低和由南向北逐渐降低的两种趋势,降水量空间分布图显示出降水由南向北、由沿海向内陆逐渐减少的趋势,可能蒸散率南部低于北部,平原高于山地,其中青藏高原是一个低蒸散率集中地区,而黄土高原西北部是一个高蒸散率集中区域。
(2)基于 Holdridge 生命地带模型,在 ArcGIS 和 matlab 软件计算下得到南北过渡带各年代际潜在植被分布图,对其进行统计分析发现:近 50 年南北过渡带出现了 21 种生命地带植被类型, 暖温带干旱森林、暖温带湿润森林、冷温带草原、冷温带湿润森林和北方潮湿森林是南北过渡带主要分布的生命地带类型,Kappa 检验精度为 0.508。各年代际生命地带类型的面积变化中,1980s 和 1970s、1990s 相比,变化幅度最大的是暖温带干旱森林和暖温带湿润森林,新增的暖温带湿润森林绝大部分是由暖温带干旱森林转换而来,这与 80 年代降水量的增加有关,而在 1980s 之后,暖温带湿润森林又在后两个年代急剧减少,减少的面积主要转变为暖温带干旱森林、亚热带湿润森林和亚热带干旱森林。亚热带干旱森林和亚热带湿润森林在 1990s 和 2000s 的面积持续增长,是南北过渡带部分地区潜在植被对气候暖干化的主要响应。 利用 ArcGIS 计算各年代际生命地带类型的平均中心, 发现亚热带湿润森林、暖温带有刺草原和冷温带湿润森林的偏移幅度较大,北方干旱有刺灌丛、北方潮湿森林和冷温带有刺灌丛的偏移幅度较小, 除冷温带有刺灌丛、暖温带有刺草原和暖温带湿润森林外,其他生命地带类型的平均中心均往北偏移了, 位于南北过渡带西北处的几类生命地带类型的迁移幅度小于南北过渡带东南处的生命地带类型,位于高原地形的生命地带类型比位于山地、
平原地形的生命地带类型偏移幅度小。
(3) 基于 Holdridge 生命地带模型预测 2070s 在 4 个典型浓度 RCPs 情景下南北过渡带潜在植被分布变化, 2070s 南北过渡带在未来气候变化条件下共出现了 17 种生命地带类型,与 2010s 相比, 高山荒漠、 亚高山干苔原、亚高山湿润苔原、北方荒漠以及北方干旱有刺灌丛这 5 种生命地带类型消失了,新出现了北方雨林、暖温带荒漠灌丛和亚热带有刺疏林 3 种生命地带植被。暖温带干旱森林、亚热带湿润森林、亚热带干旱森林、冷温带草原等类型是 2070s 南北过渡带的主要生命地带类型。从各类生命地带类型的面积变化幅度来看, RCP 排放浓度越高, 2070s 南北过渡带生命地带植被分布格局变化幅度越大,且 RCP 排放浓度越高,暖温带干旱森林、暖温带湿润森林和冷温带草原的减少越多,亚热带干旱森林和亚热带湿润森林的面积增加越多。在高排放情景(RCP6.0、 RCP8.5)下,亚热带森林植被面积逐渐扩大超过暖温带森林植被,成为南北过渡带的优势植被,而这些新增的亚热带植被绝大部分是由暖温带森林受温度升高的影响转变而成的。从 RCPs 情景下 2070s 生命地带类型平均中心的偏移趋势来看,亚热带干旱森林、暖温带有刺草原、冷温带草原和北方湿润森林的偏移幅度比其他生命地带类型的偏移幅度大,且亚热带干旱森林的偏移幅度最大,冷温带有刺灌丛的偏移幅度最小, 偏移距离随着 RCP 排放浓度的增大而增大, 2070s 各生命地带类型的平均中心与 2010s 相比大多数都向北偏移了。
Other AbstractVegetation as an important part of the natural environment for human survival is vital to human survival and social development. The north-south transition zone in china is not only a climate sensitive zone but also an ecological fragile area, where the vegetation ecological environment is extremely easily affected by climate change. Therefore, understanding the distribution change of potential vegetation under the influence of climate change could provide certain scientific basis for the construction of the zonal ecology restoration and ecological resources protection, and predicting the distribution of potential vegetation under future climate scenarios can also contribute to the ecological construction in this region. Based on the monthly mean temperature and precipitation data of 92 meteorological stations in China and DEM(Digital Elevation Model)data during 1970-2016, we simulated and analysed the vegetation changes in inter-decadal time scale and make a projection of the life zone’s distribution patterns under four RCPs scenarios in 2070s based on BCC_CSM1.1 climate model in north-south transition zone of China by using Holdridge Life Zone model . The results showed that:
 (1) In the past 47 years during 1970-2016, biological temperature fluctuated and increased, with 0.2526°C/10a amplitude, precipitation presented a weak downward trend, the tendency of annual precipitation change rate was 3.4 mm / 10a, potential evapotranspiration ratio showed not significant upward trend, with tendency rate of 0.028/10a. Climate change tended to be a slight warming-drying status. The space distribution of decadal biological temperature, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration ratio calculated by SPSS and ArcGIS software. The biological temperature distribution mainly decreased from the east to the west gradually and gradually reduce from the south to the north, the spatial distribution of precipitation showed that the precipitation gradually decreased from the south to the north and from the coast to the inland. The potential evapotranspiration ratio in the south was lower than in the north, in plain was higher than in mountains, therein Tibetan plateau was a low transpiration rate inhabited areas, and northwestern loess plateau was a high rate of evaporation concentration area.
