兰州大学机构库 >大气科学学院
东北地区PM2.5和O3的健康效应研究
Alternative TitleHealth effects of PM2.5 and O3 in Northeast China
赵宇瀚
Subtype学士
Thesis Advisor马玉霞
2021-05-20
Degree Grantor兰州大学
Place of Conferral兰州
Degree Name理学学士
Degree Discipline大气科学
KeywordPM2.5 O3 呼吸系统疾病 气温 健康风险
Abstract近年来,大气污染日趋严重。流行病学研究证实,大气污染物对人群健康的危害严重,尤其使疾病的发病和死亡风险增加。而气象因素中,气温是与人体接触最敏感的气象要素之一,其变化与呼吸系统疾病和死亡率密切相关。因此,研究不同气温条件下大气污染物对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响有一定科学和现实意义。本文利用我国东北地区典型城市沈阳2014-2016年逐日气象资料、污染物浓度和呼吸系统疾病死亡人数资料,利用用百分位法对日平均气温分成不同等级,用广义相加模型(Generalized additive model, GAM)研究PM2.5和O3在不同温度条件下对呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的影响。建模时采用污染物浓度每增加1个IQR(四分位数)的疾病相对危险度(Relative Risk, RR),模型中考虑了污染物0-7天单天滞后(lag0-lag7)和累计滞后(lag01-lag07)效应以及性别的影响,并充分考虑了节假日效应、星期几效应等因素,比较不同人群受污染影响的差异。主要研究结果如下: (1)PM2.5和O3与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的暴露反应关系呈线性分布,即随着污染物浓度增加,呼吸系统疾病死亡风险线性增加。气态污染物O3对呼吸系统死亡的影响风险比细颗粒物PM2.5的影响大。对不同性别人群而言,女性受PM2.5和O3影响的相对危险度普遍高于男性。 (2)PM2.5对总人群的影响有1-2天和6天滞后影响,在滞后第一天相对危险度最大,RR值为1.016(95%CI:0.997, 1.035)。对男性的影响在滞后第二天(lag2)最大,RR值为1.037(95%CI:0.962, 1.117);女性在滞后第一天相对危险度最大,RR值为1.018(95%CI:0.990, 1.047)。O3对总人群和男性呼吸系统死亡的健康风险在第一天最大,RR值分别为1.053(95%CI:0.995,1.114)和 1.037(95%CI:0.962,1.117);对女性的影响有1-3天的滞后,健康风险在第二天最大,RR值为1.067(95%CI:0.981,1.161)。累积滞后影响中,PM2.5累计滞后2天(lag02)相对危险度最大,RR值为1.015;O3累计滞后3天(lag03)相对危险度最大,RR值为1.103。大气中PM2.5和O3浓度每增加一个IQR(34ug/m3和52ug/m3),全人群呼吸系统疾病死亡人数分别增加1.57%和10.28%。 (3)在多污染物模型中,PM2.5模型中引入其他污染物后,对全人群和女性人群死亡人数影响显著增加,RR值增大0.29%和0.78%。O3的污染模型中引入其他污染物后,全人群、男性和女性的呼吸系统疾病死亡人数风险均有一定程度的增强,RR值分别增大0.27%、0.84%、0.69%。 (4)温度分层后,在低温、较低温、较高温条件下,PM2.5与死亡人数呈线性变化,PM2.5对人群健康的影响风险随着污染物浓度增加而线性增加。在高温条件下,PM2.5与死亡人数呈倒V型曲线变化,浓度小于60ug/m3时随着PM2.5浓度增加logRR值增加;浓度大于60ug/m3时随着PM2.5浓度增加logRR值减小。在低温,较低温和高温条件下,O3与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数呈线性变化,在较高温条件下,O3与呼吸系统疾病死亡人数的关系也呈线性但幅度较小。
Other Abstract~Air pollution has been increasing serious in recent years. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown that air pollutants seriously endangers public health, particularly to respiratory diseases. Temperature is one of the most sensitive meteorological factors to human exposure, and its variation is closely related to respiratory diseases. Therefore, it is of scientific and practical significance to study the effects of air pollutants on the mortality of respiratory diseases under different temperature conditions. Based on the data of meteorological elements, pollutant concentrations and respiratory disease deaths from 2014 to 2016 in Shenyang, a typical city in northeast China, the air temperature was classified by percentile method, and a generalized additive model (GAM) was used to evaluate the effects of PM2.5 and O3 on respiratory death at different temperatures. The relative risk (RR) of respiratory death for per increase of inter-quartile range (IQR) was used in the model, and the effects of 0-7 single-day lags (lag0-lag7) and cumulative-day lags (lag01-lag07) and sex were considered, taking into account the effects of holiday, day of the week and other confounding factors, the differences between different groups affected by pollutant concentration were compared. The main results are as follows: (1) The exposure-response of PM2.5 and O3 to respiratory mortality was linearly distributed, that is, the risk of respiratory mortality increased linearly with the concentration of pollutants. The risk of respiratory death was greater for the gaseous pollutant O3 than for the fine particulate matter PM2.5. The RR of exposure to PM2.5 and O3 was generally higher in females than in males. (2) PM2.5 had a 1-2-day and 6-day lag effects on the total, and the RR was highest at lag1, RR value was 1.016 (95% CI: 0.997, 1.035). The greatest RR was 1.037 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.117) for males and 1.018 (95% CI: 0.990,1.047) for females. O3 had the greatest RR at lag1 for the total and males, with RR values of 1.053(95% CI: 0.995, 1.114) and 1.037 (95% CI: 0.962, 1.117), respectively. O3 had a 1-3-day and 6-day lag effects for females, with the greatest RR on the second day, the RR was 1.067(95% CI: 0.981, 1.161). The cumulative lag of PM2.5 was found at lag02 and lag03, respectively. For every IQR (34ug/m3 and 52ug/m3)increase in PM2.5 and O3 concentrations, the death rate of respiratory disease increased by 1.57% and 10.28%, respectively. (3) In the multi-pollutant models, when other pollutants were introduced into PM2.5 model, the impacts on mortality of the total and females increased significantly, and RR increased by 0.29% and 0.78%. When other pollutants were introduced into the O3 pollution model, the risk of respiratory mortality increased to some extent in the total, males and females, and the RR values increased by 0.27%, 0.84% and 0.69%, respectively. (4) After temperature stratification, the relationship between PM2.5 and mortality was linear under low temperature, lower temperature and high temperature. The RR of PM2.5 on increased linearly with the concentration of pollutants. Under high temperature condition, the relationship between PM2.5 and death was inversely v-shaped. The logRR value increased with the increase of PM2.5 concentration less than 60ug/m3, and decreased with the increase of PM2.5 concentration more than 60ug/m3. In low temperature, lower temperature and higher temperature conditions, O3 and respiratory deaths showed a linear change, in high temperature conditions, O3 and respiratory deaths showed a linear change, with the increase of O3 concentration, the logRR value increased slightly, but in a small way.
Pages42
URL查看原文
Language中文
Document Type学位论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/461548
Collection大气科学学院
Affiliation大气科学学院
First Author AffilicationCollege of Atmospheric Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
赵宇瀚. 东北地区PM2.5和O3的健康效应研究[D]. 兰州. 兰州大学,2021.
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