兰州大学机构库
Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess"
Liu, Feng1; Li, Xin2,3; Zhu, GF(朱高峰)4
2020-08-15
Source PublicationScience Bulletin   Impact Factor & Quartile Of Published Year  The Latest Impact Factor & Quartile
ISSN2095-9273
EISSN2095-9281
Volume65Issue:15Pages:1297-1305
page numbers9
AbstractTraditional compartmental models such as SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) assume that the epidemic transmits in a homogeneous population, but the real contact patterns in epidemics are heterogeneous. Employing a more realistic model that considers heterogeneous contact is consequently necessary. Here, we use a contact network to reconstruct unprotected, protected contact, and airborne spread to simulate the two-stages outbreak of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) on the "Diamond Princess" cruise ship. We employ Bayesian inference and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to estimate the model parameters and quantify the uncertainties by the ensemble simulation technique. During the early epidemic with intensive social contacts, the results reveal that the average transmissibility t was 0.026 and the basic reproductive number R-0 was 6.94, triple that in the WHO report, indicating that all people would be infected in one month. The t and R-0 decreased to 0.0007 and 0.2 when quarantine was implemented. The reconstruction suggests that diluting the airborne virus concentration in closed settings is useful in addition to isolation, and high-risk susceptible should follow rigorous prevention measures in case exposed. This study can provide useful implications for control and prevention measures for the other cruise ships and closed settings. (C) 2020 Science China Press. Published by Elsevier B.V. and Science China Press. All rights reserved.
KeywordContact network model Small-world Chain-binomial model Airborne spread Transmissibility The basic reproductive number R-0
PublisherELSEVIER
DOI10.1016/j.scib.2020.04.043
Indexed BySCIE
Language英语
Funding ProjectStrategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19070104] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41801270] ; 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences[XXH13505-06] ; Foundation for Excellent Youth Scholars of Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences[Y851D41]
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000563052800011
PublisherELSEVIER
Original Document TypeArticle
PMID 32373394
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/441697
Collection兰州大学
资源环境学院
Corresponding AuthorLi, Xin
Affiliation
1.Chinese Acad Sci, Northwest Inst Ecoenvironm & Resources, Key Lab Remote Sensing Gansu Prov, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Res, Natl Tibetan Plateau Data Ctr, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Excellence Tibetan Plateau Earth Sci, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China
4.Lanzhou Univ, Minist Educ, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Liu, Feng,Li, Xin,Zhu, Gaofeng. Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess"[J]. Science Bulletin,2020,65(15):1297-1305.
APA Liu, Feng,Li, Xin,&Zhu, Gaofeng.(2020).Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess".Science Bulletin,65(15),1297-1305.
MLA Liu, Feng,et al."Using the contact network model and Metropolis-Hastings sampling to reconstruct the COVID-19 spread on the "Diamond Princess"".Science Bulletin 65.15(2020):1297-1305.
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