(2)Based on the Holdridge Life Zone model we analysed the interdecadal potential vegetation distribution calculated by ArcGIS and Matlab in the north-south transition zone and find that: In the past 50 years there are 21 life zone vegetation types in the north-south transition zone, and warm temperate dry forest, warm temperate moist forest, cool temperate steppe, cool temperate moist forest and boreal wet forest are the mainly distributed field types in the north-south transition zone. In the change of area of the each zone types, the biggest change were warm temperate dry forest and warm temperate moist forests, compared to the 1980s and 1970s, 1990s, the new warm temperate moist forest for the most part, was by warm temperate arid forest transformation, which is associated with an increased precipitation in the 1980s. However, after the 1980s, the warm temperate moist forest decreased sharply in the latter two decades, and the reduced area was mainly transformed into warm temperate dry forest, subtropical mois forest and subtropical dry forest. The area of subtropical dry forest and subtropical moist forest continued to increase in the 1990s and 2000s, which were the main response of vegetation in parts of the north-south transition zone to the warming and drying climate. In terms of the average center of each decadal life zone type calculated using ArcGIS, the subtropical moist forest, warm temperate thorn steppe woodland and cool temperate moist forest migrated much, boreal dry scrub, boreal wet forest and cool temperate desert scrub tilted little, in addition, the average center of all life zone type moved to the north except cool temperate desert scrub, warm temperate thorn steppe woodland and warm temperate moist fores, meanwhile, several life zone types located in the northwest of the north-south transition zone migrated less than that in southeast area, the life zone type in plateau had a smaller migration range than that in mountain and plain.
    (3)The potential vegetation distribution changes in 2070s in the north-south transition zone predicted under four RCPs scenarios based on the Holdridge Life Zone model showed that: There are 17 vegetation types in the north-south transition zone in 2070s, and alpine desert, subalpine dry tundra, subalpine moist tundra, boreal desert and boreal dry scrub these five life zone types disappeared compared with 2010s, and there are three kinds of life zone vegetation, boreal rainforest, warm temperate desert scrub zone and subtropical thorn steppe woodland came along. The warm temperate dry forest, subtropical moist forests, subtropical arid forests, and cool temperate steppe are the mainly distributed field types in the north-south transition zone in 2070s. In terms of the area change amplitude of all kinds of life zone types, the higher RCP discharge, the greater range of vegetation distribution pattern change in the north-south transition zone in 2070s. Moreover, the higher the RCP emission concentration is, the more the warm temperate dry forest, warm temperate moist forest and cool temperate steppe are reduced, and the more the area of subtropical dry forest and subtropical moist forest are increased under the high emission scenario (RCP6.0, RCP8.5), the subtropical forest vegetation area gradually expanded and overpass the warm temperate forest vegetation, which would become the dominant vegetation in the north-south transition zone, therein the newly added subtropical forest vegetation most are transformed from the warm temperate forest due to the increase in temperature. We can infer from the deviation trend of the average center of the life zone type in the 2070s under the RCPs scenario that: The migration ranges of subtropical dry forest, warm temperate thorn steppe woodland, cool temperate steppe and boreal wet forest are larger than those of other life zone types, and therein the migration range of subtropical dry forest is the largest and that of cool temperate desert shrub is the smallest. The deviation distance increases with the increase of RCP emission concentration. The average center in the 2070s life zone types are mostly shift northward compared with the 2010s.
Pages74
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/344341
Collection资源环境学院
Affiliation
资源环境学院
First Author AffilicationCollege of Earth Environmental Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
高萌. 基于 Holdridge 生命地带模型的我国南北过渡带潜在植被分布模拟[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2019.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Altmetrics Score
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[高萌]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[高萌]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[高萌]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
No comment.
Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.