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Physical Mechanism of Winter Temperature Multidecadal Variations in Arid Central Asia: The Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
Zheng, Fei1,2; Liu, Xiaoning3; Chen, Jianhui3; Huang, Wei3; Sun, Cheng4; Wange, Hao5
2023-11
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLIMATE   Impact Factor & Quartile
ISSN0894-8755 ; 1520-0442
Volume36Issue:21Pages:7363-7377
page numbers15
AbstractThis study investigates the influence of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) on the multidecadal variability of winter surface air temperature in arid central Asia (ACASAT). Apart from a long-term warming trend, the observational analysis shows that the winter ACASAT exhibits a significant multidecadal variability, which is characterized by antiphase fluctuations with the AMO. The mechanism for this negative correlation between the AMO and the winter ACASAT is explored from the aspect of wave teleconnection. The AMO provides energy for the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern at middle and low altitudes by regulating the high-altitude wave train over the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia, and thus has an impact on the remote climate in arid central Asia. Results from the linear baroclinic model (LBM) provide evidence for the linkage between the AMO and the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern. When the AMO is in its warm periods, the Scandinavian teleconnection pattern is in a positive phase, which further makes the cold air from the northeast strengthen, leading to the anomalously colder surface air temperature in arid central Asia. Based on the relationship that the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) leads the AMO by 15-20 years, it is further found that there is a leading relationship between the NAO and the winter ACASAT via the AMO. On this basis, an empirical model using the NAO as a predictor was established to predict the ACASAT, and the empirical model shows good hindcast performance. Results from the model show that the winter ACASAT will continue to rise in the next 10 years and decline after 2030.
KeywordAsia North Atlantic Ocean Teleconnections Climate prediction Surface temperature Multidecadal variability
PublisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0946.1
Indexed BySCIE
Language英语
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:001077388500001
Original Document TypeArticle
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/568402
Collection兰州大学
Corresponding AuthorZheng, Fei
Affiliation
1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Trop Atmosphere Ocean Syst, Minist Educ, Zhuhai 519082, Peoples R China;
2.Southern Marine Sci & Engn Guangdong Lab, Zhuhai, Peoples R China;
3.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Earth & Environm Sci, Key Lab Western Chinas Environm Syst, Minist Educ, Lanzhou, Peoples R China;
4.Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Global Change & Earth Syst Sci GCESS, Beijing, Peoples R China;
5.Ocean Univ China, Inst Adv Ocean Studies, Frontiers Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth, Key Lab Phys Oceanog,Acad Future Ocean, Qingdao, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zheng, Fei,Liu, Xiaoning,Chen, Jianhui,et al. Physical Mechanism of Winter Temperature Multidecadal Variations in Arid Central Asia: The Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2023,36(21):7363-7377.
APA Zheng, Fei,Liu, Xiaoning,Chen, Jianhui,Huang, Wei,Sun, Cheng,&Wange, Hao.(2023).Physical Mechanism of Winter Temperature Multidecadal Variations in Arid Central Asia: The Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,36(21),7363-7377.
MLA Zheng, Fei,et al."Physical Mechanism of Winter Temperature Multidecadal Variations in Arid Central Asia: The Role of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 36.21(2023):7363-7377.
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