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Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming
Guo, Donglin1,2; Sun, Jianqi1; Li, Huixin2; Zhang, Tingjun3; Romanovsky, Vladimir E.4
2020-08
Source PublicationEnvironmental Research Letters   Impact Factor & Quartile Of Published Year  The Latest Impact Factor & Quartile
ISSN1748-9326
Volume15Issue:8
page numbers9
AbstractGiven the current confirmed permafrost degradation and its considerable impacts on ecosystems, water resources, infrastructure and climate, there is great interest in understanding the causes of permafrost degradation. Using the surface frost index (SFI) model and multimodel data from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), this study, for the first time, investigates external anthropogenic and natural forcing impacts on historical (1921-2005) near-surface permafrost change in the Northern Hemisphere. The results show that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing produces a significant decrease in the area of near-surface permafrost distribution at a rate of 0.46 x 10(6)km(2)decade(-1), similar to observations and the historical simulation (ALL). Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing yields an increase in near-surface permafrost distribution area at a rate of 0.25 x 10(6)km(2)decade(-1). Under natural (NAT) forcing, there is a weak trend and distinct decadal variability in near-surface permafrost area. The effects of ALL and GHG forcings are detectable in the observed change in historical near-surface permafrost area, but the effects of NAT and AA forcings are not detected using the optimal fingerprint methods. This indicates that the observed near-surface permafrost degradation can be largely attributed to GHG-induced warming, which has decreased the near-surface permafrost area in the Northern Hemisphere by approximately 0. 21 x 10(6)km(2)decade(-1)on average over the study period, according to the attribution analysis.
KeywordGreenhouse gases Water resourcesAnthropogenic aerosols Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Decadal variability Greenhouse gas (GHG) Historical simulation Northern Hemispheres Permafrost degradation Permafrost distribution
PublisherIOP Publishing Ltd
DOI10.1088/1748-9326/ab926f
Indexed BySCIE ; EI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41991281][41775076] ; Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research (STEP) program[2019QZKK0102] ; Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS[2018103] ; National Key R&D Program of China[2016YFA0600704]
WOS Research AreaEnvironmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectEnvironmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000561563700001
PublisherIOP PUBLISHING LTD
EI Accession Number20203809209210
EI KeywordsPermafrost
EI Classification Number444 Water Resources ; 451.1 Air Pollution Sources
Original Document TypeArticle
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/440935
Collection兰州大学
Corresponding AuthorGuo, Donglin
Affiliation
1.Chinese Acad Sci, Nansen Zhu Int Res Ctr, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteoro, Minist Educ, Key Lab Meteorol Disaster, Nanjing, Peoples R China
3.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Minist Educ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Lanzhou, Peoples R China
4.Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Geophys Inst, Fairbanks, AK 99775 USA
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Guo, Donglin,Sun, Jianqi,Li, Huixin,et al. Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming[J]. Environmental Research Letters,2020,15(8).
APA Guo, Donglin,Sun, Jianqi,Li, Huixin,Zhang, Tingjun,&Romanovsky, Vladimir E..(2020).Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming.Environmental Research Letters,15(8).
MLA Guo, Donglin,et al."Attribution of historical near-surface permafrost degradation to anthropogenic greenhouse gas warming".Environmental Research Letters 15.8(2020).
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