兰州大学机构库
Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for the Risk of Cardiac Death in Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Esophageal Cancer
Lv, Xinfang1,3; Wu, Xue2,3; Liu, Kai3; Zhao, Xinke3; Pan, Chenliang4; Zhao, Jing4; Chang, Juan5; Guo, Huan6; Gao, Xiang3; Zhi, Xiaodong3; Ren, Chunzhen3; Chen, Qilin3; Jiang, Hugang3; Wang, Chunling3; Li, Yingdong3
2023-12
Source PublicationCardiovascular Toxicology   Impact Factor & Quartile
ISSN1530-7905 ; 1559-0259
EISSN1559-0259
Volume23Issue:11-12Pages:377-387
page numbers11
AbstractThe primary cause of mortality in esophageal cancer survivors is cardiac death. Early identification of cardiac mortality risk during chemotherapy for esophageal cancer is crucial for improving the prognosis. We developed and validated a nomogram model to identify patients with high cardiac mortality risk after chemotherapy for esophageal cancer for early screening and clinical decision-making. We randomly allocated 37,994 patients with chemotherapy-treated esophageal cancer into two groups using a 7:3 split ratio: model training (n = 26,598) and validation (n = 11,396). 5- and 10-year survival rates were used as endpoints for model training and validation. Decision curve analysis and the consistency index (C-index) were used to evaluate the model's net clinical advantage. Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves and computing the area under the curve (AUC). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis based on the prognostic index was performed. Patient risk was stratified according to the death probability. Age, surgery, sex, and year were most closely related to cardiac death and used to plot the nomograms. The C-index for the training and validation datasets were 0.669 and 0.698, respectively, indicating the nomogram's net clinical advantage in predicting cardiac death risk at 5 and 10 years. The 5- and 10-year AUCs were 0.753 and 0.772 for the training dataset and 0.778 and 0.789 for the validation dataset, respectively. The accuracy of the model in predicting cardiac death risk was moderate. This nomogram can identify patients at risk of cardiac death after chemotherapy for esophageal cancer at an early stage.
KeywordEsophageal cancer Chemotherapy Cardiac death Nomogram Cardio-oncology
PublisherHUMANA PRESS INC
DOI10.1007/s12012-023-09807-4
Indexed BySCIE
Language英语
WOS Research AreaCardiovascular System & Cardiology ; Toxicology
WOS SubjectCardiac & Cardiovascular Systems ; Toxicology
WOS IDWOS:001087357500003
Original Document TypeArticle
PMID 37804372
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/568705
Collection兰州大学
Corresponding AuthorLi, Yingdong
Affiliation
1.Gansu Univ Tradit Chinese Med, Dept Geriatr, Affiliated Hosp, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
2.Lanzhou Univ, Hosp 2, Dept Cardiol, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
3.Gansu Univ Chinese Med, Sch Integrat Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
4.Lanzhou Univ, Hosp 1, Cardiovasc Dis Ctr, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
5.Gansu Prov Hosp, Dept Tradit Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China;
6.Gansu Prov Acad Inst Med Res, Ctr Translat Med, Lanzhou, Gansu, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Lv, Xinfang,Wu, Xue,Liu, Kai,et al. Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for the Risk of Cardiac Death in Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Esophageal Cancer[J]. Cardiovascular Toxicology,2023,23(11-12):377-387.
APA Lv, Xinfang.,Wu, Xue.,Liu, Kai.,Zhao, Xinke.,Pan, Chenliang.,...&Li, Yingdong.(2023).Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for the Risk of Cardiac Death in Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Esophageal Cancer.Cardiovascular Toxicology,23(11-12),377-387.
MLA Lv, Xinfang,et al."Development and Validation of a Nomogram Model for the Risk of Cardiac Death in Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Esophageal Cancer".Cardiovascular Toxicology 23.11-12(2023):377-387.
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