兰州大学机构库
Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays
Li, Han1,2; Huang, Jianping1,2; Lian, Xinbo1,2; Zhao, Yingjie1,2; Yan, Wei1,2; Zhang, Li1,2; Li, Licheng1,3
2023-12
Online publication date2023-10
Source PublicationInfectious Disease Modelling   Impact Factor & Quartile
ISSN2468-0427
EISSN2468-0427
Volume8Issue:4Pages:1108-1116
page numbers9
AbstractCOVID-19 has posed formidable challenges as a significant global health crisis. Its complexity stems from factors like viral contagiousness, population density, social behaviors, governmental regulations, and environmental conditions, with interpersonal interactions and large-scale activities being particularly pivotal. To unravel these complexities, we used a modified SEIR epidemiological model to simulate various outbreak scenarios during the holiday season, incorporating both inter-regional and intra-regional human mobility effects into the parameterization scheme. In addition, evaluation metrics were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model simulation by comparing the congruence between simulated results and recorded confirmed cases. The findings suggested that intra-city mobility led to an average surge of 57.35% in confirmed cases of China, while intercity mobility contributed to an average increase of 15.18%. In the simulation for Tianjin, China, a one-week delay in human mobility attenuated the peak number of cases by 34.47% and postponed the peak time by 6 days. The simulation for the United States revealed that human mobility played a more pronounced part in the outbreak, with a notable disparity in peak cases when mobility was considered. This study highlights that while inter-regional mobility acted as a trigger for the epidemic spread, the diffusion effect of intra-regional mobility was primarily responsible for the outbreak. We have a better understanding on how human mobility and infectious disease epidemics interact, and provide empirical evidence that could contribute to disease prevention and control measures.(c) 2023 The Authors. Publishing services by Elsevier B.V. on behalf of KeAi Communications Co. Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).
KeywordCOVID-19 Modified SEIR model Human mobility Parameterization scheme
PublisherKEAI PUBLISHING LTD
DOI10.1016/j.idm.2023.10.001
Indexed ByESCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaMathematical & Computational Biology ; Infectious Diseases
WOS SubjectMathematical & Computational Biology ; Infectious Diseases
WOS IDWOS:001089644200001
Original Document TypeArticle
PMID 37859862
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttps://ir.lzu.edu.cn/handle/262010/569463
Collection兰州大学
Corresponding AuthorHuang, Jianping
Affiliation
1.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Western Ecol Safety, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;
2.Lanzhou Univ, Coll Atmospher Sci, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China;
3.Lanzhou Univ, Sch Math & Stat, Lanzhou 730000, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Han,Huang, Jianping,Lian, Xinbo,et al. Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays[J]. Infectious Disease Modelling,2023,8(4):1108-1116.
APA Li, Han.,Huang, Jianping.,Lian, Xinbo.,Zhao, Yingjie.,Yan, Wei.,...&Li, Licheng.(2023).Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays.Infectious Disease Modelling,8(4),1108-1116.
MLA Li, Han,et al."Impact of human mobility on the epidemic spread during holidays".Infectious Disease Modelling 8.4(2023):1108-1116.
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